Searching for the Rangers’ Suddenly Missing Stolen Bases
There have been relatively few surprises in how MLB’s new rules have invigorated the running game: The bigger bases and limitations on pickoff moves were designed to boost stolen bases, and so far they’ve done just that. MLB averaged 0.48 stolen bases per team game from 2019 to ‘22. That number is now all the way up to 0.69, a near 44% increase. Teams are attempting more stolen bases than they have in years, and they’re more successful than ever, too.
But here’s a team-specific wrinkle that has been a surprise: Whither the stolen base for the Rangers?
The Rangers led MLB in stolen bases last year with 128. (The league average was 83.) The steal may have been turning into something of an endangered species across the game—hence the need for the rule changes in the first place—but it was alive and well in Texas. And the team looked as if it would keep the trend going under the new rule book in 2023. While they did bring on a new manager in Bruce Bochy, the players who contributed the most steals last year are still all in town with playing time, a group led by Marcus Semien, Adolis García and Bubba Thompson. The Rangers would have seemed a smart bet to remain near the top of the leaderboard in stolen bases this year. And yet … not so!
Instead? The Rangers’ 13 stolen bases through Wednesday are tied for 21st in MLB and would put them on pace for roughly 88 on the season. While other teams are stealing more than they have in a long, long time, Texas is actually tracking behind where it did at this point in the season last year. So … what’s behind that? Here’s a look at a few potential factors behind the numbers.
The Rangers have been caught red-handed on the base paths at a higher rate than most teams, a surprising development considering their league-leading stolen base total in 2022.
Sam Greene/USA Today Network
Is it … that they simply don’t need to?
This Rangers’ offense has started the year hot. They’re behind only the seemingly unstoppable Rays in runs per game and OPS+. Even after getting swept this week by the Reds, they remain in first place in the AL West, with a better run differential than all but (you guessed it) the Rays. That’s not exactly the kind of scoring environment that makes a team drill down on how to get a boost on the margins. Of course, it’s not enough to make a team completely abandon the running game, either. (Or, at least, it shouldn’t be.) But it might be a component here. A lot has been going right for this offense. Perhaps there’s been more focus on all of that than on this.
Is it … a sign of a larger change in their running game?
There’s more to baserunning than basestealing. And there are some curiosities in the Rangers’ other running statistics. Take a look at the percentage of extra bases taken, which accounts for runners advancing from first to third on a single, and so on. Last year, Texas had an above-league-average 44% here. This year? They have the lowest figure in the AL with a rate of just 36%.
Now, that’s a blunt-force metric that smoothes over plenty of nuance, and there are all sorts of factors that go into whether it makes sense to try for the extra base in a given situation. But it’s still broadly illustrative. This is a team that’s been far less aggressive on the base paths this year, generally, whether or not a steal is in play.
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Is it … something going on with their fastest runners?
Let’s pull the Rangers’ five best runners by sprint speed: Thompson, Leody Taveras, Semien, Ezeqiuel Durán and Travis Jankowski. (Speed isn’t the only factor in stealing bases, of course, but you could do far worse for a quick stat that shows the skill by proxy.)
At a glance, this group actually seems primed to be stealing more bases this year, not fewer. Thompson and Durán were both rookies in 2022 with reason to count on more playing time in ‘23. Taveras is similarly a young player who is still developing. Semien may be on the far side of 30, but he clearly hasn’t lost his speed or durability, and Jankowski, the veteran reserve outfielder, was added to the team via free agency in January. There should be more opportunities for speed here—and that’s before considering the impact of the new rules.
Yet that hasn’t been the case. Only Semien and Jankowski have stolen more than two bases among this group. (Jankowski leads the team with four.) While Thompson has struggled (mightily) to get on base, the other four have been producing just fine, with each posting an above-average OPS+. The speed is here and healthy. It’s just … not being used to steal very many bases.
Thompson ranks in the 99th percentile of sprint speed, but he has only one stolen base due to reaching base just six times in 29 plate appearances.
Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports
Is it … Bruce Bochy?
That brings us to the manager. This is the one big piece that has changed here. Yet Bochy’s history doesn’t have much reason to suggest that he would have instituted a big change here.
This winter, after he was hired, Bochy told reporters about what he saw as the growing importance of the running game: “That’s where I think speed is going to be looked at more in our game. It’s tough to score runs. You saw how the game changed? Let’s go for the long ball more? Well, speed might become a bigger part of the game than it’s been in a long time, trying to manufacture runs more.” (He also specifically complimented Thompson’s speed.)
And take a look at the stats behind his managerial tendencies. While he’s led groups that have stolen bases at clips both above and below league average—there’s no consistent trend in his record—there’s at least plenty of evidence that he’s open to managing a steal-friendly environment. (One quirk to note: Bochy has long eschewed stealing third base other than in exceptional situations. The last time one of his teams had an average or above-average rate of trying to steal third was all the way back in 2001.) It would be a pretty dramatic shift in Bochy’s history to suddenly quash stealing on a roster proven so capable of it.
Is it … something to learn from their misses?
The Rangers have been caught stealing five times in 18 attempts. That gives them a stolen base percentage of 72%: certainly not great compared to a league average of 79%, but not totally abysmal, either. Yet it’s hard to draw too much from that. Why? Because three of the five instances in which Texas was caught stealing came from just one game. (That would be a 5–4 loss to Oakland last week: Not much has been going right lately for the A’s, but their young catcher, Shea Langeliers, has one of the best pop times in the game.)
There’s risk in leaning too heavily on analysis of one bad night. Which leads to another salient point: Yes, Texas is tracking behind where they were for stolen bases last year, but it’s still early enough in the season where one bad night can sway the leaderboard.
All of which comes out to an answer that's less than satisfying: Maybe it’s tied to the overall success of the offense, maybe it’s tied to the new regime, maybe it’s partly both or neither. But if the Rangers do choose to step up their baserunning later in the year in a return to form from last year? They seem to have all the ingredients in place.
