The 10 NBA Draft Decisions That Could Shape the Next College Basketball Season

The jury is still out as to whether some of college basketball’s top players will return next year.

The NCAA’s early entry withdrawal deadline for NBA prospects to decide whether to return to school is just a week away, and several of the sport’s highest-profile players are on the fence. These stay-or-go decisions will have a huge impact on the 2023–24 college basketball season and also could shape how the second round of the NBA draft shakes out.

Here’s a look at the 10 most impactful decisions to monitor with decisions coming soon.

Zach Edey, Purdue

Edey could become the second straight National Player of the Year to return to school after Oscar Tshiebwe was the first in more than a decade to do so. Edey’s decision is a tricky one on a multitude of levels, though. He’s a force of nature on both ends in the college game, but it seems unlikely he can do anything at Purdue that will materially change his draft stock given questions about his mobility and fit in the modern NBA game. The pull of college for Edey is a chance to cement his Purdue legacy and get revenge for this year’s stunning upset loss to Fairleigh Dickinson in the NCAA tournament. There’s also the complication that, since Edey wasn’t born in the United States, paying him via NIL requires some workarounds. If he returns, he’ll be the consensus preseason player of the year, and the Boilermakers will be in everyone’s top 10. If not, he projects as a second-round pick and could very well go undrafted. 

Oscar Tshiebwe and Antonio Reeves, Kentucky

Kentucky has a loaded freshman class incoming, but the decisions of these two veterans will have a huge impact on the Wildcats’ season. Tshiebwe had a pair of productive scrimmages at the NBA draft combine, but still is a questionable fit in the NBA due to his struggles defending in space and lack of floor-spacing ability. Kentucky swung for Hunter Dickinson in the portal, but after losing that battle to Kansas could really use a Tshiebwe return to avoid having an incredibly inexperienced frontcourt. Even after a disappointing 2022–23, Tshiebwe is still one of the best bigs in college basketball.

Reeves’s decision also looms large. Kentucky has brought in a pair of high-usage freshman guards in D.J. Wagner and Robert Dillingham, but could really use a veteran shotmaker as a complementary option in the starting lineup or as a bench shooting weapon. Reeves shot 40% from deep at high volume in 2022–23. Kentucky also has only 10 scholarship players currently committed for ’23–24 including Tshiebwe and Reeves, so losing either or both would be a considerable blow just from a depth standpoint. 

Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois

Shannon had a monster year in his first with the Illini, averaging more than 17 points per game to rebuild his draft stock into a potential selection in the top half of the second round. That said, Shannon is open to a return to school, where he’d get a chance to play out his final year of eligibility in his home state.

Much of Illinois’s roster maneuvering this spring has appeared to be about maximizing Shannon’s abilities as a slasher. The Illini added low-maintenance glue guys Justin Harmon (Utah Valley) and Marcus Domask (Southern Illinois) and are heavily involved with top available point guard RayJ Dennis. A Shannon return around those guys would make Illinois a legitimate Big Ten contender on paper, but without him it might lack the offensive firepower to be in the league’s upper half. 

Andre Jackson Jr. and Tristen Newton, UConn

Two starters from the Huskies’ championship team in 2023 are on the fence about a potential return to Storrs. Jackson was in many ways the linchpin of UConn’s March dominance, impacting the game in so many ways with his athleticism, defensive versatility and passing to rise up NBA boards despite his inconsistent jump shot. He’s a fringe first-round pick and seems more likely than not to stay in the draft. Meanwhile, Newton had an inconsistent season but shined at times, including his 19 points, 10 rebounds and four assists in the national title game. He said during the G League Elite Camp he was looking for a guarantee he’d be selected to stay in the draft, likely signaling his return for his final year of eligibility with the Huskies.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Marquette

Prosper averaged 12.5 points per game on 51% from the field in his second season with Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles.

Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY Sports

Prosper was as big a standout as any at the combine, testing well and having an impressive first scrimmage before shutting things down on Day 2 of five-on-five. That move is generally an indicator that a player is comfortable with their current draft stock, and Prosper has certainly played his way into a potential guaranteed contract and maybe even the first-round conversation as a big, versatile wing player. Marquette does have talented wing-forward David Joplin to potentially plug into Prosper’s spot in the starting lineup should he depart, but that swap would be a downgrade defensively and a blow to the Golden Eagles’ depth. The biggest components of Marquette’s elite offense in 2022–23 in point guard Tyler Kolek, wing Kam Jones and big man Oso Ighodaro are all still slated to return. 

Kobe Brown, Missouri

After a strong senior season under Dennis Gates, Brown has worked himself into strong draft pick consideration should he stay in this year’s draft. He doesn’t have a traditional frame for a wing, but possesses the type of all-around skill set that gives him a chance to be a valuable NBA player in the mold of burlier wings like Grant Williams and David Roddy at the next level. If he returns, Brown has a chance to be among the best players in the nation. His return decision could also include deciding whether to enter the transfer portal as a grad transfer, and he didn’t shut down that possibility when asked about it at the combine. 

Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Creighton’s trip to the Elite Eight in 2023 was historic for the program, but the Bluejays’ chances of competing for a second straight trip rely on the return of these two all-conference talents. Kalkbrenner is one of the most impactful players in the sport: Creighton was more than 18 points per 100 possessions better against top-100 teams with Kalkbrenner on the floor than off thanks to his rim protection skills defensively. He’s also a major lob threat offensively, and at his pro day in Chicago showed off his improving three-point shot.

Meanwhile, Alexander is one of the better returning guards in the Big East, a savvy combo guard who can make shots and is good at getting to his spots despite lacking elite burst. He’d form one of the better backcourt duos in the country next season if he returns next to Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth and veteran wing Baylor Scheierman. 

Reece Beekman, Virginia

One of the best defensive players in college basketball, Beekman’s stay-or-go choice will have a significant impact on the ACC title race in 2023–24. With Kihei Clark and Armaan Franklin departing, the Cavaliers will have a new-look backcourt, but have the requisite young talent to be among the ACC’s best if their defensive linchpin in Beekman returns. He’s not a high-level shotmaker, but Beekman’s ability to disrupt the game on defense and create for others popped in college and at the combine. A big year could vault Beekman into the first-round conversation in a weaker ’24 draft, but he’d at worst be in line for a two-way contract if he stays in this year’s draft. 

PJ Hall, Clemson

Hall had a good week in front of NBA executives in Chicago after getting bumped up from the G League Elite Camp to the main combine. That had to leave Clemson coach Brad Brownell on pins and needles given the importance of Hall to his 2023–24 team. Should he return, Hall profiles as one of the ACC’s best bigs, a weapon offensively who fits well with the Tigers’ backcourt duo of Chase Hunter and Joe Girard III thanks to his ability to space the floor. This year is likely NCAA tournament or bust for Brownell’s job security, and losing Hall late would be a devastating blow. 

Keyontae Johnson, Kansas State

Johnson seems focused on the NBA process, but the primary variable at play here is whether he gets cleared by the NBA’s panel of medical experts after he suffered cardiac arrest on the floor during a 2020 game while playing for Florida. Johnson says he expects to find out soon whether he has been cleared. If he isn’t, a return to Kansas State is on the table. He had a monster year playing for Jerome Tang in ’22–23 and would be a top contender for Big 12 Player of the Year should he be back in Manhattan next season.