2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Port Royal Golf Course
What makes the Butterfield Bermuda Championship an interesting betting event? For starters, we only have two full-field PGA Tour events left in 2023. For avid golf bettors and fans, the abyss between Thanksgiving and the start of the 2024 Tour season is a long six-week stretch. I’m sure we will get tons of Tiger Woods content throughout December, but the reality is unless you’re desperate enough to bet on the parent-child then this run is just about over.
Another compelling element in Bermuda is the idea that any member of this 132-man field can win. At 6,828 yards, Port Royal Golf Course represents one of the few venues on Tour where length doesn’t eliminate a large portion of the competitive field. In four editions, only Russell Knox and Brian Gay have made the cut in each one. Brian Gay is the 2020 winner and has not finished outside the top 12 in his four starts!
Putting is a key metric this week at Port Royal Golf Course, where length advantages are negated.
Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images
At first glance, finding another Gay might sound like looking for a needle in a haystack. Truth is that his skill set is easily definable, and the four past champions here took a similar path toward victory. When you look at specific basic statistics, I see a clear trend. Putting is far more important than driving distance. Those past champions ranked outside the top 30 in length off the tee the year they won. Conversely, they all ranked inside the top 10 for putts per green in regulation.
Bermuda is not a ShotLink venue, so we must depend on golf course design. Eight of the par-4s measure under 415 yards. Toss in three par-5s that are essentially reachable by most of the field and suddenly the players are using a wedge approach on more than half of the scorecard. This is why 14 holes have a birdie rate over 15%. If the wind remains in check, this is a 20-under-par place.
The weather looks great on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures are forecasted in the mid 70s, a breeze around 10-12 mph and no rain. The weekend is a different story. The wind will kick up to 20+ mph on Saturday and rain and wind are expected on Sunday. If you think the three 215-yard-plus par-3s are a challenge in the wind, try hitting a dozen wedge shots without trajectory control. Compound the issue with significant elevation changes on 11 of the 18 holes.
Eighty-eight bunkers define the landing areas and represent their own obstacle. Another unique characteristic of Port Royal is the routing. You don’t play two holes in a row facing the same direction. Constant decision making is tested by the wind. Another example of this architectural characteristic are the par-3s. All four of them play in different directions. Although much will be made of those one-shot targets, the four winners gained an average of 10.8 strokes against the field on the par-4s.
Scoring is essential on the 11 holes where you must hit the fairway and knock it close. The short par-4s and par-5s are the best scoring opportunities. Hitting those fairways will be a little more challenging than last week in Cabo San Lucas. Tiger’s el Cardonal had 97 acres of fairway grass, Port Royal has 21. This is why the cutline has been par or higher in half the events here. Players who cannot control their ball flight will find themselves with the weekend off.
Our core traits for the weekly Win, Place, and Show require great form. I love a little course history and positive gains on Bermudagrass. Not just the putting but playing from that warm weather weedy stuff takes talent. Certain players excel and others fade. Our list of weekly winners are Bermudagrass guys. Lack of accuracy may penalize players in another way. Bermuda has faced several storms in the last three months.
Course conditions will be O.K. in the playing areas. Get a little outside the fairways and green complexes and who knows what you may encounter. Those six hurricanes that blew through in recent months could leave you with some questionable situations. Just another reason why out betting card favors the best PGA Tour players to visit the Butterfield in the past few years. Look through our card and pick your favorites.
Enjoy the process and remember after next week the full-field show is over. Take advantage of the odds and make sure you live bet throughout the weekend. Between the weather forecast for Sunday and the exciting finish alongside the Atlantic this weekend will entertain you.
Win: Brendon Todd
If the Bermuda Triangle created the perfect golfer for this tournament, it would be Brendon Todd. The 2019 winner and tournament-record holder (-24) is an incredible putter. Combine that with an elite wedge game and one can quickly see why he excels on short positional courses. Todd’s last tournament was the Fortinet, where he gained two strokes on approach and over nine strokes with his putter finishing well inside the top 10. Brendon is also ranked top 5 in the field for par-4 scoring, birdie-or-better percentage and short game. Take Brendon Todd to win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship (+1600 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: Beau Hossler was picked to win but finished T15 at 18 under.
Place: Ben Griffin
Ben Griffin held the 54-hole lead last year in Bermuda. Since that final round 12 months ago, Griffin has nine top-25 finishes and qualified for the FedEx Cup playoffs over the summer. His strength is short game, putting and par-3 scoring. Ben has a unique combination of well-rounded iron play, ranked top 30 in long par-3s and approaches under 100 yards. Another perfect complement of skills for the Butterfield. Take Ben Griffin to finish Top 20 (+115 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: Callum Tarren was tabbed for a top-40 finish but failed to make the weekend.
Showdown: Brendon Todd over Thomas Detry
This time last year, Thomas Detry was fresh off a hot run in Europe and one of the top betting names surrounding the Butterfield. In his last 10 events, Detry is losing strokes off the tee, on approach and around the green. I doubt the putter can save him against one of the tournament favorites and past champion in Brendon Todd. Watch Todd hit those wedges close and come back with another top finish in the mid-Atlantic. Take Brendon Todd over Thomas Detry H2H (-120 BetMGM).
Last week's pick: The showdown between Akshay Bhatia (T10) and Taylor Pendrith (T15) was decided by one shot, but our man had Pendrith.
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Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Adam Scott +1600
Alex Noren +1800
Alex Smalley +1800
Brendon Todd +1800
Thomas Detry +1800
Akshay Bhatia +2000
Lucas Herbert +2000
Ben Griffin +2200
Lucas Glover +2200
Taylor Pendrith +2200
Luke List +2500
Doug Ghim +3000
Mark Hubbard +3000
Nick Hardy +3300
Davis Riley +3500
Dylan Wu +4500
Ryan Palmer +4500
Brandon Wu +5000
Peter Kuest +5000
Vince Whaley +5000
Zecheng Dou +5000