2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for TPC Southwind
Two strokes don't seem like much, but the reality is, it can make all the difference in the world. Round 1 of the FedEx Cup playoffs takes us to TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The par-70 layout covers 7,243 yards on the scorecard. Most amateurs don’t pay any attention to that par number, but for the PGA Tour it can be the distance between winning and losing.
Reducing the scorecard from a par-72 to 70 involves taking out two par-5s, which are valuable scoring opportunities on Tour. Knock your ball down to the green complex in two and get up and down for birdie. If you are a longer hitter, maybe even an eagle from time to time. Scoring inside a 50-yard circle from the hole is far easier than from 150 yards. At TPC Southwind, those two-missing par 5s are replaced by a couple of lengthy par 4s. In fact, seven of the 12 par-4s are over 450 yards long.
Placing a stronger emphasis on par-4 scoring heightens the value of approach play and hitting the fairway. TPC Southwind possesses some of the narrowest fairways on Tour. Consistently inside the top-10 toughest, two fewer par-5s changes things. Eleven holes with water in play and 75 bunkers set all over the course also add to the accuracy contest. The average green size at TPC Southwind is 4,300 square feet, just two-thirds the size of an average green from last week's event at Sedgefield Country Club.
Hot and humid conditions in Memphis will have the ball flying. Thankfully, the course should play soft. The region received over 10 inches of rain in the last month. That sticky Bermudagrass on the green should be receptive to all the mid-iron approaches. Nearly 50% of the iron shots at Southwind will come from 150-200 yards. Four-thousand-square-foot greens aren’t big at that distance, and as a result, the field of 70 will hit an average of 59% of them, well below the Tour average of 66%.
Instead of looking into specific stats, I want to research the cumulative ones. We know who the par-70 scoring leaders are on the PGA Tour. Rory McIlroy tops the list followed closely by Xander Schauffele. Scottie Scheffler is next and then Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa and Tony Finau. You won’t find Rahm’s name until you get outside the top 10. Those who can score on par-70s do it by making birdies on the par 4s.
These par-4 scorers can hit the fairway and the green in regulation. They convert with the flatstick and that’s how they will contend for this $20 million dollar purse. Rory heads the list again with Tyrrell Hatton, Scheffler, Lucas Glover and Schauffele. All those names check a ton of boxes when it comes to competing at TPC Southwind. Don’t be thrown off by that acronym, this is a ball-strikers park. The last five winners have averaged double-digit gains tee-to-green over the field. Compare that to TPC River Highlands and you’ll see a difference. You also see a contrast in the average winning score. Since Southwind started with the WGCs in 2019, the average score is 15 under par. The best in the world play and the course does not offer up endless amounts of birdies.
Contenders need a healthy balance of bogey avoidance and birdie-or-better acumen. Well-rounded golfers excel on par-70 courses and that’s why the names on top of the list are recognizable. They will influence our Win, Place and Show, and not just at the St. Jude Championship. The BMW and Tour Championship are also being played on par-70 scorecards. Pay attention to our winners and those who contend around them. The next couple of weeks to finish the season are going to be strangely similar.
Win: Xander Schauffele
You know what I have my eye on this week, and Xander Schauffele checks all the boxes. Second in par-70 scoring, the well-rounded top-10 player in the world can save his season with a playoff win. TPC Southwind is a perfect fit for the X-man with his ability to score on par-4s and convert with the flatstick. Schauffele has finished inside the top 20 in all four majors and the Players, and he's gained over eight strokes against the field in his last 10 starts. As he and the other American stars start to grind and get ready for Rome, a playoff win would do wonders for his confidence. Take Xander Schauffele (+1800 SI Sportsbook) to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Last week's pick: Sam Burns was a respectable T14 but 10 shots off the winner's pace.
Place: Wyndham Clark
SI Sportsbook is offering even money for the U.S. Open champion to finish inside the top 20. Clark’s famous shot-tracer fade off the tee will fit TPC Southwind perfectly. Wyndham has been winning because he significantly improved his iron game. In his last 10 starts, Clark is gaining over three strokes against the field on approach and nearly eight strokes total. Take Wyndham Clark to finish Top 20.
Last week's pick: Winner! We tabbed J.T. Poston for a top 20 and he'd have cashed a top-10 ticket too with his T7.
Showdown: Lucas Glover over Lee Hodges
The last two PGA Tour winners are about to face off in Round 1 of the playoffs. In great form, I give Lucas Glover the edge over Lee Hodges. Glover’s ball-striking has been more than elite over his career. He finished third at the St. Jude last year, gaining over three strokes on the greens. Hodges won the 3M, but also missed three cuts in his last five starts. Take Lucas Glover over Lee Hodges H2H (-110 DraftKings).
Last week's pick: Winner! Brendon Todd finished a solid T7 and bested Gary Woodland by five shots in our matchup.
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Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Scottie Scheffler +600
Jon Rahm +800
Rory McIlroy +900
Patrick Cantlay +1400
Xander Schauffele +1800
Viktor Hovland +2000
Collin Morikawa +2200
Tyrrell Hatton +2500
Tommy Fleetwood +2800
Rickie Fowler +3000
Sam Burns +3000
Tony Finau +3000
Cameron Young +3300
Jason Day +3300
Jordan Spieth +3300
Matt Fitzpatrick +3300
Max Homa +3300
Wyndham Clark +3300
Tom Kim +3500
Brian Harman +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Russell Henley +4500
Sungjae Im +4500
J.T. Poston +5000
Sepp Straka +5000