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Power Rankings: Big Names Are at Pebble, But One Stands Above the Rest

Rory McIlroy is the headliner, but our partner's betting model projects a different player to lift the trophy on Sunday.

Welcome to Power Rankings, a weekly feature on SI Golf from our partners at KeyCompete. This year the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is one of the PGA Tour’s signature events, and it’s attracted an elite field. Here’s the breakdown.

2024 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview

The 2024 Pebble Beach Pro-Am will once again pair top PGA Tour professionals with celebrities and business leaders in a unique format, blending competitive intensity and light-hearted fun. (But this time the ams only get to stick around for 36 holes.) The two courses in use —Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course—each present distinct challenges, demanding versatility and adaptability.

Pebble Beach Golf Links, the crown jewel, is celebrated for its breathtaking coastal views and storied history. Its layout demands strategic thinking and precise shot-making. Spyglass Hill, known for its demanding first five holes and dramatic shifts from coastal dunes to dense forest, tests a golfer's adaptability and mental fortitude. Gone from the rotation is Monterey Peninsula Country Club.

Here are the 10 players our model likes most this week:

2024 KeyCompete’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am Power Rankings

(Odds from the SI Sportsbook)

1. Xander Schauffele (+1300): Renowned for his cool demeanor and clutch performances, Schauffele enters with a strong track record and ability to navigate challenging courses with strategic intelligence. He’s our model’s top pick.

2. Rory McIlroy (+800): McIlroy brings exceptional driving and iron play to Pebble, and his experience and ability to adapt to varying course conditions make him formidable.

3. Scottie Scheffler (+800): Scheffler's consistency and recent form are hard to ignore. His well-rounded game suits the diverse challenges presented by the both courses, making him a strong candidate for a top finish.

4. Viktor Hovland (+1200): Hovland's impressive ballstriking and short game are well-suited for here. He’s steady and also unafraid to go low.

5. Patrick Cantlay (+1800): Known for a methodical approach and exceptional putting, Cantlay's game is well-matched here.

6. Jordan Spieth (+1800): A past winner at this event, Spieth’s affinity for the course and his imaginative short game make him a perennial threat.

7. Max Homa (+1800): Homa has been on the rise, showing remarkable improvements in his game. Loves playing in his home state of California.

8. Tommy Fleetwood (+4000): With his solid all-around game and strong iron play, Fleetwood is a good fit. Consistency will be key.

9. Jason Day (+3500): Day brings experience and a superb short game. If he can find his rhythm, he's capable.

10. Collin Morikawa (+2000): Morikawa’s exceptional iron play and precision make him a threat anywhere. While he rounds out the top 10 in our rankings, his potential for a breakout performance is ever-present.

About Last Week

It was a life-changing week for Matthieu Pavon, who became the first French player to win a modern PGA Tour event. Torrey Pines was also stage for emerging talents, notably Danish golfer Nicolai Højgaard, who showcased his potential with a top-5 finish. Højgaard impressed with his long drives and aggressive style, indicating his readiness to be a regular contender on the tour. Will Zalatoris had his best result since returning from back surgery, finishing T13.

We went 5-2 on our picks at Torrey Pines (with three pushes), Key Compete's season-long record is now 22-11.