Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for the Astros During the 2025 MLB Season

These are the best and worst-case scenarios for the Houston Astros during the 2025 MLB season.

Sep 7, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros had one of the most notable offseasons out of any team in the league.

Not only did they allow more talent to leave in free agency -- Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi -- but they also actively shipped out key players from past championship-winning teams -- Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly.

Because of that, it's hard to project what exactly this team is going to look like, especially with Jose Altuve shifting to left field for the first time in his professional career and new faces filling in for the departed stars.

Now that Opening Day is here, all the speculation will be put to bed with meaningful games set to be played over the course of the 162-game schedule.

But what type of outcomes could the Astros have this year?

Here are their best and worst-case scenarios.

Best Case

Reach the ALCS

Not many people are expecting Houston to contend this season, and a lot of that is based on the uncertainty created from their eyebrow-raising winter.

Getting back to the American League Championship Series would be a huge win for this franchise, proving that last year was just a fluke when their record streak of seven in a row was snapped. It would also announce to the rest of the AL that the Astros are still a team to deal with in this league for years to come.

Pitching could be the driving force for them to accomplish that.

This seems like Framber Valdez's swan song with the franchise, and after three straight finishes inside the top 10 of AL Cy Young voting, he'll look to add that award to his mantle for the first time in his career.

Behind him, Hunter Brown looks like a future ace. Spencer Arrighetti was the organization's top pitching prospect last season, and despite some rough patches during his first taste of The Show in 2024, he flashed immense potential. Ronel Blanco was a breakout star last year. Hayden Wesneski could be a consistent starter for them. And they should be getting Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia back at some point.

The offense is more of a mystery, but the upside is there.

Cam Smith made the Opening Day roster, and he could be the game's next superstar based on what he's shown in his short career thus far. Yordan Alvarez and Altuve are still dominant in the batter's box. Christian Walker has 30-plus homer potential. Same with Isaac Paredes.

If everything clicks, Houston can get back to the ALCS, and if that happens, they've shown anything is possible for them when they reach that point.

Worst Case

Miss the Playoffs

2016 was the last time the Astros missed the playoffs, winning their first-ever World Series in 2017 which started a modern dynasty that resulted in another championship and four total trips to the Fall Classic.

But if the experiment the decision makers have put together goes wrong, that streak of posteason appearances for Houston will end.

Altuve could be a disaster in left field, forcing a move back to second where his defense is already the worst in Major League Baseball. Smith might not be ready. Alvarez could get hurt. Jeremy Pena might never reach the form he had in 2022. Paredes's production could pale in comparison to what Bregman had done. Tucker's consistency might sorely be missed.

Plus, the pitching staff could also not perform well.

It's not a given that Arrighetti will take the next step in his career. Regression could come for Blanco. Wesneski might just be an average guy and not a difference maker.

If that happens, there isn't enough talent on this roster to carry them over the course of a long season, especially with the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners catching up to the Astros in their own division.