MLB Analysts Pitch Astros Reunion with Legendary Former Staff Ace

If one site has it right, the Houston Astros won’t be spending much money in free agency and will be re-connecting with a former staff ace.

Detail photo of Houston Astros spring training cap. during workouts at spring training. | Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

November is the start of baseball’s hot stove league. Some call it talking season. Others call it speculating season — especially as it concerns free agency.

MLB free agency just started this week, and few know where any free agents are headed, including Astros left-hander Framber Valdez, who is testing the market for the first time. So, experts and analysts are trying to read the tea leaves and predict where the top free agents will land and for how much.

MLB Trade Rumors doesn’t see the Astros being major spenders in the Top 50. The site ranked each of the Top 50 players, connected them to teams and projected their salaries. Of the site’s four analysts, the Astros were only connected to three players. One was an old friend, right-hander Justin Verlander. In fact, two of MLBTR’s analysts believe he’ll land back in Houston.

Is a Justin Verlander Return to Houston Possible?

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) during the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Oracle Park. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Verlander turns 43 years old in February. MLBTR acknowledged that in projecting that Verlander would get a one-year deal worth $22 million, which is the same value as this year’s qualifying offers for free agents. He was also linked to the New York Yankees and the San Francisco Giants, who he played for in 2025.

He looked done when he left Houston after the 2024 season. His injury-riddled season saw him go 5-6 with a 5.48 ERA. The three-time Cy Young winner and two-time World Series winner didn’t want to go out like that, so he signed a one-year deal worth $15 million with the Giants. On the surface, things didn’t get much better. He avoided injury, but he went 4-11 with a 3.85 ERA in 29 games, with 137 strikeouts and 52 walks in 152 innings.

The Giants weren’t expecting an ace. They didn’t get one. But, Verlander did give them value, especially later in the season. In his last 15 games, he went 4-5 with a 2.99 ERA with 77 strikeouts and 26 walks in 81.1 innings. He was even better in his final seven starts, as he went 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA in 41.1 innings, with 38 strikeouts and 15 walks.

Unlike 2024, where Verlander’s performance looked bleak, his work in the second half of his season leads one to believe he could build on that in 2026. He’s highly motivated to reach 300 wins and still needs 34 victories. He also averaged more than five innings per start, so he didn’t leave his bullpen too exposed last season.

Fit may not be the issue one thinks it might be. Houston parted ways with Luis Garcia and Valdez is likely to sign elsewhere. Three other starters will be on the IL to start 2026 due to Tommy John surgery. Past Hunter Brown, a Cy Young finalist, along with the returning Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier, the Astros could use depth.

Houston doesn’t like to drop long-term deals. They prefer shorter deals with higher average values. Verlander knows he isn’t getting long-term deals anymore and knows the franchise. This is one short-term marriage that would be good for both parties.