2026 PGA Championship Betting Roundtable: Favorites, Sleepers and Best Bets for Aronimink

We’ve reached the halfway point of men’s major season: the PGA Championship. This edition is set to be staged at Aronimink, a classic, Donald Ross design with old-school charm and very little history to guide bettors and fantasy players—which means it could be ripe for opportunity from savvy players.

Here to break it down we have convened a panel of Sports Illustrated golf writers and editors: Bob Harig, John Schwarb, Max Schreiber and Jeff Ritter, along with Iain MacMillan, Cody Williams and Brian Giuffra, three betting experts from our partners at SI Betting and FanSided. On to Aronimink.

Let’s start with the venue, Aronimink, which should look good on television but is a bit of a mystery and mostly unfamiliar among both the players and us bettors. What interests you about this course and how do you even begin to factor it into your wagers?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: Can a northern course offer the type of test a major championship wants to deliver this early in the year? It’s one of the biggest issues with moving the PGA to May. The PGA of America would love to have it firm and fast, but those conditions are difficult to achieve at this time of year. To me that makes it harder to pick a winner.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: While Ross is known for his green construction, Aronimink has typically produced winners who are elite ball strikers who also tend to be long off the tee. That makes sense when you think of the last major played at a Ross design: Pinehurst No. 2. That was the Bryson-Rory U.S. Open battle with Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau just behind. There’s a clear connection there.

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Excited for the Donald Ross greens, which should properly torment the players for a major. The par-3s are especially difficult, so not surprisingly I’ll start my handicapping with the best iron players.

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: The last PGA Tour event we saw played at Aronimink was the 2018 BMW Championship, and if we look back at the numbers for that event, short game had more importance than in an average tournament. Keegan Bradley won the event by leading the field in strokes-gained putting, gaining an average of +1.79 strokes per round on the greens. I’ll be targeting hot putters this week.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Nothing like a good, Northeastern track. At over 7,000 yards, I’m looking at those who can sling it off the tee.

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: The brief history of ball strikers finding success at Aronimink combined with those Donald Ross greens leave me worried about becoming Captain Obvious. But as is the case with major championships at large, I think this will come down to an all-around game with tee-to-green play coupled with the ability to navigate the greens.

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: I’m looking forward to seeing this old, classic track, which will look great on TV but also leaves me wondering if it’ll take a 20-under total to win it. The venue feels like a wild card, so I’ll look more closely at current form than trying to sort out the right course fit.

Rory McIlroy has declared himself refocused and much better prepared for this summer’s majors compared to last year off his first Masters win. Scottie Scheffler is the defending PGA champion and has strung together a run of recent runner-up finishes. Do you like either of the top two betting favorites at their current prices?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: It is so difficult to pick someone with single-digit odds in golf, as good as these guys are and can be. And the PGA is the deepest of the majors, which means their task is more of a challenge as there are more players to beat. I don’t discount either player but I’m not sure I’m betting on them, either.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: You have to time your shots on this and I don’t feel like this is the moment. Scottie, though still elite, doesn’t seem completely dialed. Rory is more interesting to me given his success at other Ross designs. He already broke one trend by becoming the fourth player to win back-to-back Masters. Winning two straight majors to start the season? That’s another bridge altogether. Tiger did it in 2002. Jack did it in 1972. Not sure I see Rory doing it this year.

John Schwarb, SI Golf: I dismissed McIlroy immediately in our Masters roundtable, not believing in a back-to-back run. Shame on me! But my position on single-digit prices (Scheffler being about 3.5 to 1, McIlroy 8 to 1) remains unchanged—wait for the live market and see if they might have better numbers after others start quickly.

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: McIlroy may have finally cracked the code at Augusta, but I’m not ready to bet on him at his current odds at other majors, especially considering his streaky putting this season. With that being said, I’ll be taking a long look at Scottie Scheffler, who has three-straight runner-up finishes without having his A+ game. His odds have also dipped to almost 5-1, so now might be the time to bet on the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: I think both have a real shot to win. Scheffler is primed to get in the winner’s circle for the first time in months, and McIlroy has the game off the tee to be successful here. Plus, did McIlroy unlock something in Augusta, playing freely?

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: On one hand, both Scheffler and McIlroy have my attention, especially with the current price on Scottie. I don’t think anyone would be surprised by either player hoisting the Wanamaker on Sunday. At the same time, I’m not nearly confident enough in either player with some of the form just below them on the board to have them on the card this week, at least as an outright play.

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: I’ll pass on Scottie and Rory at their current prices. It’s tough to repeat at the PGA (Scottie) and also brutally tough to win two straight majors (Rory), but I do think we’re set up for a winner who’s in top form. There are too many top guys playing well to drift too far down the board.

LIV Golf is in turmoil and its players did not fare particularly well at the Masters, save for Tyrrell Hatton’s tie for third place. Are you interested in any of this field’s 11 LIV Golfers at their current odds?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: I’ve never bought that playing LIV is an issue in the majors. They’re pro golfers and should figure out a way to be ready. That said, Rahm’s Masters performance surprised me and then he went out and won by a ton in Mexico City and is coming off a decent event in Virginia, where he had an albatross on Sunday. I’d have no problems picking Rahm.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: This has nothing to do with LIV. This has to do with form. And the answer is no. I just don’t see any of them winning, as I did at the Masters.

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Hatton is north of 50 to 1, that absolutely piques my interest. I don’t think the league’s turmoil factors in the handicap but the lack of proper tournament preparation still does, therefore I’m not interested in Rahm or Bryson at their prices in the vicinity of 15 to 1.

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: If Jon Rahm had posted some better results in recent majors, I’d be all over him this week, but I need to see it happen before I place any money on him at a major tournament. If there’s any other name I’d consider, it’d be Thomas Detry at 175-1. He’s posted top-five finishes in three of his last four LIV starts, so maybe he can carry that momentum into this week.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: I don’t think any of them will win, but if I was going to pick one, I’d go Rahm. He sort of bounced back at the Masters following an opening 78 and then won LIV Golf Mexico City the following week, plus a T8 last week.

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Brian might’ve said it the most succinctly. I have no problem backing players from LIV if the fit and form match up. When looking at the recent performance from the top players, though, I probably won’t have much (if any) exposure to LIV players this week.

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: LIV is in disarray and real or imagined, that coincided with its top players turning in a clunker at Augusta. I need a prove-it major from them, and am O.K. missing the ride on Rahm or Bryson this time if it happens.

The Masters uses sudden death to settle a playoff, while the PGA uses a three-hole aggregate if extra holes are needed. What’s your favorite way to break a 72-hole tie at a major?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: If you’re not going to play 18 holes, which, let’s face it, is outdated, then an aggregate of holes is the next-best thing. The British Open goes to four holes but also has a lot of daylight. So three holes at the PGA seems about right. We’ve yet to set a two-holer at the U.S. Open—believe it or not, Tiger’s 2008 win over Rocco is the last U.S. Open playoff—so I reserve judgment on how two holes might work.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Give me an 18-hole stroke play situation the next day. I’ll never forget Tiger’s win over Rocco Mediate at the U.S. Open. I will forget his playoff win over Chris DiMarco. Three-hole is a good alternative if we have to get it done that day. But I love an 18-hole one-on-one.

John Schwarb, SI Golf: I don’t love settling a major in perhaps just one hole, but the Masters’ sudden-death pressure cooker is so ingrained now that I wouldn’t want it changed. But the best pure format is the PGA’s three-holer.

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: That PGA Championship’s three-hole playoff is the best of both worlds. It doesn’t have the variance of a one-hole playoff, but it also doesn’t require an additional full round the next day, which is impractical in the modern age. Three holes feel like the perfect compromise.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Sudden death keeps viewers on the edge of their seats, but perhaps it’s not the fairest way to determine a major. A three-hole aggregate is perfect. If someone makes a mistake, they have one more chance to make it up and win.

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: I yearn for the days of the full 18-hole (or even 36-hole) playoffs in major championships. Those are a thing of the past, unfortunately, but I do prefer the aggregate playoff as opposed to sudden death. That’s not to say either reveals a worthy or unworthy champion, but the entertainment value of a mano-y-mano showdown across multiple holes gets the juices flowing.

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: It was a disaster for golf-media travel itineraries, but there was always something macho about those blood-and-guts 18-hole playoffs at the U.S. Open.

Give us one long shot, odds 60-1 or longer, who could surprise.

Bob Harig, SI Golf: Is J.J. Spaun really 80-1? That seems awfully high for the reigning U.S. Open champion, who is coming off a decent tournament at the Truist.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Adam Scott will be on my card at +6500 at FanDuel. We’ve seen his elder statesman counterpart, Justin Rose, nearly win a few majors over the last two years. Now it’s Scott’s turn. His tee-to-green game is elite. Like top-10-in-golf elite. Can he get the putter to cooperate? That’s why he’s priced where he is. But if that spikes, watch out.

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Patrick Reed at 74-1 is very tantalizing. Sign me up for him being in the hunt on Sunday afternoon in front of Philly fans.

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Rickie Fowler is at 65-1, and I think he has a chance to finally win his first major. He’s been quietly playing some great golf, posting a T8 finish at the RBC Heritage and a T9 finish at the Cadillac Championship, as well as a strong outing at the Truist Championship. Not only that, but he’s been putting the ball well all season and his approach play has been elite lately. As a cherry on top, he finished T8 at this course at the 2018 BMW Championship.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Gary Woodland. His worst finish since the Players Championship is a T38 two weeks ago at Doral. He’s driving the ball great, 13th on Tour off the tee and second in driving distance. Plus, he’s gaining strokes in every stat except around the green, which is worrisome, but as a longshot, he is worthy of a flyer. Aronimink also seems like a good course fit with his length.

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: You want a longshot? How about Mikael Lindberg at 850-1 on DraftKings right now—is that enough of a sleeper? In all seriousness, I doubt that the 33-year-old Swede is going to house the trophy this year, but he’s been relatively consistent on the DP World Tour this season with only one missed cut in eight starts. He also enters off a win in the Turkish Open, where he gained 11 strokes in ball striking and 2.45 strokes in putting. At 850-1, there’s value to be had even with some modest placements, even just to make the cut.

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: I’m not sure Keegan Bradley has fully recovered from his Ryder Cup captaincy last fall, but as a former winner at Aronimink at 125-1, he might be worth a look as an early leader or top-10 finisher.

And finally, there can only be one: who lifts the Wanamaker and why?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: Scottie Scheffler seems to have been just a little off all year, which I don’t believe will last. You know he’s determined to win again, and defending at the PGA seems more than likely.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: In 2024 ahead of Xander Schauffele’s first major win, there were questions about whether he would close the deal. It had been two years since his previous win. He had come close, but hadn’t won on Tour since 2022. Then he won two majors in three months. The same is true now. He hasn’t won a big tournament since the British Open in 2024, but he’s got a lot of top 10s and is again elite on approach. Schauffele would enter elite territory with a third major. He’s got it in him.

John Schwarb, SI Golf: I tossed out Rory McIlroy at the Masters, figuring he couldn’t go back-to-back, but I’m not making that mistake again with Scottie Scheffler. He couldn’t be more due after his three-event streak of runner-ups and he’s ready for this major the way he wants to be—he skipped the Truist even though it’s where he won his PGA last year. The one concern is his tendency to start slow (he’s 69th on Tour in Round 1 scoring average) but letting others jump out early only improves his live odds (a little). He’s No. 1 in final-round scoring, and with that he will lift the Wanamaker at Aronimink.

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Scottie Scheffler is going to win his second straight PGA Championship. He’s somehow coming into this week a bit underrated, having won just one tournament this year. But he’s in contention any time he tees it up, and he’s live to win even when he doesn’t bring his best stuff. It’s the boring prediction, but I think it’s the right one.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Cam Young. Right now, he’s arguably the best player in the world. Sixth on Tour in strokes-gained off the tee and 21st in approach make him a factor any time he tees it up. The question is, will his putter cooperate? For example, at the Truist, he shot a third-round 63, gaining two strokes on the greens. Then, a day later, he lost over five strokes with the putter amid a final-round 74. If he fixes that, he’ll win his first major.

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: While Cameron Young will be on the card in some capacity, I’m also a glutton for punishment and will run it back with Ludvig Åberg. I refuse to believe that a guy striking the ball at the level he is right now and consistently flirting with the top of the leaderboard isn’t going to break through at some point this season with a huge victory. Aronimink makes sense.

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Like I mentioned earlier, there are several top players who enter this week in great form, so I don’t think this is the week for a sleeper winner. In fact, I think it’ll be the best player of the moment, right here, right now. And as ramp up for a fun week ahead, no one is playing better than Cam Young. He wins his first major this week.

More Golf from Sports Illustrated

Add us as a preferred source on Google