Hayden Wesneski Looks Like Himself Again, and the Astros Need It to Be Real

Hayden Wesneski is back. His last two starts have been dominant, especially the five innings he pitched while limiting the New York Yankees to three hits and one run to win the series in New York.

In his six starts during August, Wesneski went 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA. The Houston Astros have won five of those six starts, which has been a relief given the recent inconsistencies of Peter Lambert — he has fallen to 0-2 with a 5.45 ERA in his last seven outings — Cristian Javier, Tatsuya Imai and Ronel Blanco in the starting rotation.

If we judge Wesneski by his ERA, we would be missing a very interesting point. To begin with, he has pitched at least five innings in five of his six starts. The reason his ERA has been affected is a bad inning in his start on August 15, when he allowed five hits and four runs in the second inning against the Seattle Mariners at Daikin Park. That has affected his overall ERA, but it also distorts the way we should analyze the effectiveness of his starts at home.

Wesneski appears in the splits with a 4.20 ERA at home and a 3.57 ERA away. However, the difference in his OPS allowed is considerable: .707 vs. just .604 when he pitches at home. So it is likely that during this month that difference in ERA will adjust according to the offensive line Wesneski has allowed, in a year where he has already surpassed his innings from last season (32 ⅔ innings vs. 32) in the same number of starts.

The Second Time Through the Order Has Been the Real Test

Houston Astros pitcher Hayden Wesneski (39). Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Before talking about Wesneski’s adjustments, we could not let this pass, since he has been very effective in a vulnerable area that has constantly affected the Astros in recent seasons: he has stood out as the most dominant pitcher in 2nd Through Order as SP. His .573 OPS is the lowest of any Astros pitcher this year. Yes, it is a sample of 54 batters faced, but we cannot forget that Wesneski arrived in Houston last year with a reliever profile.

In that same situation and with similar samples, Javier (1.080 OPS), Blanco (.858) and Imai (.860) have been heavily bombarded. Javier and Imai’s appearances as relievers have offered different results as they prepare to focus on facing a single lineup turn. Blanco, in his return on Tuesday night, threw four consecutive scoreless innings with 88 pitches over four innings.

For Astros starters, finding that balance of being able to get through the opposing lineup for a second time has been a difficult obstacle to overcome.

Wesneski’s Sweeper Has Become His Most Trusted Weapon

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski (39). Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Well, the question of how Wesneski is doing it is inevitable. The adjustments begin with the improvements in the Vertical Break of his four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup and slider. Unlike those pitches, the main weapon in his arsenal, the sweeper, has lost break and 3.6 mph of velocity compared to last year. However, the effect has been positive, as he is gaining command and it has become his most trusted pitch.

Last year, it was the four-seam fastball, which Wesneski threw 36.6% of the time. Now it is the sweeper, with a 30.2% usage rate. The results are revealing: the opposition has gotten only one extra-base hit —a double— in 32 plate appearances, with just four hits and 13 strikeouts. The whiff rate has reached an outrageous 42.6%. They simply cannot hit it and, when they do, they have hit just .143 BA with a baffling .167 xBA.

Wesneski’s fastball is also at a good point of command in this conversation, with hitters posting a .651 OPS. His flaws reveal that he still has tendencies to get himself into trouble, as he allows a 99 wRC+, but compared to the 135 he has allowed throughout his career, the adjustments have also been positive.

So it is very likely that Wesneski will reconsider his problems with the sinker, while he is beginning to give more room in his repertoire to the curveball. His past experience as a reliever can also be a helpful complement throughout the process. And, at least in these first six starts, the results have been interesting.

Now he has an entire month ahead of him to compete, and we will see if Wesneski can strengthen the biggest dilemma Houston has dealt with all year: the effectiveness and durability of its starters.

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