Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer Could Lead Mets to Playoffs
The magic in the Mets’ team development hasn’t clicked over the last five years, leading to no trips to the postseason. They’ve had a top ace (Jacob deGrom) for eight years, but New York has been unable to capitalize on his greatness. The Mets did lose in the World Series in 2015 when deGrom dominated over his first three starts (3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 27 strikeouts over 20 innings) in the playoffs. They have two World Series titles (1969 and 1986) while making the postseason nine times in the team's 60-year history.
New York’s pitching staff and its bullpen finished with the identical ranking (ninth) and ERA (3.90). Their relievers had 45 wins, 28 losses and 41 saves. However, the Mets ranked 27th in runs (636), 25th in home runs (176) and 26th in stolen bases.
In the offseason, New York lost 2B Javier Baez (DET), SP Marcus Stroman (CHC), 3B Jonathan Villar, SP Rich Hill (BOS), RP Aaron Loup (LAA), OF Michael Conforto, OF Kevin Pillar, SP Noah Syndergaard (LAA), RP Brad Hand, RP Robert Gsellman, RP Jeurys Familia and RP Dellin Betances to free agency. The Mets signed OF Starling Marte, 3B Eduardo Escobar, SP Max Scherzer and OF Mark Canha.
The top of their starting lineup has the chance to be very good. 1B Pete Alonso should have many more RBI chances with the addition of Marte and a healthy season out of SS Francisco Lindor. New York needs bounce-back seasons from 2B Jeff McNeil and 3B J.D. Davis. OF Dominic Smith, OF Mark Canha and 3B Eduardo Escobar had power and length to their offense.
If deGrom bounces back from his elbow injury, New York has a pair of aces to lead them to the playoffs and possibly a World Series title. SP Trevor Megill should be much better this year, while SP Taijuan Walker and SP Carlos Carrasco will keep New York in many games when healthy.
The ninth inning should be in good hands with RP Edwin Diaz, but he underachieved his resume with Seattle twice over the past three years. Their top two setup men (Trevor May and Seth Lugo) have talent and upside, but the Mets need to find a serviceable lefty reliever and develop the rest of the bullpen.
If New York stays healthy in 2022, they will make the postseason.
Starting Lineup
OF Starling Marte
Despite missing 42 games last season, Marte ranked eighth in SIscore (7.22) for hitters, with 6.62 of his ranking points coming from his 47 stolen bases. Over the past three years, he scored 222 runs while being on base 448 times (45.7%). His walk rate (8.2) was the best of his career, but Marte had a much lower average (5.3) in his time in the majors. His strikeout rate (18.3) has been favorable over the previous seven seasons.
His missed games last year came from a fractured rib in mid-April.
Marte had regression in his average hit rate (1.476) due to a rising ground ball rate (54.8 – 51.1 in his career) and a shallow launch angle (4.6 – 299th). He also had weakness in his barrel rate (8.4 – 146th) and hard-hit rate (39.6 – 173rd). However, his contact batting average (.394) was well above his past four seasons (.346, .344, .357 and .342), suggesting his batting average (.310) from last year isn’t repeatable.
His best value came against right-handed pitching (.328 with seven home runs and 41 RBI over 317 at-bats). Marte stole 39 of his 47 bases over a 294 at-bat stretch over the summer.
Fantasy Outlook
The bottom line with Marte’s fantasy value in 2022 is a green light on the base paths. He’ll start the year at age 33 while stealing 89 bags over 1,635 at-bats from 2017-20 (projects to about 30 for 550 at-bats). In his best two power seasons, his launch angle (8.7) was nearly double last year. Marte has never scored over 100 runs and he missed 174 games over the past five seasons. His ADP (30) fits his profile and previous major-league resume. I’ll set his bar at .280 with 100 runs, 15 home runs, 70 RBI and 30 steals.
SS Francisco Lindor
Lindor went down as a double jeopardy pick in 2021. He stumbled out of the gate over the first half of the year (.212 with 40 runs, nine home runs, 26 RBI and six stolen bases over 278 at-bats). Two weeks into July, an oblique injury pushed him to the injury list for five weeks. In September, he tried to save his season with an uptick in play (.257/23/9/25 over 113 at-bats), but most investors fell out of contention weeks ago.
His average hit rate (1.788) remained strong, thanks to a jump in his fly-ball rate (42.0 – 36.5 in his career). Lindor ranked poorly in barrel rate (8.2 – 154th) with a higher rating in his hard-hit rate (44.1 – 87th).
He finished with a new top in his walk rate (11.1), but his strikeout rate (18.3) rose for the fourth consecutive year. Over his last 688 at-bats, Lindor saw his contact batting average (.299) fall well below his success from 2017 to 2019 (.329).
Fantasy Outlook
After two disappointing years and a slide in his stolen base output, Lindor has a much higher ADP (49) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. However, he ranked 22nd (6.14), fifth (10.73) and 18th (5.61) in SIscore for hitters from 2017-19, pointing to him being a slight value this season. The addition of Marte should create more running opportunities on the base paths. The Mets will hit him in the top third of their lineup, putting him on a path to hit .270 with 110 runs, 30 home runs, 80 runs and15 steals. I expect him to have a bounce-back season and he is on my buy list.
1B Pete Alonso
Last year, Alonso was the 42nd-ranked hitter by SIscore (2.38), which fell in line with his 2021 ADP (57) in the NFBC. Despite New York having underperforming players hitting in front of him in the lineup, he still came to the plate with 440 runners on base. Unfortunately, Alonso offered a below-par RBI rate (14) for the second straight season. With his 2019 RBI rate (17), he would have driven in 15 more runs.
His strikeout rate (19.9) was much better than his first two seasons (26.4 and 25.5) with the Mets and above his short minor-league resume (20.3 over 1,090 plate appearances). In addition, Alonso continues to have strength in his walk rate (9.4 – 9.9 in his career).
He has a fly-ball swing path (42.5), but his HR/FB rate (19.7) came in below 2019 (30.6) and 2020 (24.6). Alonso finished 55th in hard-hit rate (47.3) and 29th in barrel rate (14.8). His contact batting average (.339) offered a higher ceiling from 2017-19 (.362, .389 and .374) in the minors and majors.
Fantasy Outlook
Alonso looked poised to become a beast power hitter with more growth in his batting average. He has the best home run swing in baseball and I expect another run at 50 dongs. Marte and Lindor should get on base well over 400 times, creating an elite RBI opportunity for Alonso. His ADP (55) in January in the NFBC screams value. Start the bidding at .280 with 100 runs, 45 home runs and 120 RBI.
OF Dominic Smith
After a productive 354 at-bats (.299 with 62 runs, 21 home runs and 67 RBI) in 2019-20, Smith finished as a disappointment last year. He had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.326 – .400 over the previous two years) and his average hit rate (1.486 – 1.906 in 2019-20).
Smith continues to have a low fly-ball rate (35.6) while losing momentum in his HR/FB rate (9.1 – 22.2 in 2020). Additionally, his barrel rate (6.5 – 205th) was well below 2020 (12.6 – 45th). He started the year with a sore right wrist while only having a minor knee issue in May.
His strikeout rate (22.7) has been about the same over the past three seasons. Smith has a sliding walk rate (6.5). On the positive side, he hit for average against lefties (.312 with two home runs and 20 RBI over 125 at-bats).
His bat had the most production over seven weeks in June and July (.265/24/9/27/2).
Fantasy Outlook
The DH in the National League is a clear win for Smith. He’ll also fill in at first base and the outfield. Unfortunately, his ADP (411) in the NFBC doesn’t account for the DH change to the NL. Even with a rise in price point, Smith should easily outperform his draft value. He has the skill set to hit .290 with 30 home runs with 550 at-bats. However, the Mets have some overlapping players, so a slow start could lead to some days on the bench.
2B Robinson Cano
After 2020, Major League Baseball suspended Cano for the whole 2021 season for testing positive for a PED (stanozolol). As a result, he enters this year with questions about his bat and opportunity. Cano needs 376 hits to reach 3,000, which looked like a given after 2017 (2,376 hits).
He missed 82 games in 2018, 55 in 2018 and 11 in 2019. Over his previous 871 at-bats, Cano hit .285 with 13 runs, 33 home runs and 119 RBI. He was tough to strike out (13.2%) in 2020 while an 11-year low in his walk rate (5.0 – 6.5 in his career).
Fantasy Outlook
The Mets owe Cano $48 million over the next two seasons with a no-trade clause. He projects as their starting second baseman, but Cano could slide over to DH if that is better for the team. His ADP (511) puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft formats. In 2020, Cano ranked 64th for hitters in SIscore (-0.04). At this point, I don’t see 282 players better than him, but no JUICE in his swing could lead to more down days.
3B Eduardo Escobar
Other than 2020, Escobar played his best ball after the age of 27. His breakout season came in 2019 when he set career highs across the board. Last year, he finished with his second-highest totals in runs (77), home runs (28) and RBI (90).
His approach almost matched the league average while continuing to have strength in his average hit rate (1.863). Escobar had most of his production over the first four months (.244 with 52 runs, 23 home runs and 66 RBI over 377 at-bats). In addition, he played well vs. lefties (.295/9/25 over 149 at-bats).
Escobar hit the most fly-balls (47.1%) of his career while offering more loft on his swing since 2017. In his best two seasons in power, he had a mid-tier HR/FB rate (15.2 and 14.0). His launch angle (20.8 – 12th) ranks high, but Escobar doesn’t have an edge in his hard-hit rate (34.5 – 242nd).
Fantasy Outlook
With the Mets, Escobar may not have as high of an opportunity as he did in 2018, 2019 and 2021. His bat is clearly improved in power, but a drop to a lower spot in the batting order and 10% fewer at-bats puts him on a path for 65 runs, 20 home runs and 70 RBI. The increase in fly balls leads to more drag in his batting average. His ADP (191) in the NFBC in January is too high for my expectations. I also believe J.D. Davis has a higher ceiling if he can stay healthy.
2B Jeff McNeil
After a breakthrough season in 2019 (.318 with 23 home runs and 75 RBI), McNeil lost his power stroke (11 home runs and 58 RBI) over his last 569 at-bats.
His walk rate (6.8) regressed last year with a slight dip in his strikeout rate – 13.6). McNeil ranked poorly for the second straight year in his hard-hit rate (33.4 – 26.5 in 2020). His barrel rate (4.3 – 262nd) almost matched 2019 (4.8 – 243rd). Last year, he had a career-high groundball rate (46.6) with more fade in his HR/FB rate (6.5).
Over his first three years in New York, McNeil hit .319 with 137 runs, 30 home runs, 117 RBI and 12 steals over 918 at-bats.
His season started with an empty 102 at-bats (.245 with 13 runs, three home runs and eight RBI) before landing on the injured list for five weeks with a hamstring issue. Over his final 88 games, McNeil hit .254 with 35 runs, four home runs and 27 RBI.
Fantasy Outlook
A bounce-back batting average should be expected based on his history in contact batting average (.368 in 2018, .372 in 2019, .358 in 2020 and .296 in 2021). However, I’m not convinced his power will have the same correction due to his Stat cast data highlighted above. His ADP (319) is well below 2020 (85). Finding late batting average tends to be a challenge, so McNeil should have a circle around his name on cheat sheets for many fantasy team builds. The Mets should give him chances much higher in the batting order when his bat is rhythm. I’ll lower his floor to .300 with 75 runs, 15 home runs, 70 RBI and a handful of steals.
OF Mark Canha
Last year, the A’s gave Canha the best starting opportunity of his career. He set career highs in at-bats (519), runs (93) and stolen bases (12). However, even with an improved approach (strikeout rate – 20.5 and walk rate – 12.3), he finished with a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.307). In addition, his average hit rate (1.675) came in below his higher output from 2017 to 2019 (1.849).
Other than runs and steals, Canha offered a dull path for five months (3/7, 7/8, 1/18, 0/4 and 2/9) in home runs and RBI. He lost some loft off his swing path (fly-ball rate – 35.9 and 40.1 in his career). His hard-hit rate (35.4 – 226th) and barrel rate (7.1 – 188th) ranked poorly.
Fantasy Outlook
The Mets saw enough in his game to pay Canha $26.5 million for the next two seasons. His game has some intriguing parts and his best play has come over the past four years (.249/265/65/204/20 over 1,485 at-bats). However, his ADP (266) looks like a trap as his improvement in steals doesn’t look repeatable and he will bring some batting average risk. Canha may have only one trusted category (runs) due to his ability to take walks. With 500 at-bats, a fantasy manager can expect a .250 batting average with 80 runs, 20 home runs, 70 RBI and five steals.
C James McCann
Over seven years with the Tigers and White Sox, he hit .249 with 65 home runs, 252 RBI and seven steals over 2,072 at-bats. McCann had his best opportunity (476 at-bats) and success in 2019 (.273 with 62 runs, 18 home runs, 60 RBI and four steals).
In his first season with the Mets, McCann underperformed. His contact batting average (.335) and average hit rate (1.506) came in below his previous two years. He continues to have a high strikeout rate (27.9) with an uptick in his walk rate (7.8). McCann finished with only one productive month (.288/7/4/16 over 80 at-bats).
McCann posted a three-year low in his HR/FB rate (13.3) while losing his swing path (51.5% ground ball rate and 28.6% fly-ball rate). In addition, he finished with a weak barrel rate (6.1).
Fantasy Outlook
His ADP (322) prices him as a backend C2 in 12-team formats. To pay off, McCann needs to produce 55 runs, 15 home runs and 55 RBI with a push closer to a .250 batting average. I’m neutral on his value at the right price.
3B J.D. Davis
Davis failed to make the expected impact in his third season with a chance at starting at-bats for the Mets. Injuries were the most significant factor in his failure in 2021. His season began with 17 hits over 42 at-bats with five runs, two home runs and seven RBI. A hand injury in early May led to two-and-a-half months on the injured list. Davis had a minimal opportunity (137 at-bats) to end the season with a .248 batting average with 13 runs, three home runs and 16 RBI. His season ended in mid-September with surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left hand.
His strikeout rate (32.2) spiked over the past two years while continuing to take walks (11.4%). Davis finished with an elite contact batting average (.459).
Over five seasons in the minors, Davis hit .292 with 105 home runs, 393 RBI and 19 steals over 1,981 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
Davis looks to be the odd man out of the Mets’ starting lineup after their signings over the winter. His ADP (460) makes him a bench flier in deep formats. In 2022, he’ll have to hit his way into more at-bats. Nevertheless, I still believe in his bat while viewing him as a handcuff to multiple players in New York’s starting lineup. Davis has the upside of a .290 with 25 home runs and 85 RBI if given 500 at-bats.
OF Brandon Nimmo
Over six seasons in New York, Nimmo has hit .266 with 47 home runs, 149 RBI and 20 stolen bases over 1,393 at-bats.
His best success came in the COVID-19-shortened season in 2020 (.280 with 33 runs, eight home runs, 18 RBI and one steal over 186 at-bats). In a rotational role over the first month last year, Nimmo hit .338 over 71 at-bats with eight runs, two home runs and 10 RBI.
In early May, a left finger injury after getting by a pitch led to two months on the injured list. Over the last half of the year, he hit .280 with 43 runs, six home runs and 18 RBI over 254 at-bats.
His walk rate (14.9) has been elite in his career. Nimmo did a much better job controlling the strike zone (20.0%) over the past two seasons.
Fantasy Outlook
The Mets will use Nimmo in a rotational outfield role this year. In the early draft season in the NFBC, fantasy managers expect him to receive a starting job based on his ADP (293). His walk rate gives him a top-of-the-order approach, but other players will get in his way. Nimmo could be worth the investment, but his history of injuries forces me to temper my expectations.
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports
Starting Pitching
SP Jacob deGrom
Over 15 starts last year, deGrom was on a path for one of the most dominating seasons in baseball history. Batters only hit .129 against him while posting an exceptional walk rate (1.1) and electric strikeout rate (14.3). He allowed only seven runs over his first 72 innings.
A lat issue led to two stints on the injured list in May. DeGrom developed a right elbow issue in mid-June, followed by a right shoulder issue a week later. His season ended at the All-Star break with a right elbow issue.
His average fastball (99.2) was the career best while improving in each of the past five seasons. In addition, batters barely touched his slider (.090 BAA) and changeup (.071 BAA). He also had dominating success with his four-seamer (.153 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
The number of injuries deGrom suffered last year does send out a signal to avoid him in 2022. As the calendar flips to February, there has been no update on the health of his right elbow. His ADP (24) will leave a dent in a fantasy team pitch stats if deGrom does indeed need TJ surgery. Temptation is a devilish thought that many drafters won’t be able to avoid until they see his updated status in print. So I’m avoiding him even with any positive spring training news. A go big or go home with your tail between your legs pick.
SP Max Scherzer
Scherzer returned to his elite ways after a down season in 2020 (3.74 ERA), but he averaged just under six innings per start. From 2013-18, Scherzer went 107-40 with a 2.81 ERA and 1,620 strikeouts over 1,313 innings (6.7 innings per start).
Over his first nine starts with the Dodgers, Scherzer went 7-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 79 strikeouts over 58 innings. He allowed two runs or fewer in 24 of his 30 starts.
His average fastball (94.4) was a four-year low. Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.193 BAA), slider (.162 BAA), changeup (.139 BAA) and cutter (.191 BAA). Only his curveball (.269 BAA) was a liability.
He finished with a career-high fly-ball rate (48.3), which fell in line with his approach from 2016-18.
Fantasy Outlook
Scherzer has been one of the best arms in baseball over the last decade. He continues to be a massive edge in WHIP and ERA, plus wins tend to rank in the upper tiers in the league. His ADP (19) fits his resume and impact, but Scherzer needs to pitch a minimum of 200 innings to create a higher edge.
SP Taijuan Walker
Walker only pitched four games in 2018 and 2019 (3.21 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 14 innings) due to TJ surgery in April of 2018. His progress was slowed by a right shoulder strain in 2019, leading to Walker tossing one shutout inning with one strikeout.
In 2020, Walker struggled in two of his first three starts (nine runs, 16 baserunners and two home runs over seven innings). However, his arm was impressive over his other nine starts (1.36 ERA, 0.9928 WHIP and 46 strikeouts over 46.1 innings).
Over his first 17 games last year, he went 7-3 with a 2.66 ERA, .205 BAA and 95 strikeouts over 94.2 innings. Unfortunately, Walker gave away all of his gains over his next four starts (20 runs, 36 baserunners and seven home runs over 15 innings). In addition, his arm had more downs than ups over his last nine starts (5.66 ERA) due to 13 home runs over 49.1 innings.
His average fastball (94.7) regained some of its lost velocity. Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.210 BAA), slider (.182 BAA) and curveball (.125 BAA). Walker still needs to find his rhythm with his split-finger fastball (.255 BAA) and sinker (.287 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Walker lost his confidence over the second half of the year and his ability to make batters swing and miss. After the All-Star break, his spike in home runs allowed (20 over 64.1 innings) suggests an underlying injury. Wild card arm and there won’t be much fight for him on drafts day based on his ADP (371). Worth a flier as his replacement value isn’t much different if Walker struggles.
SP Carlos Carrasco
Carrasco ended up being a bust in 2019. His season started with half of his first 12 starts resulting in disaster. Despite allowing no runs over 23 innings with 28 strikeouts in four of those games, he had an ERA of 4.98 at the end of May, with 14 home runs allowed over 65 innings.
Cleveland placed him on the injured list for three months with a battle with a form of leukemia. Carrasco returned to the mound as a reliever in September, but he struggled in many games (6.60 ERA).
In 2020, Carrasco regained his form, leading to 11 starts with three runs or fewer allowed. After his first six starts, he still had a 4.50 ERA. Over his final six games, he posted a 1.66 ERA and 43 strikeouts over 38 innings. His walk rate (3.6 – 2.3 in his career) did come at his highest level since his rookie season in 2009 (4.4).
Last year, Carrasco started the year on a bad hamstring injury, leading to almost four months on the injured list. His arm didn’t look right over his 12 starts (6.04 ERA, .272 BAA and 12 home runs over 53.2 innings). He had right elbow surgery in October to remove bone fragments.
His average fastball (93.5) regressed for the seventh straight season. Carrasco didn’t have one pitch of value.
Fantasy Outlook
From 2014-18, he went 68-43 with a 3.27 ERA and 963 strikeouts over 856 innings. However, Carrasco hasn’t been the same pitcher over the last three years (4.69 ERA, 1.324 WHIP and 228 strikeouts over 201.2 innings). His ADP (305) will make sense for the wrong reasons for some fantasy managers. Chasing fading injury arms isn’t the best path for success.
SP Tylor Megill
Over three seasons in the minors, Megill went 9-10 with a 3.41 ERA and 187 strikeouts over 140 innings. His arm pressed higher in 2021 at AA and AAA, leading to a 3.35 ERA and 59 strikeouts over 40.1 innings.
When the Mets needed a starter with deGrom battling some injuries, they called up Megill in late June. He pitched well over his first seven starts (2.04 ERA and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). However, major-league batters caught up to him over his final 11 starts (6.13 ERA, .282 BAA, 15 home runs and 60 strikeouts over 54.1 innings.
His failure came against left-handed batters (.315 with 13 home runs and 44 strikeouts over 165 at-bats).
He had plenty of velocity in his fastball (94.7). Megill had success with his slider (.247 BAA), changeup (.238 BAA) and his show-me curveball (.167 BAA). Batters hit .258 with 11 home runs over 178 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
When Megill figures out how to get lefties out and keep the ball in the park, his arm will move to a trusted area for fantasy managers. His command and strikeout rate drive his 2022 ADP (302) in the NFBC. Unfortunately, for any looking at his cracks, they will miss the light that is about to shine through.
SP David Peterson
After a breakthrough season in 2017 in college (11-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 140 strikeouts over 100.1 innings), the Mets drafted Peterson with the 20th overall pick in 2017.
His arm had no problem with A Ball in 2018 (1.82 ERA and 57 strikeouts over 59.1 innings), but he did look overmatched at High A in 2018 (4.33 ERA and 1.354 WHIP) and AA in 2019 (4.19 ERA and 1.345 WHIP).
Overall, Peterson maintained value in both his walk rate (2.5) and strikeout rate (8.8) in the minors while showing more strikeout ability in 2019 (9.5).
With Marcus Stroman missing 2020, Peterson made the jump from AA to the majors. He allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts while struggling in one game (five runs and eight base runners over two innings). Despite his success, Peterson struggled with his command (4.3 walks per nine) while also grading low with his first-pitch strike rate (55).
Last year after a disaster first outing (six runs, nine baserunners and two home runs over four innings), Peterson posted a 4.05 ERA and 44 strikeouts over his next eight starts. After struggling in June (6.75 ERA), he landed on the injured list with an oblique issue, followed by a broken toe.
His average fastball (92.3) came below the league average. Peterson lost the feel of his slider (.297 BAA), but his changeup (.186 BAA) showed growth.
Fantasy Outlook
Peterson still needs time to develop and clean up the damage with home runs. His ADP (623) in the NFBC puts him in the avoid column until his arm shows improvement. New York has some questions with the backend of their pitching staff, possibly creating an early-season audition in their rotation.
SP Sean Reid-Foley
Reid-Foley failed to develop into a major-league arm after flashing his potential in 2016 between A and High A (10-5 with 130 strikeouts over 115.1 innings) and AA and AAA in 2018 (12-5 with 3.26 ERA and 150 strikeouts over 129.2 innings).
In 2019, his arm lost value at AAA (6.47 ERA and 105 strikeouts over 89 innings).
Over three years with the Blue Jays, Reid-Foley went 5-8 with a 4.40 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 71.2 innings. Last year, he struggled over 12 games in the Mets’ bullpen (5.23 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 20.2 innings).
His average fastball (93.9) lost about a half-mile an hour. Batters struggled to his changeup (.067 BAA) while losing the feel for his slider (.280 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
At age 26, Reid-Foley is well past the top prospect era of his career. He’s hanging by a thread for any kind of a major-league opportunity. It all starts with throwing more strikes, which has been a problem in his professional career.
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports
Bullpen
RP Edwin Diaz
Diaz pitched better last season (3.45 ERA, 89 strikeouts and 32 saves over 62.2 innings), but he failed again to repeat his elite closing status of 2018. Despite his success, Diaz had nine disaster games (19 runs, 29 base runners and three home runs over 6.2 innings).
He threw the ball well at home (4-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 58 strikeouts and 23 saves over 39 innings). However, Diaz lacked confidence on the road (1-5 with a 6.85 ERA, 31 strikeouts and nine saves over 23.2 innings).
His average fastball (98.9) pushed higher in velocity while offering an elite slider (.152 BAA) and four-seamer (.227 BAA). Diaz finished with a step back in his strikeout rate (12.8)
Fantasy Outlook
Over three seasons with the Mets, he has 4.00 ERA and 238 strikeouts over 146.1 innings while converting 64 of 81 saves. His ADP (68) ranks him sixth at closer in the NFBC in January. Diaz has the fastball and slider to be electric, but he needs to throw more strikes and man up when the chips are down the road.
RP Trevor May
Over the past four seasons, May has been a trusted reliever (17-7 with a 3.33 ERA, 236 strikeouts and 11 saves over 175.2 innings). His risk moving toward the ninth inning is his home runs allowed (1.4 per nine). He had a high strikeout rate (12.1) while walking a few too many batters (3.2 per nine).
His average fastball (96.6) inched higher. May lost the feel for his changeup (.341 BAA). Batters struggled with his slider (.164 BAA) and four-seamer (.218 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
May shows signs of closing games, but he has too many disaster innings when battling his command and home runs. New York will use him again in the seventh and eighth innings. May will get some vulture wins and mop-up saves with some help in strikeouts.
RP Seth Lugo
Lugo missed the first two months of last season with a right elbow injury after having surgery in February. His season started with a 2.40 ERA and 21 strikeouts over 15 innings. He struggled in back-to-back games around the All-Star break (six runs, seven baserunners and two home runs over 2.2 innings). Lugo posted a 2.51 ERA and 34 strikeouts over his final 28.2 innings.
He continued to have a high strikeout rate (10.7) with a step back in his walk rate (3.7). His average fastball (94.2) improved slightly. Lugo has a plus curveball (.177 BAA) and success with his four-seamer (.164 BAA). His slider (.345 BAA) remains a losing pitch.
As a reliever in his career, Lugo has a 2.72 ERA and 265 strikeouts over 235 innings compared to a 4.35 ERA as a starter.
Fantasy Outlook
Lugo has the command and strikeout ability to pitch in the ninth when he’s throwing the ball well. New York will use him for multiple innings at times, which points to him seeing more opportunities in the seventh inning.
More fantasy baseball coverage:
- AL EAST: Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays
- AL CENTRAL: Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins
- AL WEST: Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers
- NL EAST: Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins
