Breaking Down the Crowded AL MVP Race—and Who Could Top Aaron Judge

It’s a packed field to be honored as the American League's best player. Here’s a look at the five leading candidates to take the crown from Judge.

Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez leads the American League with 21 home runs. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The 2026 MLB season is just over a third of the way through, and there’s been little separation in the race for the AL MVP award.

Other awards races have garnered more attention in the early goings, and that’s somewhat understandable. The NL Cy Young award, in particular, has seen a crowded field of arms off to dominant starts—Shohei Ohtani, Cristopher Sánchez and Jacob Misiorowski, to name a few—while the rookie classes in both leagues appear to be loaded.

The names at the top of baseball’s various WAR leaderboards suggest that the field of contenders is primed to be bunched up for the foreseeable future. And that’s a welcome change—the last five AL MVPs have been split between Aaron Judge (still in the hunt this year despite a relatively slow start) and Shohei Ohtani (now, of course, in the NL).

Judge remains the betting favorite to win his fourth MVP award, though his current slump (he’s hit .205 with two homers in his last 20 games) has left the door open for a whole host of challengers to make their cases. Let’s break down the shortlist of the top AL MVP contenders to Judge’s throne.

Note: All statistics are updated entering Wednesday's games.

Yordan Alvarez, DH, Astros

After a lost 2025 season that saw him hit just six homers in 48 games, Alvarez has made quick work in reminding the baseball public that he’s still one of the best hitters on the planet. The 28-year-old leads the majors in wRC+ (188) and leads the AL in home runs (21), seemingly in full control of his craft. Alvarez’s walk rate (15.0%) is the highest of his career, and he’s maximizing what’s always been top-of-the-scale power by posting his highest pull air rate (28.7%). Add it up, and the three-time All-Star is easily on pace to post his first career 40-homer season.

Yordan Alvarez connects for home run No. 21! pic.twitter.com/OZ0JhrugKg

— MLB (@MLB) June 3, 2026

Traditionally, the bar for a DH to win the MVP award is a high one, but Ohtani pulled it off in 2024 while recovering from elbow surgery (and therefore not pitching). Of course, it took 54 homers and 59 stolen bases to do so. Alvarez is not going to reach those benchmarks, but if he can maintain his status as the most feared hitter in the league, he’ll have a real shot at taking home some hardware.

Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals

Bobby Witt leads the majors in WAR but is a bit lacking in offensive production. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Pay no mind to the Royals’ record; Witt is having another phenomenal season. The do-it-all shortstop is leading baseball in fWAR and tied for the lead in bWAR, with nine homers and 19 stolen bases to go along with a 126 wRC+. He ranks second to only Pete Crow-Armstrong in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, looking poised to win his third straight Gold Glove.

MVP voting has come a long way since the days where a player on a team with a losing record had virtually no chance of winning. Still, Kansas City’s abysmal start to the season won’t do Witt’s candidacy any favors. He’s been outstanding to begin the year, but will likely need to post a higher home run total and continue leading the league in WAR to make a serious push.

Ben Rice, 1B, Yankees

Rice has followed up last year’s breakout with a legitimate star turn in 2026. The 27-year-old leads the majors in slugging percentage (.650) and trails only Alvarez in wRC+ (186). His 44 RBIs also lead the AL while his batting average ranks fourth, likely boosting his profile among any voters left who still value traditional back-of-the-baseball-card stats.

Being teammates with a three-time MVP gives Rice a big obstacle to overcome in terms of swaying voters that he means more to the Yankees’ success than Judge, but it’s not impossible to envision an in-his-prime Rice holding a decent advantage in playing time (and, therefore, counting stats) if the 34-year-old Judge misses games here and there with minor injuries (he hasn’t played since Sunday while dealing with bruised ribs).

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics

A's first baseman Nick Kurtz leads the majors with a .440 on-base percentage. | Scott Marshall-Imagn Images

Kurtz is the modern God of Walks, taking free passes at a 20.4% rate during a season in which he drew a walk in 20 consecutive games. That was part of an on-base streak that lasted for 48 straight games, tying a team record. His .440 on-base percentage is far and away the highest in the league (Alvarez ranks second at .419), and he ranks third among qualified hitters in wRC+ (164).

If there’s a quibble with Kurtz’s performance so far, it’s that his power from last year's raucous debut—he clubbed 36 homers in 489 plate appearances, which included a historic four-homer game—has yet to break out. He’s managed just 11 so far in 2026, which still paces him for around 30 on the year, yet is fewer than most predicted coming into the season. As the weather heats up in Sacramento, and with Kurtz still boasting some of the game’s most elite bat speed, here’s betting that the long ball pace picks up. If it does, and if the A’s can hang around the AL West race, Kurtz will keep himself firmly in the MVP conversation.

Cody Bellinger, LF, Yankees

Don’t sleep on the season Bellinger is putting up. The 2019 NL MVP is currently tied with Witt for the lead in bWAR (3.5), keeping himself in the mix to get some more hardware in his age-30 season. A lineup-anchoring first baseman who hit 47 homers at age 23 back in ’19, Bellinger has evolved into a hitter with a refined approach even without gaudy home run totals. He’s walking at a 14.8% clip, the highest of his career, along with a career-best 12.8% strikeout rate. His 141 wRC+ is his best since his MVP campaign, and he’s enjoying that offensive success while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in left field—he ranks second only to Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson in Outs Above Average at the position.

Cody Bellinger cuts down the runner at third before the go-ahead run reaches home plate! pic.twitter.com/OxW3cXA9v0

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) May 24, 2026

After he injured his shoulder during the 2020 postseason, Bellinger struggled in his final two years with the Dodgers, posting a .193/.256/.355 slash line in 239 games from ’21 to ’22 with a 27.1% strikeout rate, leading the Dodgers to non-tender him. He rediscovered his way by optimizing his swing for more contact, and his career-long propensity to pull the ball in the air made him a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium. He might not post the most eye-popping stat line of all the MVP candidates, but in a year that’s been wide-open so far, Bellinger’s broad statistical appeal can allow him to remain a constant presence in the MVP discussion.

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