Three Ways of Assessing Astros Free Agent Framber Valdez’s Future Contract

The Houston Astros probably aren’t going to get starter Framber Valdez back as it looks like he’s going to get paid handsomely.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) walks on the field with catcher Yainer Diaz (21) before the game against the Seattle Mariners at Daikin Park. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros have a checkered history when it comes to retaining their potential free agents. If they’re not named Jose Altuve, more than likely they’re gone.

The next to test that will be starting pitcher Framber Valdez, who has been one of the best starting pitchers for the Astros the last five years. At age 32 he is entering free agency for the first time. Houston slapped the qualifying off on him. If he accepts, he’ll make $22 million in 2026 and remain with the Astros. If he doesn’t — which is widely expected — he’ll find the best possible deal on the open market.

Chances are, he’ll find a deal that is better than what the Astros are offering with the QO or anything Houston will offer in a long-term deal to keep him. Three different sites have projected Valdez’s value on the open market and it’s quite the range, one that will probably keep him out of Houston for good.

Three Ways of Looking at Framber Valdez’s Contract Value

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Three different sites have published their Top 50 free agents now that qualifying offers have been extended and contract options have been accepted or declined. Valdez is among the Top 10 free agents on all three sites — ESPN, Baseball America (subscription required) and MLB Trade Rumors. All three believe Valdez is in for big money. But they disagree on the amount, duration and average annual value:

MLBTR: Five years, $150 million, $25 million AAV.

ESPN: Six years, $168 million, $28 million AAV.

Baseball America: Seven years, $220 million, $31.4 million AAV.

The key is the average annual value. In all three scenarios, Valdez would get more per year than he would get from the qualifying offer. He and his agent can talk to teams now to assess his value but not sign. If he believes he’ll get more on the open market, which should be the case, he’ll turn down the offer. In fact, only 14 players have accepted the qualifying offer since 2012.

Considering Valdez’s age, it’s likely his suitors will use a variety of mechanisms to reduce their coverage in case of injury or decline, including team options, player options and mutual options. Corbin Burnes signed a six-year, $210 million deal before the 2025 season that came with a potential opt-out in 2026 and deferred money. Whatever Valdez gets, its likely to be life changing.

Valdez is coming off a 2025 in which he went 13-11 with a. 3.66 ERA. He has been one of the most consistent left-handers in baseball since he arrived as a full-time starter in the 2021 season. He is 81-52 for his career with a 3.36 ERA, including 1,053 strikeouts. He went to the All-Star Game twice, claimed a ring with Houston in the 2022 World Series and has finished in the Top 10 in Cy Young voting three different times.