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2021 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Latest Betting Odds, Favorites and Sleeper Picks for TPC Southwind

With world No. 1 Jon Rahm sitting out, TPC Southwind offers a crowded betting field at the top.
At 35-1, Cam Smith will look to continue his steady form from Tokyo.

At 35-1, Cam Smith will look to continue his steady form from Tokyo.

It might not be a major but it’s certainly worth its every ounce of gold.

Depending on who you ask, Xander Schauffele’s ability to hold off a strong field to secure the gold medal at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics might have been his greatest win to date. He is the first American to win the golf competition at the summer Olympics and he joins just Englishman Justin Rose to hold that title in the modern era. There are scarce chances to win a gold medal in any sport, so as each upcoming summer competition passes, the gold medal in golf will only continue to add more weight.

We now resume the final stretch of the PGA Tour season with a star-studded 66-man field at TPC Southwind in Memphis for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. As all World Golf Championship events go, there will be no cut and plenty of prize money. Throughout the year, certain layouts are more prone to “horses for the course” playing well, and TPC Southwind is certainly one of those tracks. Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson all own that title here, so bettors will want to look into past experience this week more than normal.

According to William Hill, 2019 champion Brooks Koepka is the favorite at 12-1 in a crowded betting board. Next up are British Open champion Collin Morikawa and Schauffele at 14-1. To follow are Jordan Spieth and defending champion Justin Thomas at 16-1. Northern Irishman Rory McIlroy closes out the notables at 18-1.

For our favorite, the value in 2018 champion Dustin Johnson at 20-1 is too good to pass up. In 2018, this tournament was not a WGC event and had a weaker field, but that should not matter if Johnson plays well. He certainly had an uncharacteristic missed cut at the recent 3M Open, but just prior he was coming out of his slump with four straight top-25 finishes, which included two major tournaments. For a player this talented and a man who will look to reassert himself as one of golf’s best, there’s no better time than now to kick his game into high gear before the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

For a midrange pick, Cam Smith at 35-1 looks solid. At just 7,244 yards, TPC Southwind is not a course just for the bombers. In fact, strokes gained (approach) is the most predictive statistic for this week at the par-70 layout and few were better than Smith last week in Tokyo as he gained more than five shots on the field. If it weren’t for his putter, he could have joined the large playoff for bronze. Smith ranks 12th on Tour in strokes gained (putting), so look for him to rediscover that form again this week in Memphis.

For a deep sleeper, Max Homa at 100-1 is serious value. The Genesis Invitational champion is often overlooked for his savvy social media skills, but his game on the course is just as good. You’re getting him at this price because of his poor recent finishes, but Homa’s ball-striking ability has continuously gotten him out of short slumps. His forgettable last four finishes will be in the rearview mirror and he should be able to find some success among another elite field on a favorable course.

2021 picks scoreboard:

Winners: 3
Top 10s: 17
Top 20s: 12
Misses: 50

2021 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Betting odds according to William Hill:

Brooks Koepka 12-1

Collin Morikawa 14-1

Xander Schauffele 14-1

Jordan Spieth 16-1

Justin Thomas 16-1

Rory McIlroy 18-1

Dustin Johnson 20-1

Daniel Berger 22-1

Louis Oosthuizen 22-1

Viktor Hovland 25-1

Bryson DeChambeau 25-1

Patrick Cantlay 25-1

Hideki Matsuyama 25-1

Scottie Scheffler 28-1

Paul Casey 30-1

Webb Simpson 35-1

Matthew Fitzpatrick 35-1

Tony Finau 35-1

Patrick Reed 35-1

Cameron Smith 35-1

Shane Lowry 40-1

Harris English 45-1

Tyrrell Hatton 45-1

Abraham Ancer 45-1

Tommy Fleetwood 45-1

Jason Kokrak 45-1

Corey Conners 45-1

Joaquin Niemann 45-1

Will Zalatoris 50-1

Sungjae Im 55-1

Brian Harman 55-1

Sergio Garcia 55-1

Justin Rose 55-1

Adam Scott 55-1

Sam Burns 66-1

Marc Leishman 70-1

Ian Poulter 70-1

Billy Horschel 70-1

Phil Mickelson 70-1

Cameron Champ 70-1

Cameron Davis 80-1

Robert Macintyre 80-1

Ryan Palmer 90-1

Matthew Wolff 90-1

Kevin Kisner 90-1

Max Homa 100-1

Lee Westwood 100-1

Si-Woo Kim 100-1

Stewart Cink 100-1

Carlos Ortiz 100-1

Garrick Higgo 100-1

Kevin Na 125-1

Lucas Herbert 125-1

Lucas Glover 125-1

Min Woo Lee 125-1

Kyoung-Hoon Lee 150-1

Matt Jones 150-1

Martin Laird 200-1

Aaron Rai 200-1

Victor Perez 200-1

Wilco Nienaber 250-1

Wade Ormsby 250-1

Jim Herman 300-1

Ryosuke Kinoshita 300-1

Robert Streb 300-1

Brad Kennedy 500-1