Christian McCaffrey, Tom Brady Among Top 10 ‘What If’ Scenarios

Michael Fabiano highlights 10 expectations for 2022 that could kill your fantasy season if they don’t happen.

If you’ve long been a fan of pro and fantasy football, you probably know that it can oftentimes be difficult to predict. Heck, I always say “the only thing predictable about the NFL is it’s unpredictability.” That statement is true every single season. Remember when we all loved Brandon Aiyuk over Deebo Samuel in fantasy drafts? Or how about the Christian McCaffrey situation? “Getting hurt in 2020 was a fluke! He’ll be fine!”

Doh!

Oh, and raise your hand if you predicted the Cincinnati Bengals would go to the Super Bowl “Anyone, anyone? Bueller?” Oddsmakers had them at 150-1 to be in the big game. The Atlanta Falcons had better odds at 80-1! Do you smell what I'm cooking here?

So, which scenarios that have been widely predicted heading into the upcoming season would have the biggest impact on fantasy football if they ultimately are wrong?

Here are my top 10 “What If” scenarios that could affect your 2022 fantasy teams:

Douglas DeFelice/USA TODAY Sports

What if … we’re wrong about Christian McCaffrey (again)?

McCaffrey has played in 10 combined games in the last two seasons. Has that earned him the “injury prone” tag? Not based on the data over at the NFFC, where CMC is the No. 2 overall pick behind Jonathan Taylor. Risk-averse fantasy managers will fade him at that price, but many are going all in and gambling that McCaffrey will avoid injuries. If he gets hurt and misses time, we’re left with D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard.

What if … all those touches affect Derrick Henry in 2022?

Henry has carried the football 900 times over the last three years (39 games), and that’s just the regular season! All those rushes caught up with him last year, as he went down with an injured foot and missed the final nine games of the regular season. With 1,021 combined carries, including the postseason, fantasy managers might be tempting fate with Henry for 2022. To be safe, it makes sense to draft Hassan Haskins late.

What if … Patrick Mahomes isn’t the same without Tyreek Hill?

Mahomes and Hill made beautiful fantasy music in Kansas City, but that combo is now a thing of the past after the latter was dealt to Miami. I’ve already detailed the reasons Mahomes could see his totals decline, but he’s still a top-three quarterback in drafts. If the Chiefs don’t establish a new downfield threat, such as Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman or rookie Skyy Moore, Mahomes’s big play production could shrink.

What if … Saquon Barkley simply isn’t the same runner?

Barkley was a stud as a rookie, posting 24.2 fantasy points per game while averaging five yards per attempt. Since then, he’s averaged 14.5 points per game (11.4 last year) and just 4.1 yards per attempt (3.7 last year). The addition of new head coach Brian Daboll has increased Barkley’s draft value, but are we all just chasing his rookie totals? The Giants also have questions on their offensive line, which is 18th based on PFF.

What if … Javonte Williams does become a featured back?

Williams and Melvin Gordon had the same number of carries and averaged almost the same number of touches per game last season. Gordon is back for 2022, so there’s concern another backfield committee is imminent. If that scenario doesn’t happen and Williams takes a significant lead in touches, he could become an absolute draft steal. At this point, he’s the ninth running back coming off the board based on NFFC ADP data.

What if … Ezekiel Elliott isn’t ready to fade away just yet?

The Elliott disrespect has gotten to the point now where Lamar Jackson has a higher rushing yards player prop for this season. But what if Zeke re-emerges as the back who averaged 17.7 fantasy points in his first nine games of 2021 when he was 100 percent? That would land managers who take him in Round 3 an elite talent as their No. 2 back. If you like to grab two wideouts in the first two rounds, Zeke could also be a No. 1 back.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

What if … Father Time finally claims Tom Brady this season?

No one believes this is going to happen, right? I don’t, but that’s the point of this article! At 45, Brady is at the point where his seasonal success continues to be unprecedented. If he should see any sort of decline in his skills and statistical prominence, it would have a ripple effect across the Buccaneers offense. Let’s hope the fountain of youth scenario remains, because a lot of fantasy points are riding on Brady.

What if … the Jaguars use a full-blown backfield committee?

I love Travis Etienne. You love Travis Etienne. But news that James Robinson (Achilles) is on track to play in Week 1 could put an end to our love affair. In that scenario, Etienne isn’t even a lock to be the Jaguars starting running back. What’s more, it could mean that his touch share is affected to the point where a breakout season isn’t even in the cards for 2022. Etienne is currently being selected in Rounds 3 or 4 in drafts.

What if … Jaylen Waddle is the best wide receiver in Miami?

Waddle was pretty awesome as a rookie, averaging 6.5 catches and 63.4 yards per game. That’s far better than Tyreek Hill’s first season, when he averaged 3.8 catches and 37 yards per contest. Hill has since emerged as a star, but won’t defenses focus on stopping him? If that’s the scenario, Waddle could be in a better position than Hill to lead the team in targets. After all, he already has a great rapport with Tua Tagovailoa.

What if … Deshaun Watson isn’t the same (when he plays)?

I have no idea when Watson will be back (if he’s back at all), but it’ll have been a long time since he’s played a meaningful football game regardless. He’s also in a brand-new offense and will have to gain a rapport with new teammates, all the while dealing with his off-field issues. Watson has always been a gridiron star, but he could be a bit rusty when he returns. If that happens, Amari Cooper, David Njoku and others are affected.

---

Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!