2020 NFL Draft Prop Bet: When Will Jalen Hurts Be Taken?
While prospects like Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa make the headlines, Jalen Hurts is flying under the radar. Few quarterbacks have a college career story like the one Hurts can tell. During three seasons at Alabama, Hurts played in three National Championship games and the Crimson Tide won one of them.
Following a four-star high school career at Channelview High School in Texas, Hurts committed to Alabama. He became the first true freshman starter for the Crimson Tide since Vince Sutton in 1984. Hurts set school records for total touchdowns (36) and rushing yards (954) during his freshman season. Alabama won 14 straight games in 2016 before losing to Clemson in the National Championship.
Back as the starter, during his sophomore season in 2017, Hurts lead Alabama to an 11-1 regular season record. After the Tide rolled over Clemson, 24-6 in CFP semifinals, Hurts started his second National Championship game. Alabama struggled early during that contest and trailed Georgia 13-0 at halftime. Tua Tagovailoa replaced Hurts to begin the second half and led the Tide to a 26-23 victory in overtime.
Tagovailoa took over as the Crimson Tide starter during the 2018 season, and Hurts was relegated to a backup role during his junior year. For his senior season, Hurts transferred to Oklahoma and helped the Sooners advance to the CFP semifinal. During his four-year college career, Hurts racked up 9,477 passing yards, with 80 TD and just 20 INT. He also posted 3,274 rushing yards and 43 TD over 56 games.
Heading into the 2020 NFL Draft, which runs April 23-25 in Las Vegas, Hurts falls in behind several quarterbacks in a talent-rich draft pool. BetOnline has posted a prop option that focuses on which round Hurts will be selected. Here are the moneyline odds and breakdown of the four options.
Third Round (+115)
BetOnline bookmakers have Hurts being selected in the third round as the favorite on this prop. Despite fantastic college statistics, plus his number of games played, Hurts enters the draft with lingering questions. Pocket poise is the most significant question mark as Hurts is viewed as a one-read quarterback. That is due to sometimes struggling to read defenses and becoming a runner if his first pass option isn't open. If Hurts falls to the third round, the Las Vegas Raiders could take him 80th overall.
Second Round (+160)
While not entirely fitting the mold of today's prototypical NFL starting quarterback, Hurts has a skill set that can be developed at the NFL level. A proven winner, with loads of big-game experience, Hurts was very durable during his college career. Despite absorbing a lot of hits, during 614 career-rushing attempts, he missed just two games over four seasons due to injury. Tom Brady isn't going to play forever, so perhaps Tampa Bay selects Hurts as his successor in the second round with the 45th overall pick.
Fourth to Seventh Round (+300)
Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert are top-tier quarterbacks and will be selected in round one. Along with Jordan Love, Jacob Eason, and Jake Fromm, Hurts is a second-tier prospect. That's a competitive group, so Hurts could end up being the seventh quarterback drafted. If Hurts falls out of the first three rounds - he won't remain on the board much longer. This could be Matthew Stafford's final season in Detroit. The Lions may select Hurts early in the fourth round and have him mentor under Stafford.
First Round (+1200)
A team selecting Hurts during the first round is a massive longshot on this prop. Cincinnati appears locked in on Joe Burrow with the first overall pick. After that, the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers are linked to Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. New England picks 23rd, but the Patriots may go after a prospect like Jordan Love or Jake Fromm. Quarterback isn't the most pressing need for many of the remaining teams. Plus, the first round is loaded with talent across several positions.
Bottom Line
Indianapolis is also a possible landing spot for Hurts, as he would get to mentor under Philip Rivers. The Colts have the 11th pick in the third round, and that adds value to the favorite on this prop. Hurts improved his draft stock with a solid showing at the NFL combine that included a 4.59 time in the 40-yard dash. That could help him move up to a second-round pick. A toss-up, between the top two, Hurts being selected in the second round is my choice here.
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