Nine Key Factors That Could Decide the Padres-Brewers NLDS

SAN DIEGO — Here are the 10 key factors you need to know about NLDS Game 3 tonight as the Brewers try to clinch the series against the Padres, who are 24–5 at home since July 31.

1. The Key Inning for Dustin May

Dustin May’s average first-inning velocity is 97.3 mph, with a high of 98.7 on May 15. Look for May to be above that when he takes the ball for Milwaukee in the possible clincher. Three reasons:

1. “He’s built for this kind of atmosphere,” pitching coach Chris Hook says.
2. The Brewers are giving him instructions to go as hard as he can without worrying about length.
3. Since acquiring him, Milwaukee has pushed him to lean on his fastballs more.

Since the trade from St. Louis, the Brewers have narrowed his six-pitch mix, taking away his changeup (he threw three in his first game with Milwaukee, none since).

Instead, they are leaning into what he does best, which is throw the three-fastball family. His fastball use with Milwaukee is 72.5%, up from 69.8%. The big leap is in his cutter usage: from 18.1% to 28.2%, turning it into his most used pitch with the Brewers. He is essentially the Milwaukee version of Cam Schlittler.

The first inning is key. May is working on nine days of rest. Game 2 starter Logan Henderson had 11 days of rest and came out with his highest first-inning velocity of the year but was uncharacteristically wild.

The Padres in the two wild-card games against the Cubs, with the energy of the home crowd behind them, led 2–0 after one inning and 2–0 after two innings.

May Fastball Usage by Month

Month	Fastball%
March/April	64.7%
May	67.9%
June	65.2%
July	68.9%
August (with MIL)	70.1%
September (with MIL)	77.3%

2. Milwaukee’s History of Clinchers

The Brewers have the worst record in potential clinchers overall and on the road. No Brewers starting pitcher has won a potential clincher. The franchise is 4–10 (.286) in potential clinchers, and 1–8 (.111) on the road—both marks being the worst among all franchises.

Game	Score	Winning Pitcher
1982 ALCS Game 5	4–3 vs. Angels	Bob McClure
2011 NLDS Game 5	3–2 vs. D-Backs	John Axford
2018 NLDS Game 3	6–0 vs. Rockies	Corbin Burnes
2025 NLDS Game 5	3–1 vs. Cubs	Jacob Misiorowski

When facing elimination, the Padres are 8–9, including 5–4 as the home team (one game at Texas in 2020) and 5–3 in San Diego, including three straight wins against the Cubs in 1984.

3. Get Ready for More Heat

The high temperature for Game 3 is expected to be 90 degrees, with readings in the 100s when the Brewers are chucking their many fastballs. The Brewers are the hardest throwing staff in recorded postseason history:

Highest Average Fastball Velocity in a Postseason, 2008-2026

Team	Average FB Velocity
1. 2026 Brewers	98.5
2. 2026 Dodgers	97.8
3. 2016 Mets	97.6
4. 2025 Padres	97.2
5. 2026 White Sox	96.7
5. 2026 Guardians	96.7

The Padres are seeing an onslaught of elite fastballs. The Brewers are throwing more fastballs than any team in the past four postseasons, throwing 59.9% four-seamsers and sinkers, topping this year’s Red Sox (58.3%) for first place and far above the 2026 MLB average of 50.8%.

San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. — Fernando Tatis Jr. was 1-for-10 in the first two games of the NLDS. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

4. The Strategy Against Fernando Tatis Jr.

Through two games of the NLDS, the Padres right fielder is 1-for-10 with three strikeouts, no extra base hits and no walks.

Is he slumping? Well, no. Look at the stuff he’s been facing.

Padres manager Pat Murphy has made it clear he wants nothing but his best right-handed power pitchers against the top of the San Diego lineup.

Tatis has seen only Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, Abner Uribe, Antonio Senzatela and Trevor Megill. He is seeing an average fastball velocity of 99.1!

Four-Seamers & Sinkers to Tatis Jr.	Pct.	MPH	BA
Regular Season	48%	94.7	.294
NLWC	51%	95.4	.000
NLDS	54%	99.1	.250

5. Can’t Get Anything Past Dustin Harris

The highest average fastball velo seen in the LDS this year—and any postseason series since 2008—goes to Padres outfielder Dustin Harris, who hits behind Tatis: 99.5 mph!

Harris has seen 50 pitches in two games. He has swung 25 times. And despite seeing an average fastball velocity of 99.5 mph, he has not swung and missed!

Highest Fastball Velocity Seen in Playoff Series, 2008-26 (min. 10 fastballs)

Player	Series	MPH
Dustin Harris, Padres	2026 NLDS vs. MIL	99.5
Brian Dozier, Twins	2017 ALWC vs. NYY	99.4
Yan Gomes, Cleveland	2016 WS vs. CHC	99.3

The Brewers have the youngest pitching staff in the majors (average age: 27), and they are riding the young arms in October. The Brewers this year had only 10 starts by pitchers 30 or older, third fewest in baseball.

Tuesday’s Game 3 is the 83rd consecutive game the Brewers are starting a pitcher in his 20s (last in his 30s: Thomas Pannone, July 29).

These two staffs have very different levels of experience:

2026 Postseason Pitches Thrown by Age

Team	20s	30s
Padres	173 (31%)	381 (69%)
Brewers	272 (88%)	37 (12%)

San Diego Padres pitcher Mason Miller — Mason Miller has shown an ability to bounce back from blown saves in San Diego. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

7. The Bounce Back of Mason Miller

After the blown save and loss in Game 2, Padres closer Mason Miller pulled aside pitching coach Ruben Niebla.

“The best thing about me,” Miller said, “is that I flush these games real fast.”

He’s not kidding. Miller had blown seven saves in his two seasons with the Padres. In his next appearances after those blown saves, he has thrown eight shutout innings with 12 strikeouts in eight innings.

One thing to keep an eye on: manager Craig Stamman prefers to stay away from asking Miller to get more than three outs. Setup reliever Adrian Morejon, who was not available in Game 2, will play a role in San Diego’s optimal plan of saving Miller for the ninth.

8. Buehler’s Happy Return

Pitcher Walker Buehler threw a bullpen in full uniform yesterday after he was returned to the Padres’ active roster after being placed on the postseason paternity list. He is lined up to start Game 4, if necessary, though he is available for Game 3 in relief if needed.

Buehler stayed behind in San Diego while the team was in Milwaukee. He threw a bullpen session Saturday. On Sunday, his wife, McKenzie, gave birth to the couple’s second child, their first son—in the middle of NLDS Game 2.

“It was around the the fourth or fifth inning,” Buehler says. “I was right there holding her around the neck in the delivery room with the game on [television]. Everybody is doing well.”

9. Ignore The Usual Pitch Tipping Conspiracy Theories

It happens every year around this time when anybody gets hit: the pitch-tipping conspiracists make noise. It makes for tired storytelling, but there is no basis in fact.

The Padres, like all teams, not only self-scout but also scout opponents for where any pitch tipping signals are coming from. (It’s usually from the coaching boxes.) An army of analysts are dedicated to this spycraft. The Padres know when signals are being sent. They saw no such signs in Game 2.

The Brewers didn’t hit Miller. They refused to chase.

Miller Chase Rate	Out of Zone	Swings	Pct.
Regular Season	631	228	36.1%
NLWC	11	4	36.4%
NLDS	21	1	4.8%

In the ninth inning Milwaukee did not swing at all 14 Miller pitches out of the zone. His biggest mistake was walking Gary Sanchez with a backup slider on a 3-and-2 count to bring Milwaukee’s best hitter, Jackson Chourio, to the plate. It was poor execution of a dubious pitch choice.

So, what really happened?

“They swing less than any team in baseball,” explains Niebla. “It’s what they do, especially with every at-bat heightened in the postseason. We just have to be in the zone more.”

The Brewers swing less often (44.1%) than any team in the past six years. Miller’s problems were about a loss of control in a rare second inning of work to the most patient team in baseball.

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