2023 RBC Heritage: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Harbour Town Golf Links

Our expert likes a player at Hilton Head whose new caddie will show him the way to a first win.

Author:
Keith Stewart, PGA
Publish date:
Apr 11, 2023

HILTON HEAD ISLAND, S.C. — Augusta National Golf Club has wide fairways, massive elevation changes, and large greens. A week removed from the Masters, and now 47 of the 88 players who drove down Magnolia Lane have the opposite to contend with. Pete Dye’s Harbour Town Golf Links is the essence of a positional golf course. The par-71 scorecard measures 7,191 yards, almost 400 yards less than last week. So how will the PGA Tour’s finest attack the lowcountry?

Nestled along the shores of Hilton Head Island, the Sea Pines community has hosted this event for 50-plus years. From Davis Love III’s five wins to Satoshi Kodaira’s playoff victory in 2018, we have seen a cornucopia of champions. The PGA Tour’s pilgrimage to South Carolina’s coast has taken place following the Masters for nearly as long as the tournament has been around. The biggest difference in the 2023 edition is the designated status. Outside of the $20 million purse and $3.6 million for winning, this is the first time since 2015 that the Masters winner is playing.

There are 143 players in the field (Rory McIlroy has withdrawn).
The top 65 and ties will make the 36-hole cut and play the weekend.
Seven of the top 10 in the OWGR (8 of 10 SIWGR) are competing along with 38 of the top 50.
10 players who finished in the top 10 at Augusta National are in the field.
12 past champions are playing.

Augusta National’s length rewards power. Harbour Town Golf Links' average driving distance is 16 yards below the Tour average. Players favor accuracy off the tee versus "grip it and rip it." The narrow tree-lined fairways keep these guys in check. To give you an idea how tight they are, take a driver swing down your street and don’t hit any houses. Television doesn’t truly show how claustrophobic these holes can get.

Ballstrikers stand out in Hilton Head and this year we have the world’s best. My outright card consists of players who can consistently do the following.

Hit as many fairways as possible and when missing, still have an opportunity to hit the green. We call this statistic good drives gained.
Nearly 50% of approach shots at Harbour Town are struck between 150-200 yards. That’s 10% more frequent that the Tour average. Mid-iron play and proximity to the hole are requirements for contending.
Jordan Spieth won last year even with losing over two strokes to the field on the greens. Not a long-term strategy for success. The last 10 winners including Spieth’s win have averaged a four-stroke gain against the field with the flatstick.
The average winning score over the last five RBCs is 16 under par. Considering the strength of field and weather predicted, I believe you’ll need to go even lower. Favor the par-5 birdie-or-better players, par-4 scoring, and bogey avoidance.

The conditions for scoring this week will be much improved over Augusta. Temperatures are forecasted in the mid-70s with coastal breezes. It looks quite calm right now as I walk around the property. The course conditions are perfect for birdie production.

The historic cutline sits at +1 over the last decade.
The average winner’s pre-tournament odds for the last five years are +12400 (124-1). Go back 10 years and that average drops to +8200 (82-1).
Prior to becoming a designated event in 2023, three of the last 10 winners have had odds of +15000 (150-1) or more.

Thirty players are playing this course for the first time. One of those debutants is world No. 2 Scottie Scheffler. The GIR machine seems perfect for playing well on Pete Dye’s design. Much like last week, I do believe experience counts considerably here. A top-5 course for predictable player success, I’m also favoring history when building my best Win, Place, Show.

Win: Cam Young

I believe Cam Young will win the RBC Heritage. Not necessarily because he closed with a 66 on Sunday last year and finished third. Even his 68 this past Sunday at Augusta was great, finishing T7, but that’s not my reason either. Young is a strokes-gained off the tee machine. He takes apart courses with the driver. He’s ranked third in the field on approaches from 150-175. He’ll use that driver and mid-iron skill to differentiate himself, but he also has a significant edge. His new caddie, Paul Tesori, has decades of experience at Harbour Town. Webb Simpson won here, and his advice combined with Cam’s ball striking talent is the reason we will cash. Take Cameron Young (+2000 SI Sportsbook) to win the RBC Heritage.

Last week's pick: Scottie Scheffler finished T10 but no dice on our pick for him to repeat at the Masters.

Place: Jordan Spieth

Jordan Spieth won here last year with a below-average putter. He closed on Sunday at Augusta with 66 and nine birdies. He had 21 birdies for the week and is ready to defend at Harbour Town. He's ranked first in the field for par-5 scoring from 550-600 yards. One of the best mid-iron players on tour, he'll continue cashing checks on Hilton Head.

Take Jordan Spieth to finish top 20 (+110 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's pick: Corey Conners surprised many with a second-round 79 to miss the cut, which also did in our top-20 pick.

Showdown: J.T. Poston over Denny McCarthy

My H2H showdown this week features two very popular middle-tier players. Denny McCarthy has four starts at the RBC and a 70.21 scoring average (par 71). In three of those starts he lost strokes tee-to-green. J.T. Poston has three top 10s in five starts at the Heritage. His ability to hit greens in regulation suits this course. He’ll continue his fine mid-iron play this week in Hilton Head and get past Denny on Dye’s design. Take Poston over McCarthy H2H for the RBC Heritage (-120 Draft Kings).

Last week's pick: Winner! Justin Rose cashed in the showdown as he finished T16 to Tyrrell Hatton's T34.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the RBC Heritage and LPGA’s LOTTE Championship winners, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.