Yusei Kikuchi 2026 Season Predictions- Can He Build On His All-Star Season

After getting an All Star nod in 2025, Yusei Kikuchi wasn't able to carry that momentum into the second half of the season. At his best he looked like a legit No. 1 option, but that level of performance didn't hold consistently. Let's take a look at some data and what it could mean moving forward.

The key for Kikuchi moving forward is whether he can tighten up the inconsistencies that appeared later in the year, with one factor to watch being a notable change in his arm angle, from 36 degrees to 50 degrees this season.

What the prediction models say:

Baseball-Reference is projecting little deviation in Yusei Kikuchi's performance, pointing to a similar season to last year. They project a 4.10 ERA, a 1.341 WHIP, with an 8-9 record, and 167.0 innings pitched.

Over at FanGraphs they are predicting for Yusei's innings to drop down to 158.0. For ERA they have him ending the year with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, with a 7-8 record.

Mar 27, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi (16) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Reasons for optimism:

Yusei Kikuchi demonstrated in the first half of last season that he is capable of pitching at an elite level. From March through the MLB All Star break in July, he posted a 3.11 ERA while recording 115 strikeouts and holding opponents to a .247 batting average.

Something else I mentioned earlier that could bring a bit of optimism into this season is Yusei Kikuchi's change in arm angle. It's the highest it's been since his rookie year, which makes it an interesting adjustment to watch. I'm curious to see how it impacts his performance, especially if it helps with consistency or pitch effectiveness. It also raises the question of whether this is a deliberate change from the coaching staff aimed at getting more out of his arsenal.

Reasons for pessimism:

Heading into his 8th MLB season, Yusei Kikuchi will turn 35 this summer. At this stage of his career, it's fair to question how much room for improvement remains. A recurring pattern throughout Kikuchi's career has been strong starts followed by regression in the second half, raising concerns about his long term consistency.

Apr 7, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels pitcher Yusei Kikuchi (16) high fives catcher Travis D'Arnaud (25) during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Navarro-Imagn Images | William Navarro-Imagn Images

Angels On SI Prediction:

I think Yusei Kikuchi will finish slightly below what the predictions models say. Given the inconsistencies he has shown throughout his career I'm projecting a 4.37 ERA. However, I do expect him to outperform some of the strikeout projections. While Baseball-Reference has him at 169 strikeouts, I see him finishing closer to 190.

Even with the higher ERA I'm predicting , I believe his record will be better than both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference predict. I have him finishing with an 8-7 record.

Final Predictions: 4.37 ERA, 1.553 WHIP, 172.2 Innings pitched, 190 strikeouts and a 8-7 record. Let's come back at the All Star break and the end of the year to see how it holds up.