5 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates for 2023

Three pitchers and two middle infielders who could be in store for big seasons.

Who will be this year’s best breakout players?

As you head into fantasy drafts, it’s fun to think about who has the potential – if they can only take the next step – to truly break out this year. These are players that you could consider taking earlier than their average draft position (ADP) if you believe in their talent; they certainly are values where they currently being drafted.

Last year’s NL Cy Young winner, Sandy Alcantara, made a lot of breakout lists before last season. Plenty of people also called for a breakout from Andres Gimenez, and he delivered as well.

So, who will it be this season? Here are five talented players I believe are poised to break out in 2023.

SEE ALSO: Post-Hype Sleepers | Sleeper Hitters | Sleeper Pitchers

Matt Kartozian/USA Today Sports

Corey Seager, SS, Rangers

After moving to the Rangers in 2022, Seager hit a career-high 33 home runs but his batting average was a mere .243. The good news is that statcast says his expected batting average was .283, and we should expect Seager to benefit from the new rules banning the shift. Defenders shifted on Seager 92.8% of the time in 2022, limiting his weighted on-base average (wOBA) to .326 as compared to .397 when he did not face the shift. Should a few more of those hard hits drop in for singles, Seager could see his first season with a .280 average and 30-plus home runs. Seager’s 18 hits in spring training lead all players across the league, another indicator he’s in line for a good year. He’s also slugged four homers and he’s hitting .429. It’s Seager season.

Jazz Chisolm Jr., 2B, Marlins

Chisholm has shown flashes of truly amazing talent when he’s been healthy. In the 60 games he played last year, Chisolm had 14 homers and 12 stolen bases. That’s enough upside to say he could end up first overall at the position -- assuming he stays healthy. He hits the ball hard, and his plate discipline has improved every season. Chisholm has the potential to finish with 30 homers and 30 steals without dinging your BA too much. We have yet to see Chisolm play an entire season at the MLB level, but the potential is there for a breakout. One note: this could be the last season Chisolm qualifies at second base, since the Marlins acquired 2B Luis Arraez.

Hunter Greene, SP, Reds

Greene regularly throws 100-plus mph pitches as a starter, with his average pitch speed clocking in at 98.9. For reference, that average speed is tied with multiple Cy Young-winner Jacob deGrom. With all of that speed, Greene struggled with command early last season. After the All-Star break, however, the young hurler allowed only four earned runs (1.02 ERA) while striking out batters at an average of 13 per nine innings. That’s bonkers. Statcast said his expected ERA (xERA) last season was 4.00, considerably better than the 4.44 he actually logged. It’s not only his fastball that impresses; his slider generates a ton of whiffs. If he can find the right pitch mix and locate that heater high in the zone, hitters are going to struggle.

Nick Lodolo, SP, Reds

Yes, two Cincinnati pitchers make the list, despite the fact that they don’t play for a team expected to win a lot of games. Lodolo is one of my favorite breakouts and best values this season. Going a full two rounds after Greene in fantasy baseball drafts, Lodolo struck out 11.49 batters per nine in his rookie season and posted a superior ERA (3.66), despite playing in an unfavorable pitcher’s ballpark. He has looked sharp so far this spring, striking out 19 batters across 14 innings pitched, logging three wins with a 1.93 ERA. He has a four-pitch mix, with his curveball inducing the most whiffs.

Cristian Javier, SP, Astros

Affectionately nicknamed “El Reptil,” Javier has the cool-headed and unflappable nature on the mound that is the stuff of champions. The Astros signed their reliever-turned-starter to a five-year deal in the offseason after he pitched to a 2.45 ERA and 33.2% K-rate across 30 games in 2022, including two combined no-hitters – one vs. the Yankees and one in the World Series against the Phillies. Of pitchers with a minimum of 300 balls in play (BIP), Javier’s expected wOBA was the best in the major leagues at 2.44. This will be Javier’s first season as a full-time starter, and we could easily see his name in the Cy Young conversation come this summer.