Quarterback Sleepers: 5 Passers Who Will Outperform Their Current ADP

These players offer great value based on where they’re being drafted, especially in superflex leagues.

If you’re looking for a QB2 in your Superflex draft or want some insurance for your QB1, here are five quarterbacks who could easily outperform their draft-day ADP. Here are a couple of veterans who should not be discounted and some fresh talent with massive potential. There’s little risk for a lot of upside in the five players below.

 

Aaron Rodgers, Jets

QB 16

I don’t know how much longer Aaron Rodgers will remain at QB16, but at this value, I am grabbing him as my QB2 every single time. Not only is he a four-time MVP, he is now reunited with Nathaniel Hackett  -- his offensive coordinator for two of those awards -- in New York. Those who took Rodgers at ADP last season got burned, and that is likely what is creating more value for this season. However, remember Rodgers was playing with a hodgepodge group of primarily inexperienced receivers and a broken thumb for much of the season. Under the eye of Robert Saleh and with Garrett Wilson as a true stud wideout, Rodgers should easily outperform this ADP. The threat of a strong run game in New York and a competitive division also bode well for Rodgers’s arm to take center stage. 

Russell Wilson, Broncos

Kyle Terada/USA Today Sports

QB 18

Can Sean Payton and Joe Lombardi fix this Denver offense? It certainly can’t be any worse than it was last season. Wilson’s current ADP is two spots lower than where he finished the 2022 fantasy season (QB16). At this value, I am in. Wilson has two talented receivers in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, both of whom should thrive in Lombardi’s system. Despite the subpar season in ’22, Wilson still ranked seventh in the league as a deep passer, according to NextGen Stats. I’ll bet on Payton to harness Wilson’s mobility, allowing him to move in and out of the pocket for a more successful 2023. 

Jordan Love, Packers

QB 20

With Rodgers out of the picture, it’s finally Jordan Love’s time to shine. Love has been waiting in the wings for three years and we have little to go on, but so far in preseason, he has looked sharp, going 12-for-18 in passing with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. With young receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs there to grow with him, Love could end up being a good value as the season goes on. The Packers could also find themselves in more than a few garbage time situations, and Love’s live arm could be a fantasy plus in those situations. 

Kenny Pickett, Steelers

QB 25

The Pittsburgh offense has looked sharp in preseason, and the Pickett-to-Pickens connection is one we could get used to seeing. The first QB taken in the 2022 draft, Pickett is poised to take a second-year leap after a solid finish to last season. Pickett also has some mobility and could easily add 300 ground yards and punch in a few touchdowns of his own. 

Sam Howell, Commanders

QB 26

Officially the starting QB for Washington, Howell is loaded with weapons in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel as well as two strong pass-catching backs in Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. Perhaps more importantly, though, Howell has massive fantasy upside because of his mobility. At UNC in his final season, Howell ran for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns on 183 attempts. Howell looked impressive on Monday in preseason action, so this ADP could gradually creep up as we approach draft day.