Mike Burrows’ Numbers Don’t Tell the Full Story for Astros

The Houston Astros made the trade for Mike Burrows this offseason, expecting great things, and in return, he's been very unlucky to begin the 2026 campaign.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Mike Burrows (50) walks to the dugout before the game. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros' offseason was filled with moves. At the time, some moves looked better than others, but one move that the front office felt very confident about was adding starting pitcher Mike Burrows from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Burrows had a strong spring training for Houston, and while that isn't an area that holds much weight once the regular season begins, it showcases who has swing and miss stuff. Burrows looked to carry that spring success into the regular season, but it hasn't quite panned out.

After his most recent start against the Boston Red Sox, Burrows now holds a 5.97 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. However, while those numbers seem inflated, the expected statistics for the Astros starter reveal that he's been one of the most unlucky pitchers in Major League Baseball in 2026.

Burrows' Expected Numbers vs Reality

Houston Astros pitcher Mike Burrows (50) walks to the dugout after retiring the side. | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

In a recent article by The Athletic's Chandler Rome, he highlights that Burrows' lack of success in terms of physical numbers doesn't tell the full story. Included in the article are numbers that Burrows should have in 2026, compared to what the reality is. (Stats below are before his start against Boston).

Actual Batting AVG: .310
Expected Batting AVG: .241
0.74 difference

Actual Slugging %: .523
Expected Slugging %: .393
.130 difference

Actual wOBA: .357
Expected wOBA: .311
.046 difference

Actual ERA: 6.25 (now 5.97)
Expected ERA: 3.85
2.40 difference

Houston Astros starting pitcher Mike Burrows (50) delivers a pitch. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The biggest standout is how Burrows' ERA looks in reality compared to what he's expected to hold. That could be a case of poor defense behind him, unlucky hits, or a lack of clutch pitching. Regardless, Burrows hasn't pitched as poorly as the numbers show.

However, when it comes to expected vs reality, it's difficult for a player and organization to look past the reality when the expected is supposed to be better. The reality is that Burrows hasn't pitched well for Houston, statistically, and that needs to change, as Rome also agrees with.

As Burrows said in Rome's article, "It's a humbling game. You can do everything right, and still, stuff happens."

Burrows has shown and proven to the Houston organization that he can be reliable, and perhaps as the calendar changes over, the Astros will start to see some improvement from their starter. He wasn't the issue in the Astros' defeat to the Red Sox in the series opener on Friday.

If Houston wants to keep itself afloat before drowning at the bottom of the AL West division, Burrows will need the baseball gods to be on his side as the season continues.