Houston Astros’ Gamble on Cristian Javier in Rotation Isn’t Paying Off

For Cristian Javier the first four innings of his start for the Houston Astros on Sunday were brilliant.

He didn’t allow a run. He retired nine of the first 10 hitters he faced, with only Brian Serven claiming a hit. He struck out eight batters. He gave up two hits and a walk. A terrific catch by center fielder Daulton Varsho kept the Athletics scoreless. Houston’s lineup staked him to a 6-0 lead.

After Saturday’s collapse and 4-3 loss, this was exactly what the Astros needed. Until it wasn’t.

By the end of the top of the fifth, Javier was out of the game. The Athletics tied the contest, 6-6, and he was in line for a no-decision. It was emblematic of his month in the rotation — a high ERA and little for he and the Astros to show for it.

Cristian Javier’s Brutal August

Houston Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier follows through on a throw to the plate. — Houston Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier. Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

When the Astros brought Javier back in July after two months on the IL with a grade two shoulder strain, they put him in the bullpen. At the time Houston had a surplus of starting pitching. Putting Javier in the bullpen eased it. He proved effective. He went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five appearances in July, only one of which was a start. He struck out 17 and walked six in 12 innings and batters hit .234 against him.

Moving him into the rotation wasn’t controversial. On July 27 he threw 70 pitches in five innings of relief and gave up three hits. He appeared ready for the rotation. He’s been anything but ever since.

In the fifth inning on Sunday the .317 opponent batting average he’s given up this month came back to bite him. He gave up a leadoff single to Donovan Walton, followed by issuing a walk to Darell Henaiz, who challenged strike three and won as the ball was just off the left edge of the plate. Then Serven homered off Javier, his fourth of the season, to cut Houston’s lead in half, 6-3.

That was it for him. But that means turning to an overtaxed bullpen. Enyel De Los Santos gave up three runs later in the frame and it was a brand-new ballgame.

Javier’s August shows a pitcher struggling with command. He’s reached six innings just once, his only quality start. Otherwise, he’s struggling to give Houston five innings and his Statcast page is a sea of blue, which isn’t good. Most notably, his ground ball rate is 24.6%, in the first percentile in the game. While he’s never been a ground ball pitcher, he usually has a high chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate to offset it. He doesn’t this year.

What Javier has been this month is a “close your eyes and touch a screw” kind of pitcher. In other words, you’re hoping for a little luck. That’s been in short supply for the right-hander as Houston is knee-deep in a playoff race.

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