Dana Brown Makes Bold Prediction for Houston Astros After Rollercoaster Offseason

After a rollercoaster offseason, do the Houston Astros have enough talent to win the AL West again?

Aug 1, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown speaks with media before the game against the Cleveland Guardians at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Spring training is here, which means the MLB offseason is essentially over (except for Alex Bregman).

It's been a wild winter for the Houston Astros, who enter 2025 with a significantly different roster from last year. The organization lost franchise icons like Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Justin Verlander, replacing them with new stars like Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker.

With their tumultuous offseason behind them, the Astros will look to win a fifth straight AL West title in 2025. Despite moving on from several of his best players, general manager Dana Brown believes Houston is still well-positioned to defend its division crown this year.

Brown gave his roster a vote of confidence on Wednesday, telling reporters that he envisions another first-place finish for his club.

Astros GM Dana Brown on potential for further roster additions: "I’ve always said, I’m in the market for pitching, you never know what’s going to come up. But right now, our roster’s pretty good. I think we’re pretty much in shape to be in position to win this division."

— Matt Kawahara (@matthewkawahara) February 12, 2025

Brown also implied that he's unlikely to make any more major roster moves before Opening Day, with the caveat that he's always open to adding more pitching.

This is somewhat disappointing news for Astros fans, many of whom are feeling lukewarm about the team's offseason.

Bregman and Tucker combined for 8.8 WAR last year in 223 games. Meanwhile, Paredes and Walker were worth 5.3 WAR in 283 games combined.

As such, both feel like significant downgrades, especially given Walker's age (he turns 34 in March) and Paredes' second-half slump last year. Thus, Houston seems to have gotten worse on paper.

That's a discouraging trend for a team that has seen its record decline in each of the last two seasons. After finishing with their lowest full-season win total (88) since 2016 and failing to win a playoff game last year, the Astros seem to be heading in the wrong direction.

Houston will have plenty of competition in the AL West this year. The Seattle Mariners have won at least 85 games in each of the last four seasons, while the Texas Rangers are only one year removed from winning the World Series and should be healthier after an injury-marred 2024.

Several projection systems are expecting the Astros to be worse this year, including PECOTA. Baseball Prospectus predicts the Rangers to win the AL West with approximately 90 wins, followed by Houston (87.5 wins) and the Mariners (86.4 wins).

The Astros managed to recover from an abysmal start last year, going from last place in early May to first place by late July. However, they may not be as fortunate this year if their division rivals perform up to expectations.

So while Brown may like his roster for now, he'll likely need to add reinforcements at the trade deadline if he wants to win the AL West again.

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