Astros Hope Top 10 Pitching Prospect Worth Wait After Tommy John Surgery

The Houston Astros drafted this pitcher in 2024 even though they knew it would take him two years to pitch professionally.

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Sometimes, Major League teams must take educated guesses with pitchers who are coming out of college with injuries.

Teams like the Houston Astros must decide if they’re willing to wait on the pitcher to finish his rehab. It’s especially important when it comes to Tommy John surgery. The procedure typically takes 12 to 18 months of recovery time, including the build-up to pitch in a game. The higher you take that player, the more you have invested.

That’s worth considering for a pitcher like Ryan Forcucci, who is the Astros’ No. 8 prospect per MLB Pipeline. He was a third-round pick in 2024 out of UC San Diego. Houston knew he would need time to recover from Tommy John surgery. With his time to pitch finally arriving, MLB.com pointed him out as a breakthrough prospect to watch in 2026.

Ryan Forcucci’s Professional Debut

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Now 23 years old, his MiLB.com page is blank aside from transactions. When he suffered the injury in 2024, Forcucci had emerged as UCSD’s Friday starter for conference games, a coveted spot usually reserved for the team’s best pitcher. Even with the injury and surgery, the Astros drafted him and paid him nearly $1 million in bonus money, knowing pitching in 2025 was unlikely.

Why draft him? In 2023, his sophomore season, he pitched in 14 games, going 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA, which was in the Top 12 in the conference. His 68 strikeouts were also 12th while he held batters to a .206 average at the plate. Before his injury, he had struck out 37 and walked six in 25 innings. Assuming he recovered, he had the raw tools to be something in the Majors.

MLB scouts ranked his fastball as his best asset, as it graded 60 on the 20-80 scale. It’s described as a pitch that averages 92-95 mph and can hit 97 mph, but that was pre-surgery. He’ll have to prove he can achieve that velocity again. He also had a slider that hit the mid-80s and was considered a plus pitch with tight spin.

Forcucci is at the point in his recovery when he should be able to use spring training as an opportunity to build up for his first pro season. Where he lands coming out of camp is an intriguing question. For now, he’s assigned to the Astros’ Florida Complex League team. That is not a full-season affiliate and those start in April. If Houston wanted to start him sooner, it could assign him to Class-A Fayetteville or High-A Asheville.

Both are options for a pitcher that could be a godsend to the Houston Astros’ starting rotation in a couple of years. How fast he develops will be interesting to watch in 2026. If he makes a breakthrough, as MLB.com expects, he could move fast.