2023 BMW Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Olympia Fields Country Club
OLYMPIA FIELDS, Ill. — We love the BMW Championship because, like other professional sports, the playoff venue changes every year. The North Course at Olympia Fields has hosted two U.S. Opens, two PGA Championships and the 2020 BMW Championship, where Jon Rahm defeated Dustin Johnson in a playoff where only five players finished under par.
Walking the grounds of Olympia Fields, the turf looks and feels different than 2020. The COVID-19 edition was marked by incredibly fast and firm conditions. The grounds team was forced to water that weekend in hopes of keeping the course under control. It looks lush for this edition. Four inches of rough borders each fairway and the greens appear like velvet. Early player reactions are far more positive than three years ago.
Another $20 million is available for the top 50 on the FedEx Cup points list. Twenty-one of the top 25 in the OWGR (20 of 25 SIWGR) are among those competing for a first-place check of $3.6 million. The top 30 advance to East Lake for the Tour Championship, but all our attention is outside of Chicago as Lucas Glover tries to win three tournaments in a row and Patrick Cantlay attempts to win three BMW Championships in a row.
It will take some serious major championship skills for either of them to three-peat. Even though the course appears more receptive than 2020, I wouldn’t plan for a double-digit winner. Looking back at the top 10 from 2020, the only trend you can really discern is great well-rounded play. Rahm won by gaining just seven shots tee-to-green over the field. The driver, approach game, around the green saves and putting were all just about equal.
On average, the top 10 finishers from 2020 gained six strokes tee-to-green, two strokes off the tee, 2.4 on approach, 1.5 around the green and 2.4 with the putter. Seldom do we see such a healthy balance amongst all skill sets outside of a major. Par-70 courses test every skill without those extra par-5s. With eight par 4s over 440 yards, power will play a role again in determining our winner.
A Rahm-DJ playoff screams power off the tee and elite scoring. Driver play is priority No. 1 for my Win, Place, and Show. After seeing the course in person, I can add another caveat to tee shot acumen. Much like Memphis, this course sets up for a fade off the tee and on many of the approaches. During Tuesday’s press conference, Jon Rahm shared that he did not hit one draw all weekend en route to firing 66-64 in the 2020 win.
The weather looks a little wet on Thursday. Outside of round one’s precipitation, the conditions should be excellent. Temperatures are expected to top off in the low 80s and the wind will be quiet. Even with a fantastic forecast, getting to 10 under par will take some serious scoring and bogey avoidance. The average green size at Olympia Field is just over 5,200 sq/ft. Neither small nor large by TOUR standards, these targets will be missed from time to time. Scrambling and saving par will be more of a factor than it was in Memphis.
By favoring the elite drivers, par savers, and PGA TOUR “Sunday closers,” I think we can come up with a winning card for the BMW Championship.
Win: Max Homa
Max Homa is building a career year. He defended his title at the Fortinet Championship and then won at Torrey Pines. That second win at the Farmers really catches my attention when we consider the skills needed to win at Olympia Fields. He fades the ball off the tee and has eight top-10s since January. Homa’s recent play has been very strong finishing, T6-T10-T12-T21 in his last four starts. That 10th place is significant as it was the British Open and his personal best in a major. Playing well and getting ready for Rome, Homa is about to “max” out his season with a playoff win. Take Max Homa (+2200 SI Sportsbook) to win the BMW Championship.
Last week's pick: Xander Schauffele got off to a good start but didn't make a charge on the weekend and finished T24.
Place: Cam Davis
After three straight top-10 finishes, Cam Davis is on everyone’s radar. Davis started the season fighting injuries and since the spring has found his summer stride. Over his last five starts, Cam has gained six strokes on average against the field. That ball striking can compete on this course, and as a result, I expect Cam to contend. Take Cam Davis to finish Top 20 (+110 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: Sometimes you whiff in golf betting, and Wyndham Clark finished T66 after we tabbed him to finish top 20.
Showdown: Taylor Moore over Tony Finau
Tony Finau has just one top-10 finish since April’s win in Mexico. Taylor Moore just finished top-5 in Memphis. Moore’s strength can be seen on the greens and Finau lost eight strokes to the field with his putter at the St. Jude. The trend will continue for both and as a result Moore will be able to distance himself from Finau over 72 holes. Take Taylor Moore over Tony Finau H2H (-115 BetMGM).
Last week's pick: Winner! We forecast Lucas Glover over Lee Hodges and nobody was better at TPC Southwind than Glover.
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Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Rory McIlroy +700
Scottie Scheffler +750
Jon Rahm +850
Patrick Cantlay +1000
Viktor Hovland +1600
Xander Schauffele +1600
Collin Morikawa +2200
Jordan Spieth +2200
Max Homa +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Tyrrell Hatton +2800
Rickie Fowler +3000
Cameron Young +3300
Hideki Matsuyama +3300
Lucas Glover +3300
Russell Henley +3300
Sungjae Im +3300
Tom Kim +3300
Jason Day +3500
Brian Harman +4000
Corey Conners +4000
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Tony Finau +4000
Sam Burns +4500
Wyndham Clark +4500
Byeong Hun An +5000