Good News, Bad News: Joe Mixon, Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, Ravens Running Backs

Brandon Aiyuk had his best game of the season in Week 6, but a closer look at the situation suggests it might not be sustainable.

Author:
Kyle Wood
Publish date:
Oct 20, 2022

The halfway point of the NFL season is quickly approaching, which means there’s a large enough sample size to make more definitive declarations about players—good, bad or both.

In Good News, Bad News, we’re looking at both each week to give you a complete look at a player’s performance and situation to see what’s working, what’s not and perhaps diagnose why.

Joe Mixon, Bengals

Less was more for Mixon last week against the Saints. Cincinnati’s workhorse has the second-most touches in the NFL through six games (128) yet one of his best games of the year came on a day where he touched the ball a season-low 12 times. A somewhat surprising shootout with the Saints forced Joe Burrow to air the ball out 37 times, his second-most attempts of the year, while Mixon saw a season-low eight carries.

Mixon ran for 5.6 yards per carry, which matched his best mark of the year, and his underlying numbers were favorable as well: 2.9 yards before contact per attempt and 2.8 yards after contact per attempt—both well above his season averages. Burrow continued to target Mixon in the passing game and the two connected four times for 23 yards and a score. His 5.8 yards per catch were the most since Week 2, and that can at least be partially attributed to an uptick in his average depth of target from well behind the line of scrimmage to just past it.

A touchdown—only his second of the season—buoyed his performance, but it was good to see Mixon making the most of his touches for the second week in a row. The volume is great and the scores will come. Barring injury, Mixon will work his way up among the top fantasy scorers at his position over the next few weeks with favorable matchups ahead.

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk — Brandon Aiyuk had a pair of TD receptions in Week 6, but that was the result of a negative game script for the 49ers.
Brett Davis/USA Today Sports

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

Two touchdowns is obviously an outlier performance for Aiyuk. He had his best game of the season in an upset loss to the Falcons last week as the 49ers played from behind and Jimmy Garoppolo attempted a season-high 41 passes, funneling 11 of those to Aiyuk. The third-year receiver hauled in eight for 83 yards and the team’s only two scores, which nearly matched his fantasy points total from the prior three weeks.

It’s great to see an expanded role for Aiyuk, who’s actually led the team in receiving yards in three games already. He only has two fewer catches on nine fewer targets than Deebo Samuel and their yardage numbers are close as well. Of course, Aiyuk doesn’t add what Samuel does in the running game, which brings us to the bad news portion: San Francisco doesn’t want to play like it just did. Aiyuk, Samuel and George Kittle all saw at least 10 targets against Atlanta, which is great for fantasy but goes against head coach Kyle Shanahan’s game plan.

The 49ers only ran the ball 16 times against the Falcons for 50 yards. Most weeks, the ground game will be more effective and relied upon much more often. That cuts into Aiyuk’s bottom line as a weekly fantasy contributor rather than the dice roll that he’s been. San Francisco, a home underdog this week against the Chiefs, will likely need to pass more often than usual to keep up, which makes Aiyuk a good play once again.

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Amari Cooper, Browns

Cooper’s somewhat confounding home/away splits continued last week against the Patriots. Even in a loss, he salvaged the day with a touchdown and now has 14-plus fantasy points in all four home games (20-plus in three of those) and no more than five in two contests outside of Cleveland.

The Browns are certainly feeding their offseason acquisition: Cooper’s 55 targets rank 10th in the league. But he’s tied for 21st in receptions (31) and his 56.4% catch rate ranks 148th among qualified receivers. Part of that is on Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett, but some of the fault lies with Cooper, who already has four drops this season (his career high is six).

If you indeed subscribe to the home/away difference for Cooper, it’s important to note that three of Cleveland’s next four games are on the road. It’s encouraging to see him being fed and still produce despite how much is being left on the table. As the WR11, Cooper’s ROI is already impressive, but it would still be good to see him and Brissett connect at a higher frequency over the next five games before Deshaun Watson returns from suspension.

Ravens backfield

Baltimore averages the fifth-most rushing yards per game in the NFL, yet somehow J.K. Dobbins (RB52) is its highest-scoring running back. The fault—or credit, depending on how you look at it—lies with Lamar Jackson, who not only leads the team in rushing yards but ranks fifth in the NFL. Jackson accounts for about half of the team’s rushing yards, more than a third of their carries and half of their scores on the ground. His rushing production hasn’t rendered the Ravens running backs useless; it’s just impossible to predict whose game it will be week to week.

Last week it was Kenyan Drake, who’s the only Baltimore player not named Jackson to lead the team in rushing in a game this season (he’s done so twice). Drake, who the team added just before the start of the season, romped for 119 yards and a score on 10 carries and found the end zone as well. Dobbins had a big fantasy week a few games back thanks to a pair of touchdowns, but he’s yet to top 50 rushing yards in a single contest. Justice Hill ran six times for 60 yards earlier in the year. Then there’s the pending return of Gus Edwards to add further confusion to the hierarchy in the room.

Drake was the hot waiver wire add this week, and rightfully so. Still, it seems like head coach John Harbaugh is going to go with the hot hand in the backfield—Dobbins’ 13 carries in Week 4 was the most any Ravens running back has fielded this season. You want a piece of this rushing attack each week, but Jackson is the only reliable option so far.

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