Houston Astros Playoff Push: Where Their Odds Stand Right Now

With the day off, here's where the Houston Astros sit in current playoff odds before heading home to host the Tampa Bay Rays.

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) and teammates celebrate left fielder Yordan Alvarez's (44) grand slam home run. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Houston Astros dropped a three-game series against the Minnesota Twins after having a chance to take the series the other way around. Getting the off day before heading back to Houston to host the Tampa Bay Rays, here's where things stand for the Astros amid their playoff push.

June was a much better month for the franchise, gaining ground in the AL West division and the AL Wild Card competition. However, they still sit under .500, with a 43-46 record. Despite the underperforming record, Houston sits third in the divisional race, just two games behind.

With the playoffs more within reach now than they were at the start of June, the Astros still have a ton of work to do to increase their playoff likelihood. This upcoming series against the first-place Rays will dictate if they have what it takes to compete against playoff contenders as they rank right now.

Astros' Playoff Odds Revealed

Houston Astros manager Joe Espada (19) returns to the dugout | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

FanGraphs provides playoff chances for all 30 MLB teams, and as the second half quickly approaches, the Astros want to see their number increase. As of July 2, Houston holds a 33.1% chance of making the playoffs in general, which is the third-best odds in the AL West behind the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers.

The AL West is probably the biggest dogfight in Major League Baseball, so even if the Astros don't win the division, they still have a chance of an AL Wild Card spot. Currently, the likelihood of Houston making the playoffs as a Wild Card team sits at 23.8%.

With the first half of the season set to conclude against the Rangers, the Astros need to play their best baseball against the Rays and the Washington Nationals, right after hosting three games at Daikin Park.

As it stands, the Astros hold a 9.3% chance of winning the AL West, with both the Mariners and Rangers holding percentages in double digits - Mariners 59.7%, Rangers 26.2%.

The Astros have the pieces of a winning team. With Hunter Brown back and healthy, leading the starting rotation, as well as getting top-notch performances from Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker in the power department, more wins should be under this franchise's belt for 2026.

Houston sends Spencer Arrighetti to the mound to begin the series against the Rays, looking to bounce back following his poor start against the Detroit Tigers. Entering the new series, Arrighetti has lost the last three games he started.