What History Says About Wyndham Clark’s Chances to Win U.S. Open—and If He Could Choke on Sunday

Can anyone catch Wyndham Clark and his six-stroke lead? It’s been done before.

Clark is looking to close out the U.S. Open on Sunday for his second career major. | Erick Rasco/Sports Illustrated

The 2026 U.S. Open is Wyndham Clark’s to lose.

That’s not breaking news. It has been since he took advantage of the surprisingly friendly conditions at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Thursday evening and started his U.S. Open with a six-under 64. Clark set the all-time record for the lowest score through 36 holes at a Shinnecock-hosted U.S. Open on Friday, and on Saturday, he was nearly flawless with the putter until he missed a four-foot putt for par on the 18th green.

Clark should win. Clark needs to win. It would be one of the most shocking collapses in golf history if he doesn’t. But it’s not over yet, especially with a golfer of Scottie Scheffler’s caliber sharing a 2:30 p.m. ET tee time on Sunday.

What can history teach us about the 32-year-old’s journey ahead in Sunday’s final round? Let’s take a look:

What U.S. Open history says about Wyndham Clark’s chances to close out the win

Clark is the seventh player in U.S. Open history to carry a lead of at least six strokes into Sunday. All six previous golfers have gone on to hoist the trophy.

• 10-stroke lead: Tiger Woods (2000)

Woods shot a four-under 67 on Sunday at Pebble Beach to win the 2000 U.S. Open by a whopping 15 strokes, the largest margin of victory in major history.

• 8-stroke lead: Rory McIlroy (2011)

A 22-year-old McIlroy shot a two-under 69 on Sunday to easily close out his first career major win at 16-under par, eight strokes ahead of the runner-up Jason Day.

• 7-stroke lead: Jim Barnes (1921)

Like Woods and McIlroy, Barnes added to his lead on Sunday, defeating the competition by nine strokes. United States president Warren Harding presented Barnes with the U.S. Open trophy.

• 6-stroke lead: Fred Herd (1898), Willie Anderson (1903), John Goodman (1933), Wyndham Clark (2026)

Back in 1903, Anderson nearly fumbled away his six-stroke lead by shooting an 82 in the final round. He needed an 18-hole playoff to hold off David Brown for the U.S. Open title. Goodman saw a similar fate in 1933, struggling in the final round but doing just enough to beat Ralph Guldahl by one stroke.

• 5-stroke lead: The largest 54-hole lead to be fumbled away at U.S. Open

That “crown” belongs to Mike Brady, who entered the final round of the 1919 U.S. Open up by five strokes but shot an 80 and eventually lost to Walter Hagen in an 18-hole playoff. The other three golfers to notch a five-stroke lead at the U.S. Open entering the final round—Laurie Auchterlonie (1902), Bobby Jones (1930) and Martin Kaymer (2014)—ended up winning.

What major history says about Wyndham Clark’s chances to win

Only one golfer in major history has entered Sunday with at least a six-stroke lead and lost: Greg Norman at the 1996 Masters. It wasn’t close, either. Paired with Nick Faldo on Sunday, Norman completely fell apart in the final round and shot a 78. Faldo shot a 67 and won the tournament by a shocking five strokes.

Of the 21 players in history to enter Sunday of a major with a six-stroke lead or better, 20 have gone on to win the tournament.

The most recent golfer to lose a five-stroke lead on the final day of a major is Jean van de Velde, who limped to a six-over 77 in the final round of the 1999 British Open and lost a three-man playoff to Paul Lawrie.

Scottie Scheffler is lurking, and he’s been here before

If there’s any hope in a comeback from anyone in the field, it lies with Scheffler, who is a U.S. Open win away from becoming the seventh PGA Tour golfer to complete the career grand slam. And in a cinematic twist, Scheffler—six strokes back at one-under par—shares a 2:30 p.m. ET tee time with Clark.

The largest comeback for a tournament win in Scheffler’s illustrious career came at the 2024 PLAYERS Championship when he shot a final-round 64 to erase a five-stroke deficit on Sunday. Xander Schauffele entered the final round as the leader at 17-under, five strokes ahead of Scheffler. But right behind Schauffele was Clark, who began the day at 16-under and couldn’t do enough to hold off Scheffler’s furious run.

We’ll see what Scheffler has in store for Clark on his 30th birthday on Sunday.

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