Bowl Projections: Hurricane Scheduling Havoc Shouldn't Cloud Teams' Hopes
Let’s start with this: As much of the southeastern United States deals with the effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the absolute last thing on the minds of the schools, teams and fans that were in the storms’ paths should be bowl eligibility.
Six games were cancelled in the first two weeks of the season due to the two hurricanes, two more scheduled for Week 3 have already been called off as the state of Florida continues to assess the damage, and Miami’s scheduled primetime showdown with Florida State has been postponed until Oct. 7. (More cancellations and moves could come down as Irma works its way north; Florida and Tennessee plan to play in Gainesville as scheduled after some uncertainty.) As their focus eventually returns to football, some fans may be wondering if the games wiped off the schedule will come back to haunt them in November as their teams make a final push for bowl bids—would that scrapped paycheck game have provided an all-important sixth win?
First and foremost, keeping alive the chance of a trip to the Dollar General Bowl is not worth endangering the lives of teams, staff and spectators. Setting that aside, however, a glance at the programs and games affected by Harvey and Irma so far reveals that this year’s six-win cut line could be safe from many close calls. Barring complete dysfunction down the stretch, Florida, Florida State, Miami and South Florida should be comfortably heading for winning seasons, with or without all of their September games. Houston, UTSA, Arkansas State, Memphis and UCF (which has had two games completely cancelled) are strong Group of Five teams that also shouldn’t have much trouble finishing the year above .500.
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The two Power 5 teams with the biggest question marks are Georgia Tech and Indiana. The Hoosiers say they are “working diligently” to see if they can find a last-minute opponent for their previously scheduled Oct. 7 bye week after Florida International was forced to cancel this Saturday’s game (on Tuesday afternoon, they found a dance partner in Charleston Southern); the Yellow Jackets have not publicly stated any similar efforts after losing this week’s trip to UCF, which has offered up its campus and stadium as a staging area for the National Guard.
With five home games and manageable road trips to Virginia and Duke left, just one upset of Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech or Georgia should put Georgia Tech at six wins. Indiana’s Big Ten schedule turns nasty after a non-conference game against Georgia Southern on Sept. 23, but the Hoosiers finish out the regular season with three very winnable games (at Illinois, vs. Rutgers, at Purdue) and should take heart in how tough they played Ohio State in the season opener before the Buckeyes pulled away. What’s more, both Georgia Tech (No. 16) and Indiana (No. 19) sit in the FBS’s top 20 of this year’s Academic Progress Rate scores, putting them near the front of the line for the bowl bids handed out to five-win teams if not enough teams reach six wins. (UCF sits 12th in the rankings, should the Knights need some help.)
All this is to say, fretting over the quest for six wins as those in the path of devastating storms recover and rebuild is not worth the time. The latest bowl projections through Week 2’s action:
Saturday, Dec. 16
R + L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, New Orleans (1 p.m., ESPN)
Sun Belt vs. C-USA
Louisiana Monroe vs. UAB
AutoNation Cure Bowl, Orlando, Fla. (2:30 p.m., CBSSN)
AAC vs. Sun Belt
Tulane vs. Coastal Carolina
Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas (3:30 p.m., ABC)
MWC vs. Pac-12
Boise State vs. Colorado
Gildan New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque (4:30 p.m., ESPN)
C-USA vs. MWC
Western Kentucky vs. Air Force
Raycom Media Camelia Bowl, Montgomery, Ala. (8 p.m., ESPN)
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State
Tuesday, Dec. 19
Boca Raton Bowl, Boca Raton, Fla. (7 p.m., ESPN)
AAC vs. C-USA
SMU vs. Middle Tennessee
Wednesday, Dec. 20
Frisco Bowl, Frisco, Texas (8 p.m., ESPN)
AAC vs. Sun Belt
Houston vs. Troy
Thursday, Dec. 21
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl, St. Petersburg, Fla. (8 p.m., ESPN)
C-USA vs. AAC
Old Dominion vs. Memphis
Friday, Dec. 22
Bahamas Bowl, Nassau, Bahamas (12:30 p.m., ESPN)
C-USA vs. MAC
Louisiana Tech vs. Eastern Michigan
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise (4 p.m., ESPN)
MAC vs. MWC
Western Michigan vs. Colorado State
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Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl, Birmingham, Ala. (12 p.m., ESPN)
AAC vs. SEC
South Florida vs. Vanderbilt
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, Texas (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Army vs. C-USA
Army vs. Southern Miss
Dollar General Bowl, Mobile, Ala. (7 p.m., ESPN)
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Toledo vs. Appalachian State
Sunday, Dec. 24
Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu, (8:30 p.m., ESPN)
AAC vs. MWC
UCF vs. Hawaii
Tuesday, Dec. 26
Heart of Dallas Bowl, Dallas (1:30 p.m., ESPN)
Big 12 vs. C-USA
Tulsa vs. UTSA
Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit (5:15 p.m., ESPN)
ACC vs. Big Ten
Georgia Tech vs. Minnesota
Cactus Bowl, Phoenix (9 p.m., ESPN)
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Texas Tech vs. Utah
Wednesday, Dec. 27
Independence Bowl, Shreveport, La. (1:30 p.m., ESPN)
ACC vs. SEC
Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M
New Era Pinstripe Bowl, New York (5:15 p.m., ESPN)
ACC vs. Big Ten
Syracuse vs. Maryland
Foster Farms Bowl, Santa Clara, Calif. (8 p.m., FOX)
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Iowa vs. Oregon
Texas Bowl, Houston (9 p.m., ESPN)
Big 12 vs. SEC
Texas vs. Missouri
Thursday, Dec. 28
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman, Annapolis, Md. (1:30 p.m., ESPN)
ACC vs. AAC
Pittsburgh vs. Navy
Camping World Bowl, Orlando, Fla. (5:15 p.m., ESPN)
ACC vs. Big 12
Miami vs. West Virginia
Valero Alamo Bowl, Big 12 vs. Pac-12, San Antonio, 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Pac-12 vs. Big 12
UCLA vs. TCU
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl, San Diego (9 p.m., FS1)
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Nebraska vs. Stanford
Friday, Dec. 29
Belk Bowl, Charlotte, N.C. (1 p.m., ESPN)
ACC vs. SEC
Duke vs. Florida
Hyundai Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas (2 p.m., CBS)
ACC vs. Pac-12
NC State vs. Washington State
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Nashville, Tenn. (4:30 p.m., ESPN)
SEC vs. Big Ten or ACC
South Carolina vs. Michigan State
Arizona Bowl, Tucson, Ariz. (5:30 p.m., CBSSN)
Sun Belt vs. MWC
Idaho vs. Wyoming
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Saturday, Dec. 30
TaxSlayer Bowl, Jacksonville, Fla. (12 p.m., ESPN)
SEC vs. Big Ten or ACC
Mississippi State vs. Virginia Tech
AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Memphis, Tenn. (12:30 p.m., ABC)
Big 12 vs. SEC
Kansas State vs. Tennessee
Monday, Jan. 1, 2018
Outback Bowl, Tampa, Fla. (12 p.m., ESPN2)
Big Ten vs. SEC
Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Fla. (1 p.m., ABC)
SEC vs. ACC
Georgia vs. Florida State
New Year's Six Bowls
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Arlington, Texas (Dec. 29, 8:30 p.m., ESPN)
At-large vs. At-large
San Diego State vs. Oklahoma State
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Ariz. (Dec. 30, 4 p.m., ESPN)
At-large vs. At-large
Washington vs. Michigan
Capital One Orange Bowl, Miami Gardens, Fla. (Dec. 30, 8 p.m., ESPN)
ACC vs. Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame
Louisville vs. Ohio State
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Atlanta (Jan. 1, 12:30 p.m., ESPN)
At-large vs. At-Large
USC vs. LSU
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual, Pasadena, Calif. (Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN)
CFP semifinalist vs. CFP semifinalist
Clemson vs. Penn State
Allstate Sugar Bowl, New Orleans (Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN)
CFP semifinalist vs. CFP semifinalist
Alabama vs. Oklahoma
College Football Playoff National Championship, Atlanta (Jan. 8, 8 p.m., ESPN)
CFP semifinal winner vs. CFP semifinal winner
