Assessing Yordan Alvarez’s Chances of Winning Astros First Triple Crown

The Houston Astros have never had a triple crown winner at the plate. Yordan Alvarez can change that.

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

It’s hard to escape just how good Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez has been this season. But three numbers stick out.

They’re easy ones to pick up on. After his 1-for-4 performance against Kansas City on Sunday, Alvarez was batting .326 with 24 home runs and 54 RBI. He has played in 72 games, and the Astros have played 73 games. The midway point of the season — 81 games — will hit Houston in a little over a week.  

Alvarez leads the American League in all three categories, the traditional “Triple Crown” numbers for hitters. Houston has never had a Triple Crown winner. The AL hasn’t had a Triple Crown winner since Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera did it in 2012. That season he batted .330 with 44 home runs and 139 RBI.

Can Alvarez do it? The season is deep enough for pundits to give it consideration. Here is where Alvarez stands after 72 games, who is chasing him and his chances.

Batting Average

Tampa Bay Rays designated hitter Yandy Diaz. | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Closest Pursuer: Yandy Díaz (Rays) .321

Alvarez and Díaz are two of four qualified AL hitters batting over .300. The others are Texas’ Josh Jung (.307) and Toronto’s Ernie Clement (.304). Alvarez has more hits than any of them (85), though Clement is right behind him with 84. Alvarez is averaging 1.18 hits per game. With 90 games remaining, assuming Alvarez plays every game, he would have 191 hits. The most hits he’s ever had in a season is 170 back in 2024. He played in 147 games.

It’s doable, but Diaz will be hard to shake. Like Alvarez, he’s being used primarily as a DH. He’s batted .300 or better twice in a full season and has a lifetime .293 batting average. He doesn’t have Alvarez’s pure power. But he’s had at least 140 hits in each of the last four seasons.

Alvarez has a good chance, but not a great chance, of holding off Diaz.

Home Runs

Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton. | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Closest Pursuer: Byron Buxton (MIN), 22.

Alvarez been a remarkably consistent slugger when healthy. He hit at least 30 home runs per season from 2021-24 but never had more than 37. Last season he had 24 even though he only played 72 games.

Alvarez is on pace for a career high in home runs this season. He’s already hit 24 home runs and is average one per every three games. That math is easy. That’s 30 home runs in his final 90 games, giving him 54 home runs.

Buxton is also a consistent slugger, though not quite at Alvarez’s level. He’s hit 10 or more home runs in each of his last eight seasons, but he’s coming off a career-high 35 in 2025. There’s a good chance Buxton will eclipse that this season. Buxton has reached 22 home runs in 11 fewer games than Alvarez but has never played in more than 126 games in a single season.

There’s a better chance Alvarez holds onto this lead. The only other AL player with 20 or more home runs is Chicago White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami. He has only played 57 games. If Alvarez stays healthy, this could be the category he wins with the most ease.

RBI

Houston Astros first baseman Christian Walker. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Closest Pursuer: Nick Kurtz (ATH), 52; Christian Walker (HOU), 52

The irony would be if Walker was the one that kept Alvarez from the Triple Crown. The first baseman is having a resurgent season and has played as many games as Alvarez. He hasn’t hit as many home runs — but he has 18 — but Walker has hit as many doubles. Kurtz has 16 home runs and 13 doubles. Both have fewer hits than Alvarez, but Kurtz (.286) has a better average than Walker (.247).

Alvarez is pacing toward more than 100 RBI for just the second time in his career. He had 104 in 2021. This might be the hardest one to hold onto because one doesn’t need to hit home runs to drive in runs. Kurtz or Walker could get hot in other areas and pass him at the finish line. Detroit Tigers catcher Dillon Dingler is the only other AL hitter with 50 or more RBI. A catcher’s workload will probably keep him out of the running.