The Outfield of Active Players Closest to the Cooperstown Cut Line

These stars have borderline Hall of Fame cases already. Will they accomplish enough by the time they finish their careers to get elected?

Editor’s Note: This is the second of three stories we’re rolling out on the active players with interesting Hall of Fame cases. We covered infielders on Friday and we’ll cover designated hitters and pitchers on Tuesday.

The outfield is a lonely place. It can feel like an island of grass out there, with only heckling fans within shouting distance and no one to back you up if a grounder goes through your legs. It takes a special sort of player to thrive there, and many of baseball’s best have called it home: Henry Aaron, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth. Mike Trout, the greatest player of this era, does, too. So do five of the last eight MVPs. As such, there are quite a few active players building impressive Hall of Fame résumés. Let’s talk about them.

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As I mentioned in part one, this “team” we’re building isn’t about players on track to be first-ballot inductees; it’s about the borderline cases. So, let’s get the guys in their own class out of the way.

Trout would be inducted if he retired tomorrow to chase his true passion of meteorology. Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts aren’t quite there yet, but neither turns 30 until October. Harper’s second MVP and Betts’s five-tool dominance—not just in the sense of his skills, but in terms of his five Silver Sluggers, five Gold Gloves, five All-Star nods (in addition to his MVP and two runner-up finishes)—have them on a gilded path to Cooperstown. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto have already secured World Series rings and look set to terrorize the NL East for the next decade-plus—assuming the Nationals lock up the modern version of Ted Williams—and have showcased generational talent since before they could legally drink at the ballpark bar. (It is worth noting that Acuña missed half of last season with a torn ACL, so he could not play while the Braves made their surprising World Series run.) Injuries are the only thing I’m worried about with either of them, and that’s no fun to think about. I’m including them among my HOF picks for now, while acknowledging here that they have played only four seasons and still have a long way to go.

Now, let’s move on to the players whose cases we’ll most likely be debating 20 years from now. Might as well get an early start, right?

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Left field: Christian Yelich

This is the least glamorous outfield position. The fleetest of feet typically cover the vast expanse of center field, and the strongest arms reside in right to gun down sneaky baserunners trying to go from first to third on a single. Left field is for whoever is left over. There are actually more primary left fielders (21) enshrined in the Hall than there are center fielders (19). Well, at least for now. While Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltrán and Trout soon are likely to increase the latter figure, there aren’t any slam-dunk left-field candidates, especially if Soto sticks in right going forward.

The most likely inductee is Yelich, who’s entering his age-30 season with just 160 home runs and 33.4 WAR, roughly half the amount of the average left fielder in Cooperstown. The face of the Brewers is hurt by a slow start to his career in Miami and subsequent sharp decline over the past two seasons. Yelich has an MVP trophy from 2018, a runner-up finish the following season when he was even better (he and Bryce Harper were the only hitters to post a single-season OPS of at least 1.100 in the '10s, and he and Larry Walker are the only two since 1930 to do so while stealing at least 30 bases), and then … no other campaigns with more than 21 home runs or an OPS above .859. His odds aren't looking great, but if he can rebound for a prolonged period and show that his back injury last season was the root of his power outage, he’ll likely drum up enough support to at least stay on the ballot for a while.

Another thing to consider is which non-left fielders might end up at the position long term. By some metrics, Kris Bryant grades out as a better defender in left than at third base. If his next team moves him off the hot corner and into left, he could also be included on this list of borderline guys.

HOF picks: Soto

He’s got potential: Yelich, Michael Brantley, Kris Bryant*

Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY Sports

Center field: Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen accomplished something no other player has been able to do ever since Barry Bonds left Pittsburgh; he made the Pirates watchable, for a time. The 2013 NL MVP made five All-Star teams, won four Silver Sluggers and a Gold Glove and finished in the top five of MVP voting four times during his time in black and gold. The Pirates’ only three playoff teams since 1992 were fronted by McCutchen, and he even helped the team with his departure, as his 2018 trade to the Giants (remember that?) brought '21 All-Star Bryan Reynolds to Pittsburgh. With 270 home runs and 197 stolen bases in his career, he’s close to becoming the 26th member of the 300/200 club, nine of which are Hall of Famers (a number that’d be closer to 15 if some weren’t stained by suspected PED usage). “Cutch” is also one of the most well-respected players in the majors, having won the Roberto Clemente Award in '15.

All that said, he’s a long shot to be voted in by the writers. McCutchen ranks 35th all-time in JAWS among center fielders, below Dale Murphy (who remained on the ballot for the maximum of 15 years but never topped 23.2%) and Bernie Williams (who fell off after two years). The 35-year-old may not be able to earn an everyday outfield job in 2022 after logging -10 defensive runs saved as Philadelphia’s primary left fielder last season. His 27 home runs and 109 OPS+ indicate there’s still some pop in his bat, especially against lefties (.293/.405/.622 slash line against LHP in '21), but it’s for the best if it comes from the designated hitter slot in the lineup.

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At the very least, Cutch is a Hall of Fame athlete when it comes to using Twitter (although, I really wish he would’ve elaborated more in this cryptic tweet after the Hall of Fame voting results were announced last week).

I’d also keep my eye on Luis Robert. The 24-year-old was once hailed as the next Mike Trout by teammate Eloy Jiménez, a comparison that was later backed up by Hall of Famer Frank Thomas and White Sox manager Tony La Russa. He obviously hasn’t come out of the gates that strong in his first two seasons. But when he wasn’t sidelined by a torn hip flexor last year, Robert slashed .338/.378/.567 and accounted for 3.6 WAR in just 68 games. No one under 25 had ever accumulated that much WAR in such few games during the live-ball era. It’s certainly a stretch to project him for the Hall at this stage, but if you squint and combine the strides he made at the plate in 2021 with the strong defense in center that won him a Gold Glove in '20, you can see what Jiménez, Thomas and La Russa were so excited about.

HOF picks: Trout

He’s got potential: McCutchen, Robert

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Right field: Aaron Judge

Every time Judge has played at least 120 games, he’s won a Silver Slugger and finished in the top five of MVP voting. Sounds like an inner-circle Hall of Famer, right? Well, unfortunately, due to a string of injuries to his wrist, oblique, ribs and calf, that’s only happened twice in his five MLB seasons. The former first-round pick also got a bit of a late start to his career, as he didn’t nail down a starting job until his age-25 season. That’s a devastating combination for anyone’s Cooperstown case.

If there’s anyone who can overcome it, though, Judge is a decent bet. The towering slugger set the MLB rookie record with 52 home runs (which was broken two years later by Pete Alonso), won the 2017 AL Rookie of the Year award and finished second to Jose Altuve in AL MVP voting—an award which is now somewhat tainted. He’s one of just seven players over the last 40 years (minimum 2,000 plate appearances) with a career OPS+ of at least 150. The others are Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Manny Ramírez, Trout and Soto. An underrated defender, Judge led all right fielders in defensive runs saved (19) in '19 and won a Fielding Bible award last season.

Because Judge holds court in the Bronx—and there’s no way the Yankees let him walk when he’s a free agent next offseason, right?—we can assume he’ll have some opportunities to bolster his case with clutch postseason moments (although considering the Yankees haven’t won a title in 12 years, perhaps maybe we shouldn’t). On the other hand, it’d be a risky assumption to think an injury-prone player will become more healthy in his 30s. Judge, who turns 30 in April, will remain a power threat as long as he’s in the league, but he projects to come up short on the counting stats favored by voters due to how much time he spends in the trainers’ room.

Judge’s teammate, Giancarlo Stanton, has played most of his career games in right field to this point, but when it’s all over, he could be considered more of a DH than an outfielder. Preview of what’s to come on Tuesday? You’ll have to come back to find out. For now, he’s under the "he’s got potential" here.

HOF picks: Harper, Betts, Acuña

He’s got potential: Judge, George Springer, Stanton*