MLB Analyst Gives Astros Troublesome Record Projection for 2026 Season

The Houston Astros are one of the more complex teams in Major League Baseball this season and one of the more questionable teams as well. After winning 87 games and missing the playoffs, Houston could be on a downward spiral no one thought was coming anytime soon.

Following the Jeremy Peña injury news, along with closer Josh Hader being closely watched this spring with bicep discomfort, the Astros have to rely on players they relied on to win their first World Series championship almost a decade ago in 2026.

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Astros on .500 Watch

Astros home stadium. — A view of the ballpark, the field, and the sunset during the playing of the national anthem. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The competition in the AL West division has only gotten more intense, so much so that the Astros have been deemed a franchise to be on .500 watch by MLB.com's Mike Petriello.

Since Joe Espada has taken over as manager, Houston has been around 90 wins, making this prediction a bold one at that. But seeing the state of the franchise so far this spring, on top of last season, Petriello suggests that they are starting to slip through the cracks.

"After winning the 2022 World Series, they’ve taken a step back each year. Valdez did indeed depart. There’s considerable worry about Josh Hader’s arm, and there might be too many infielders, yet not enough outfielders. This is part of why they’re projected for an 81-81 record," Petriello wrote.

But before we jump the gun, let's reel it back in and look at the franchise that Houston is rolling out on the field this season. Ace Hunter Brown is going to be dominant as he was last year, and they still possess one of the biggest power threats in all of MLP in Yordan Alvarez.

Yordan Alvarez smiles. — Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44) poses for a photo during media day. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Alvarez didn't play a full season, and his presence was missed greatly. He made his spring debut not too long ago and looks to be the difference maker for the Astros to get back to the playoffs. On top of that, it's not smart to count out Jose Altuve until he gives you a reason to.

A lot feels like it would have to go wrong for the Astros to fall all the way down to a .500 record. With how things are looking, projections are projections for a reason, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Houston take somewhat of a step back this year, while still being in the playoff hunt.

It doesn't feel like the year that Houston falls out of their strong days just yet, not until their pitching shows signs of it in the regular season.