MLB Writer Offers Bleak Outlook For Astros in 2026

One MLB writer thinks it might be too late for the Houston Astros to recover from a slow start.

Houston Astros infielder Carlos Correa | Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

Sitting at an American League-worst 11-19, it's fair to say that the Houston Astros haven't gotten off to the start that they had hoped for. There's no singular cause for the club's struggles, injuries, pitching woes and poor defense have all contributed to a shaky first 30 games.

Losing is not something that the Astros franchise is accustomed to of late. The 2017 and 2022 World Series champions have reached the playoffs in eight of the past nine seasons and have finished with a winning record in 10 of their past 11. Even in snapping an eight-year postseason streak in 2025, they still managed to win 87 games.

At this point in 2026, Houston is on pace for a 59-103 record.

Is the Astros' Hole Already Too Big?

Houston Astros manager Joe Espada | Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

While being eight games under .500 with more than 130 games remaining is hardly an overwhelming obstacle to overcome, some suggest that there is already reason to panic. ESPN's Jeff Passan believes the Astros may be past the point of no return, reasoning that by the time their injured stars are slated to return, they will have already endured too much lower-tier pitching.

"Even if Hunter Brown, Josh Hader and Cristian Javier return from arm injuries, it won't be until late May at earliest, and by then the Astros will have suffered through two months of rough pitching," writes Passan. "It's one thing to dig a hole. It's another to bury yourself."

Brown, Hader and Javier represent three impact arms that are currently sidelined.

Brown, Houston's ace, was placed on the injured list with a right shoulder strain just two starts into his season. Hader was slated to return as the club's closer this season, but has yet to start the campaign on account of left bicep tendinitis (although he is reportedly nearing a return). Javier would offer another front line rotation arm, but he is currently on the 60-day injured list after suffering a right shoulder strain.

Take those names and throw in the likes of Ronel Blanco, Tatsuya Imai and Nate Pearson, and you have a critical injury situation plaguing Astros pitchers. As such, they own the league's worst ERA (5.96), roughly 8/10's of a run worse than any other ball club. They sit dead last in ERA among both their starting and relief pitching

While those pitching struggles can mostly account for the amount of runs that the team has surrendered, having limited defensive range doesn't help either. Houston has just three players with a positive defensive WAR (dWAR) this season, including Carlos Correa and catchers Christian Vazquez and Yainer Diaz. They also rank 25th league-wide in defensive runs saved (-5).

As Passan notes, the Astros can't afford to keep spiraling and hope that the returns of the likes of Brown, Hader and Javier next month bring about a turn-around. For as valiant an effort as Yordan Alvarez has made in trying to carry the team, the struggles of every starter not named Spencer Arrighetti and a bullpen that doesn't inspire much trust simply isn't a winning recipe.

It's tough to be optimistic about Houston's prospects for the remainder of the 2026 season - Passan certainly isn't.