2023 Tour Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for East Lake Golf Club

The PGA Tour's final 30 battle for big bucks and the FedEx Cup at a course demanding accuracy off the tee.

Author:
Keith Stewart, PGA
Publish date:
Aug 22, 2023

ATLANTA, Ga. — There have been 10 multiple tournament winners in 16 years of FedEx Cup playoffs. Lucas Glover and Viktor Hovland have the form to become number 11, but 28 other players will have something to say about that in Atlanta at the Tour Championship.

East Lake Golf Club has hosted every Tour Championship since 2004. The top 30 know what they are getting into once the qualifiers are set on BMW Championship Sunday. On top of the skills needed to contend in Atlanta there’s also the score. I’m sure other SI writers will cover the list of starting positions, so let’s get into the action.

I’m here in Georgia and so is the summer weather, as the temperature will push 100 degrees each day. It is humid and the course looks pristine. Unfortunately for the fans and players, the forecast calls for little or no relief. We don’t have rain in the forecast and the wind predicted is just a slight breeze. East Lake has felt some precipitation in August, but not nearly enough to make the course play soft like in 2022.

The Zoysia fairways and Bermuda greens will be in perfect tournament condition for the PGA Tour's Super Bowl. In 2019, the Tour switched to a staggered start scoring system to reduce confusion around who wins the Tour Championship and ultimately the FedEx Cup. Since it started, players have made a run to the top and at least one from as far back as 2 under par has finished inside the top 5 each year.

Winning takes a much larger leap and the odds reflect that. To be completely transparent, most bettors don’t love the Tour Championship. No matter how you feel about the staggered start, there is value on this board. If you don’t see it on the outright list, you can definitely find it on the placement and head-to-head boards.

The successful players reaching the top 10 or winning a head-to-head match will show tremendous acumen off the tee. East Lake Golf Club is in the top 5 most penal courses for missing the fairway on Tour. With two reachable par-5s and eight par-4s measuring over 440 yards on this par-70, 7,300-plus-yard track, the driver is a certain key. Rory has three wins at East Lake in the last eight years. The best driver in the game started his tournament with a triple bogey in 2022 and still went on to win and shoot 17 under par.

Length off the tee aids on approach. Nearly 40% of the approach shots in Atlanta are played from over 200 yards. Hovland’s elite ability on approach makes him a favorite along with Xander Schauffele, who has never finished outside the top 10 in six starts! Both players have incredible long-iron skill and an aggressive personality. Schauffele spoke about it in his pre-tournament interview. Players have a final-week mentality and therefore we want the most aggressive players on our card.

Two or three other keys you need to consider if you want to win those weekend wagers are par-4 scoring and bogey avoidance. Brian Harman sits high on both of those lists and knows how to play in Georgia. The former Bulldog won the British Open in July and finished fifth at the BMW on Sunday. Harman is also a strong player from inside 50 yards. Short game and putting are the final differentiating factor to consider.

The last five winners have gained an average of six strokes around the green and putting combined. Those strokes-gained values are independent of the staggered start. A player’s ability to get the ball into the hole on a hard course really counts and sets our Win, Place, and Show for the week.

The Tour Championship marks an end to the current season. Enjoy the elite players as we will not see many of them again until Rome and then January. Have no fear when the Fortinet Championship starts in three weeks, I’ll be back on Tuesdays to continue helping you win and learn more about each week in my betting preview.

Win: Viktor Hovland

Multiple wins happen more than half the time in the playoffs. Viktor Hovland plays with an aggressive mindset and showing exceptional form. He will continue to fire at hole locations and convert birdie opportunities. The happy-go-lucky Hovland is a trained killer on the inside. He’s ranked top 10 in par-4 scoring, birdie-or-better percentage, short game, putting and driving. His only disadvantage this week is starting two strokes back of Scottie Scheffler. Take Viktor Hovland (+450 SI Sportsbook) to win the Tour Championship.

Last week's pick: A 62 on Friday put our man Max Homa squarely in the hunt for the weekend but he faded Saturday and came home T5.

Place: Sungjae Im

Sungjae Im is a resident of Atlanta. The South Korean ball striking star lives just outside the city and practices out of TPC Sugarloaf. Familiar with Georgia course conditions and heat, Im finished runner-up last year and has four starts in the Tour Championship. Last week he turned in four rounds in the 60s at Olympia Fields to finish seventh. Take Sungjae Im to finish Top 10 (+210 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's pick: We took Cam Davis to finish top 20 and he finished 40th.

Showdown: Xander Schauffele over Tom Kim

Xander Schauffele loves to play East Lake. In six starts, he has not finished outside the top 7. Tom Kim is making his first trip to the Tour Championship. Give Xander a huge edge in experience and the flatstick as Kim is ranked 23rd in putting. Take Xander Schauffele over Tom Kim H2H (-125 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's pick: We took Taylor Moore over Tony Finau and the Utahan finished T37 ... but Moore finished last. Sigh.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.