Mock draft: What if NFL teams drafted based only on college on-field production?

How would the first round of the NFL draft go if teams only evaluated players based on their college stats? Well for starters, Deshaun Watson would easily be the first overall choice.
Author:
Publish date:

It’s perfectly reasonable that NFL scouts and college football fans would assess top talent differently. Scouts are making a projection of what the player could become over an NFL career against pro talent. College is about the immediate—what has a player done and against whom did he do it?

Still, it’s always a little jarring watching the NFL draft speculation play out over debates that seem rather lopsided to avid college football viewers (like why is Joshua Dobbs be discussed as a possible first-round pick?). So as an exercise for an alternate universe, it’s interesting to imagine how the first round might play out if NFL teams only looked what college players had done on the field. No 40 times, no hand size, no questions about whether players can handle the verbiage of the offense—just on-field production.

For this, we’ll consider the real needs NFL teams will be looking to fill in the draft. But rather than selecting who projects to have the best pro career at those spots, they’ll take the players with the best college careers. (For a projection of how the draft might actually go, check out Chris Burke's latest Mock Draft.)

Image placeholder title

1. Deshaun Watson

RECORD: QB, Clemson

Myles Garrett may be the obvious No. 1 pick in the real draft, but if we’re looking at college on-field production only, no one took over games like Watson.

Image placeholder title

2. Jonathan Allen

RECORD: DE, Alabama

The top pure defensive player in college football last season, Allen could join DeForest Buckner as young anchors on the Niners’ defensive line.

Image placeholder title

3. Jabrill Peppers

RECORD: DB, Michigan

The Bears solve their need for a defensive playmaker by drafting Peppers. Safety? Cornerback? Linebacker? Whatever position Peppers is, the Bears could use some help.

Image placeholder title

4. Dalvin Cook

RECORD: RB, Florida State

The Jags need a dynamic back to take some of the pressure off Blake Bortles, so they spring for Cook, turning to a Florida State star for their first-round pick for the second straight year.

Image placeholder title

5. Dede Westbrook

RECORD: WR, Oklahoma

Marcus Mariota could use another weapon on the outside to pair with Rishard Matthews, so this is a perfect landing spot for Westbrook, the Heisman Trophy finalist who racked up 1,524 receiving yards last season.

Image placeholder title

6. Adoree' Jackson

RECORD: CB, USC

The jack-of-all-trade Jackson fills several holes for the Jets. Mainly he steps in to help shore up the secondary, but perhaps Todd Bowles throws him out on offense for a few plays, too.

Image placeholder title

7. Malik Hooker

RECORD: S, Ohio State

The Chargers fill their biggest need with Hooker, the top safety in the draft, who nabbed seven interceptions, including three pick-sixes.

Image placeholder title

8. Christian McCaffrey

RECORD: RB, Stanford

The Panthers could use help in their rushing and receiving options, so why not grab the college player who excelled at both? McCaffrey racked up 3,622 rushing yards and 955 receiving yards in the past two seasons.

Image placeholder title

9. Myles Garrett

RECORD: DE, Texas A&M

If this mock draft is based purely on college performance, you might argue why not take someone like Derek Barnett who topped Garrett in sacks (13.0 to 8.5) and tackles for loss (19.0 to 15.0) last season against similar competition? Barnett was dominant (as his pick at No. 12 indicates), but few players could take over a game like Garrett could when he was healthy.

Image placeholder title

10. Corey Davis

RECORD: WR, Western Michigan

The FBS record-holder for receiving yards in a career forms a perfect partnership with Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor won’t be able to use his receiving options as an excuse with this pair in place.

Image placeholder title

11. Jourdan Lewis

RECORD: CB, Michigan

With arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL last season, the Saints must address their secondary. Lewis, the Big Ten’s defensive back of the year, is a good place to start.

Image placeholder title

12. Derek Barnett

RECORD: DE, Tennessee

Having already addressed their QB needs with Watson at No. 1, the Browns turn their sights toward their pass rush and select one of the most productive defensive ends in the country last season.

Image placeholder title

13. Patrick Mahomes

RECORD: QB, Texas Tech

Figuring out who was the second-most productive college quarterback in this draft class is tough because of the elite passers coming back (Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Jake Browning, Mason Rudolph, etc.). But it’s hard to argue with the ridiculous numbers Mahomes put up over the last two years (9,505 passing yards, 77 touchdowns).

Image placeholder title

14. Leonard Fournette

RECORD: RB, LSU

The Eagles will likely go cornerback or running back with this pick, but with Jackson and Lewis off the board and Fournette still on it, this is an easy decision.

Image placeholder title

15. Reuben Foster

RECORD: LB, Alabama

The Colts’ defense allowed six yards per play last year, so this unit needs plenty of help. Foster is the perfect type of player to build around because he’ll fly to the ball to make tackles and can also help in coverage.

Image placeholder title

16. Tim Williams

RECORD: LB, Alabama

The Ravens released Elvis Dumervil, so they could use a new linebacker who knows how to get to the quarterback. With 18.5 sacks over the past two seasons, Williams fits the bill.

Image placeholder title

17. DeMarcus Walker

RECORD: DE, Florida State

The Redskins’ defensive line rebuild could use some youth, and Walker might be the top overall player still on the board, so this is a good match.

Image placeholder title

18. Desmond King

RECORD: CB, Iowa

The Titans are in the market for a cornerback after Jason McCourty’s release. King was so good in 2015, when he intercepted eight passes, that quarterbacks almost entirely stopped throwing on him in 2016.

Image placeholder title

19. D'Onta Foreman

RECORD: RB, Texas

The workhorse back from Texas is the best value here to make Doug Martin expendable.

Image placeholder title

20. Cam Robinson

RECORD: OT, Alabama

Robinson becomes the first offensive lineman off the board and could step into a starting left tackle spot right away in Denver.

Image placeholder title

21. T.J. Watt

RECORD: LB, Wisconsin

The Lions could use an injection of talent on defense, and Watt could start right away after racking up 14.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks last season at Wisconsin.

Image placeholder title

22. Ryan Anderson

RECORD: LB, Alabama

Anderson was an incredibly productive outside linebacker at Alabama, finishing the 2016 season with 18.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. He could partner with Kiko Alonso and Lawrence Timmons in the Dolphins’ linebacking corps.

Image placeholder title

23. Malik McDowell

RECORD: DT, Michigan State

Johnathan Hankins’s departure increases the Giants’ need to address defensive tackle early in the draft, so they nab the No. 1 DT on the board.

Image placeholder title

24. Zach Cunningham

RECORD: LB, Vanderbilt

Cunningham is a steal this late in the first round, as the playmaker is coming off a season in which he recorded 119 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and a blocked kick.

Image placeholder title

25. Mitchell Trubisky

RECORD: QB, North Carolina

The Texans are desperate for a quarterback, and while Trubisky doesn’t have the lengthy track record of Watson and Mahomes, his 2016 season (68% completion rate, 3,748 yards passing, 30 touchdowns, six interceptions) was impressive.

Image placeholder title

26. Teez Tabor

RECORD: CB, Florida

The Seahawks need to rebuild in the secondary, and Tabor—who talks a big game and has the production to back it up—should fit right in.

Image placeholder title

27. Donnel Pumphrey

RECORD: RB, San Diego State

As the only player in this draft class who finished in the top 10 of the Heisman vote still on the board, Pumphrey brings great value this late in the first round. He could be the perfect counterpart to Spencer Ware to keep Ware from getting worn down like he did last season.

Image placeholder title

28. Solomon Thomas

RECORD: DE, Stanford

Thomas had a breakout season in 2016, finishing the year with 14.0 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. He bolsters the Cowboys’ pass rush.

Image placeholder title

29. Marshon Lattimore

RECORD: CB, Ohio State

The Packers have to address their secondary after allowing a league-worst 8.1 yards per attempt, so they opt for Lattimore who shined in his lone season as a starter with nine passes broken up and four interceptions.

Image placeholder title

30. Cordrea Tankersley

RECORD: CB, Clemson

After placing three defensive backs in last year’s draft, Clemson sends Tankersley to the Steelers, who draft a cornerback in the first round for the second straight year.

Image placeholder title

31. Hunter Dimick

RECORD: DE, Utah

Vic Beasley needs some help, and Dimick has been one of the most productive defensive ends when he’s been on the field the past three seasons. He had 13.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks as a sophomore in 2014, and after an injury-shortened 2015, he came back to make 19.5 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks last season.

Image placeholder title

32. Takkarist McKinley

RECORD: DE, UCLA

Having addressed their secondary earlier in the first, the Saints turn to their defensive line that recorded just 30 sacks last season. McKinley put up a monstrous season in 2016 (18 tackles for loss, 10 sacks) that flew a little under the radar due to UCLA’s struggles.