Three X-Factors Who Will Determine Outcome of Astros Upcoming Season

These three players will have the power to make or break the Houston Astros 2026 campaign.

Apr 27, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Houston Astros hat and glove in the dugout during the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros are not the most well-organized franchise in the Major Leagues right now, but they have been working diligently to bolster their roster, particularly in their starting rotation. Looking ahead to their upcoming campaign, it seems like they are slowly starting to put the pieces together.

Nonetheless, much of the weight will be distributed among three key players, all of whom will play an immense role in bringing Houston back into playoff contention after being eliminated last year. These X-factors hold a lot of power, simply due to to their abilities at the plate and on the mound.

Tatyusa Imai

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As the newest player on the Astros' roster, 27-year-old Tatsuya Imai could need some time adjusting before he truly takes off. However, knowing the fastball and slider he has in his back pocket, Imai is gearing up to be one of Houston's greatest weapons.

While competing in Japan in 2025, he registered a career-best 1.92 ERA and 178 strikeouts through 163.2 innings pitched. As a result, he became a three-time All-Star in NPB. With Imai bolstering the Astros' starting rotation, the franchise could be approaching quite a comeback season.

Yordan Alvarez

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Once slugger Yordan Alvarez found his way to the injured list last year, Houston seemed to plummet. Between a fractured hand and later, a severe ankle sprain, Alvarez was sidelined for much of his 2025 campaign. However, during his healthy stints, he slashed .23/.367/.430 with a .77 OPS. Along the way, he logged six homers and 27 RBIs.

As manager Joe Espada stated during this offseason, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, "I think that's going to be one of our goals, is how do we keep Yordan Alvarez healthy?"

This is truly the defining question of the Astros' upcoming season. Without Alvarez, the chances of missing the playoffs for a second year in a row will increase.

Hunter Brown

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With right-hander Hunter Brown serving as Houston's top pitcher, he automatically becomes one of the ball club's most crucial X-factors. This stands even more true with the southpaw ace Framber Valdez likely on his way out the door. Imai is expected to carry a substantial amount of weight behind Browd, but that doesn't mean the Astros are in the clear.

Last season, Brown recorded a 2.43 ERA and 206 strikeouts in 185.1 innings pitched. Heading into their next season, Espada has expressed confidence in his rotation, but of course, their success is entirely dependent on the health of his players.

2025 was a brutal season for Houston, but if Imai, Alvarez and Brown can keep a clean bill of health, the pieces are bound to fall into place and bring the franchise back to playoff contention.

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