2023 AT&T Byron Nelson: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for TPC Craig Ranch
K.H. Lee is 51 under par over his last two appearances at TPC Craig Ranch. The two-time defending champion of the AT&T Byron Nelson is ready to try to successfully defend his title and win for the third straight year. The host venue located in McKinney, Texas, has proven to be a birdie bonanza over the last two years.
A field of 156 players are ready to compete for $9.5 million. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend and contend for the $1.71 million first-place prize. Eleven of the top 50 in the OWGR are competing in advance of the 105th PGA Championship next week. Is a pure scoring-fest a good warmup for the PGA? Not at TPC Craig Ranch. Some may point to Justin Thomas’ fifth-place finish last year as a precursor for his second major victory, but overall, he is the only player in the last two AT&T Byron Nelsons to finish in the top 10 and then finish in the top 10 at the PGA.
Only half of those 20 players even earned the right to play in the season’s second major championship. Either the elite are looking forward or this venue is really a wide-open contest. In 2021, Lee’s pre-tournament odds were +20000 (200-1). Last year, they were cut in half when he won for the second time, and he still went off at +10000 (100-1).
The Dallas region is going to get some wet weather this week. Rain is forecasted for each of the four rounds, with two inches predicted overall. Two more inches of participation has drenched the area over the last two weeks. Temperatures will sit in the mid-80s and even with the inclement weather the wind should remain in the teens. A soft course will not make this 7,400+ yard test any shorter, but it sure will let these guys throw darts at the greens.
Based upon the course conditions and design features, I expect another shootout at Craig Ranch.
- The layout has a par-71 scorecard measuring 7,414 yards.
- The Rowlett Creek runs through all 18 holes placing and is in play on 15 of them.
- There are 83 bunkers on the course.
- Bentgrass covers the greens creating perfect surfaces, which is a main reason why hot putters capitalize on birdie opportunities.
Tournament officials have made one change to help curtail scoring. The par-5 12th hole has been changed to a 493-yard par-4. I’m not sure one hole will keep the final score out of the 20s, but they can try. TPC Craig Ranch has the sixth-widest fairways on Tour. Even though it is a long course, these guys can blast away with driver all day. If there is one defense, it must be the greens. Above average in size, they allow less than the Tour average for made putts over 5 feet from the hole. Good (or hot) putters tend cash in on opportunities and separate themselves from the field. Since the putter is the most variable performance club in the bag, I’m favoring prolific scorers down the odds board.
Making birdies takes more than just great putting. As I build out this week’s best bets, I look at a series of factors each player needs to score. For example, approach play is important, but you cannot stop there. On greens this big, you must look at proximity to the hole and another analytic called opportunities gained. Each shows a propensity for birdie ability.
Players who can scramble tend to score well on par-5s, and that matters here as well. Seven of the top 12 finishers in 2022 were in the top 10 for par-5 scoring. Birdie average alone is another great measure. The best birdie makers on Tour aren’t always the big names. Attacking every hole will lead to bogeys and sometimes doubles. When those birdie machines have a consistent week, they can differentiate from the field and win.
In advance of the wild west shootout this week at TPC Craig Ranch, here is my Win, Place, and Show.
Win: Hideki Masuyama
Scottie Scheffler is less than a +400 favorite this week. When I look at the talent on top of the board, only one guy can go low like Scottie for multiple rounds. Hideki Matsuyama can flat-out fill up the birdie cup. In his last three starts, he’s gained an average of 7.4 strokes against the field. That great play is fueled by the driver, approach and a positive putter. T3 in 2022, Hideki can repeat his run from a year ago with his recent form and improve with a win. Take Hideki Matsuyama (+2200 SI Sportsbook) to win.
Last week's pick: Picking Rickie Fowler as the place rather than the win was the play as he finished T14. Ah, gambling hindsight.
Place: K.H. Lee
K.H. Lee is the two-time defending champion. He missed three of four cuts heading into last year’s win. Last week at Wells Fargo, he finished eighth. For 2-to-1 odds, you can bet him to finish in the Top 20. Books have him +2500 to win. KH Lee is +230 to finish inside the top 20 at SI Sportsbook.
Last week's pick: Jordan Spieth failed to place for us after missing the cut by a mile. Something had to be awry and we found out what it was Monday when he withdrew from the Byron Nelson due to a wrist injury.
Showdown: Adam Scott over Seamus Power
What better place for a showdown than in Texas. Adam Scott has a nice scoring record in the Byron Nelson (68.50). Australians play well in Texas conditions and Adam has reinforced that trend. Seamus Power showed up last week in Charlotte, but it had been a while. In his last five starts, he’s lost an average of 3.4 strokes to the field. With a couple missed cuts in there, the dependable ball striking has left him and makes this a great betting opportunity. Pick Adam Scott over Seamus Power (-110 DraftKings).
Last week's pick: We chased some plus-money with Matt Fitzpatrick over Justin Thomas and that was no good as JT finished T14 and beat Fitz by five shots.
For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the AT&T Byron Nelson, please go to Read The Line and subscribe. Need a little incentive? Last week, I listed Wyndham Clark as one of my outright bets at +7500. Take a moment and sign up for the only PGA Professional betting newsletter.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Scottie Scheffler +350
Tyrrell Hatton +1300
Jason Day +1600
Tom Ki +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +2200
K.H. Lee +2200
Matt Kuchar +2800
Adam Scott +3300
Seamus Power +3500
Si Woo Kim +3500
Min Woo Lee +4000
Stephan Jaeger +4000
Taylor Montgomery +4000
Brandon Wu +4500
Davis Riley +4500
Tom Hoge +4500
Adam Hadwin +5000