NFL DFS Week 1 Picks: How to Build a Winning Lineup

A Vikings stack vs. the Buccaneers could be a sound investment.

We have football this week!

And that means the long offseason is finally over and it’s time to start setting our DFS lineups. Whether you are stacking, pairing or going a la cart, this article is for you.

For the first week of the season, we will be relying a lot on matchup data from last season with a few extra considerations for personnel changes in mind. As the season progresses, we will be able to hone in and make more precise predictions as we get this year’s data.

I always like to start with looking at which games have the highest point totals of the week. We’ll want to have a few players from those games. We will mostly fade players from games with the lowest totals, unless there is an excellent matchup for a particular player or we are entering a guaranteed prize pool (GPP) and want to be contrarian.

Remember, the bigger the contest, the more important it is to have some variety in your lineup. For small cash games, consider a higher floor. For big GPPs, take more upside shots.

Without further ado, let’s look at some players that should be good pieces for lineups this weekend. All of the players who made this list I expect to return value for their respective salaries–whatever that price-point may be.

Tomorrow we will focus on contrarian and “bargain” plays, so check back for those players and darts on Friday.

Let’s start by looking at the highest game totals of the week according to SI Sportsbook:

Dolphins-Chargers : 51.5
Bengals-Browns 47.5
Cowboys-Giants 46.5
Buccaneers-Vikings 45.5
Jaguars-Colts 45.5

Now, here we go!

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, Chargers
Dolphins-Chargers is the highest game total of the weekend and for good reason. The Fins ranked 31st vs. DFS quarterbacks in 2022, and Herbert is armed with a bevy of weapons. Expect that big arm to be unleashed for a vertical passing game under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Lawrence’s matchup is similarly kind on paper, as the Colts ranked 25th vs. quarterbacks in 2022. Lawrence also gets the addition of Calvin Ridley and Tank Bigsby, and I expect last year’s AFC South champs to come out fighting from game one.

Jeffrey Becker/USA TODAY Sports

Kirk Cousins, Vikings
Cousins finished last season as the QB8, and he was even better at home than away. When at home, Cousins averaged 19.5 DFS points per game. The matchup with the Bucs should be favorable, and let’s not forget Cousins has both Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson healthy and ready to rock -- both are playmakers that should also be considered for your lineups this weekend.

Running Backs

J.K. Dobbins, Ravens
Sure, the Texans should be better this season, but mostly that’s because they can’t get much worse. Runners vs. the Texans have been huge DFS winners, so we aren’t going to go away from that trend. Last year the Houston defense ranked dead last vs. the run. Dobbins starts this season fully healthy, and he should kick off the season with a bang. And the best part? Dobbins is a very reasonable mid-tier salary this weekend.

Travis Etienne, Jaguars
Yes, I know Bigsby is around, but Etienne was the guy for the Jags when they became AFC South champs last year, and I expect him to still lead this backfield. The matchup is good vs. the Colts, but more importantly the game script is even better. Should the Jags jump out to an early lead -- and Vegas has them favored by -4.5 -- we could see a lot of Etienne on Sunday.

Cam Akers, Rams
I love Akers this weekend. Not only were the Seahawks 29th vs. the run last season, Akers should pick up extra targets with the absence of Cooper Kupp.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson, Vikings
If we are betting on Cousins, we are betting on Jefferson, too. And why not? I don’t have to tell you how good Jefferson is. Just be sure to check back tomorrow for ways to save salary if you spend up here.

Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

Chris Olave, Saints
I’m expecting a breakout this season, and I expect it to start now. Olave saw a whopping 38.6% of the air yards for the Saints last year (fifth in NFL) and his 1,686 air yards ranked sixth in the NFL. Olave saw 119 targets in 2022 and his 14.17 average depth of target (aDOT) ranked first among receivers with 100 or more targets. That skill set should match up well with Derek Carr, who ranked eighth in the NFL in deep passing, according to NextGen Stats. The matchup could not be any juicer for Olave and Carr than vs. the Titans, who ranked dead last vs. wide receivers for DFS contests last season.

Drake London, Falcons
London is the clear WR1 for Atlanta and should be heavily targeted vs. a Carolina defense that ranked 28th vs. wide receivers in 2022. Bijan Robinson won’t be the entire offense. I like London’s mid-tier salary this weekend.

Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
Sure, there are questions about Baker Mayfield at quarterback, but the matchup with the Vikings is juicy. Minnesota was the sixth-worst vs. wideouts in 2022, and if you are using Cousins, you want the game total to be high. It makes sense to also roster Godwin if you’re pairing Cousins and Jefferson. You’ll need salary relief, so check in tomorrow for the bargain options. 

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson, Vikings
Hockenson seems cured from his “contract-itis” and he should be in line to soak up a ton of targets on Sunday vs. a Tampa Bay defense that ranked 24th vs. the tight end last season. Hockenson averaged 8.5 targets per game in his 10 games with the VIkings last season, he’s 26 years old and he’s in his prime. He is the only tight end worth spending up for this weekend.

Tyler Higbee, Rams
As much as I love Akers this weekend, I may love HIgbee even more. In his last full season with Matthew Stafford, Higbee finished as the TE14, and his five receiving touchdowns were tied for ninth in the NFL. With Kupp out, he has a chance to be the number one target for Stafford this Sunday. Don’t forget, according to Kelly Stafford, her husband is having trouble relating to the younger players. Seattle's defense ranked 27th vs. the tight end position in 2022.