Bowl projections: Predicting the playoff, bowls after Week 4

It's still early in the 2016 college football season, but it's not too early to project which games teams will be playing in during the postseason.

With many teams a third of the way through their regular-season schedules, the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures are starting to come into focus. Obviously a lot will change between now and the kickoff to bowl season on Dec. 17, but after making initial bowl projections before the season, we now have an idea of how things will shake out.

Here’s a reminder about how the college football postseason works. The playoff selection committee will choose the teams for the two playoff semifinals—the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl this year—and the four other marquee bowls that are part of the New Year’s Six.  The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion must play in one of those six games, and other games, such as the Rose Bowl, have conference tie-ins.

The remaining bowl games are also governed by agreements with the 10 FBS conferences, though if a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its tie-ins, that bowl can select another conference’s representative. In some cases, leagues will pool together their bowl tie-ins to create more flexibility. The Music City Bowl, for example, can choose either an ACC or Big Ten team to face an SEC opponent.

And lastly, just because a bowl may be designated to have a particular order of selection among a conference’s teams doesn’t mean it has to adhere exactly to the standings. The Alamo Bowl’s second choice among Pac-12 teams, for example, does not require it to choose the No. 2 available team from the Pac-12 standings or from the playoff committee’s rankings. Other factors, such as location, the matchup, the size of a school’s fan base and the willingness of that fan base to travel, can influence bowls’ decisions.

Wisconsin climbs into top five in Power Rankings after Week 4

New Year's Six bowls

Bowl	Date	Location	Matchup	Pick
Peach (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Atlanta	TBD vs. TBD	Alabama vs. Stan.
Fiesta (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Glendale, Ariz.	TBD vs. TBD	Ohio St. vs. FSU
Orange	Dec. 30	Miami	ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND	Clemson vs. Tenn.
Cotton	Jan. 2	Arlington, Texas	TBD vs. TBD	Houston vs. Baylor
Rose	Jan. 2	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Mich. vs. Wash.
Sugar	Jan. 2	New Orleans	SEC vs. Big 12	Texas A&M vs. TCU

• Biggest takeaways from Week 4

bowl	date	location	matchup	pick
New Mexico	Dec. 17	Albuquerque, N.M,	C-USA vs. MW	WKU vs. Colo. St.
Las Vegas	Dec. 17	Las Vegas	MW vs. Pac-12	Boise St. vs. ASU
Camellia	Dec. 17	Montgomery, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Cen. Mich. vs. Troy
Cure	Dec. 17	Orlando, Fla.	AAC vs. Sun Belt	Temple vs. ULL
New Orleans	Dec. 17	New Orleans	Sun Belt vs. C-USA	App. St. vs. USM
Miami Beach	Dec. 19	Miami	AAC vs. MAC	Cinci. vs. Ball St.
Boca Raton	Dec. 20	Boca Raton, Fla.	AAC vs. C-USA	ECU vs. MTSU
Poinsettia	Dec. 21	San Diego	BYU vs. MW	BYU vs. Air Force
Famous Idaho Potato	Dec. 22	Boise, Idaho	MAC vs. MW	Toledo vs. SDSU
Bahamas	Dec. 23	Nassau, Bahamas	AAC vs. MAC	UConn vs. Ohio
Armed Forces	Dec. 23	Fort Worth, Texas	Big 12 vs. Navy	Tex. Tech vs. Navy
Dollar General	Dec. 23	Mobile, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	WMU vs. GSU
Hawaii	Dec. 24	Honolulu	C-USA vs. MW	Old Dom. vs. Nev.
St. Petersburg	Dec. 26	St. Petersburg, Fla.	ACC vs. AAC	Army* vs. USF
Quick Lane	Dec. 26	Detroit	ACC vs. Big Ten	W. Forest vs. PSU
Independence	Dec. 26	Shreveport, La.	ACC vs. SEC	NC State vs. Cal*
Heart of Dallas	Dec. 27	Dallas	Big Ten vs. C-USA	Maryland vs. Marshall
Military	Dec. 27	Annapolis, Md.	ACC vs. AAC	Ga. Tech vs. Mem.
Holiday	Dec. 27	San Diego	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Mich. St. vs. UCLA
Cactus	Dec. 27	Phoenix	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Kansas St. vs. USC
Pinstripe	Dec. 28	New York	ACC vs. Big Ten	Pitt. vs. Minn.
Russell Athletic	Dec. 28	Orlando, Fla.	ACC vs. Big 12	U of L vs. Ok. St.
Foster Farms	Dec. 28	Santa Clara, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Indiana vs. Oregon
Texas	Dec. 28	Houston	Big 12 vs. SEC	Texas vs. Missouri
Birmingham	Dec. 29	Birmingham, Ala.	AAC vs. SEC	Tulsa vs. FAU*
Belk	Dec. 29	Charlotte, N.C.	ACC vs. SEC	UNC vs. Auburn
Alamo	Dec. 29	San Antonio	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Oklahoma vs. Utah
Arizona	Dec. 30	Tucson, Ariz.	MW vs. Sun Belt	E. Mich.* vs. Idaho
Liberty	Dec. 30	Memphis, Tenn.	Big 12 vs. SEC	W. Virginia vs. LSU
Sun	Dec. 30	El Paso, Texas	ACC vs. Pac-12	VT vs. Colo.
Music City	Dec. 30	Nashville, Ten..	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Iowa vs. Georgia
TaxSlayer	Dec. 31	Jacksonville, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Miami vs. Ole Miss
Citrus	Dec. 31	Orlando, Fla.	Big Ten/ACC vs. SEC	Wisc. vs. Arkansas
Outback	Jan. 2	Tampa, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Neb. vs. Florida

*Replacement team