One Troubling Trend Could Become a Major Problem for Astros in October

The Houston Astros need to figure this out if they want to be a contender in the playoffs.

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Houston Astros home run numbers have hit a bit of a dip in recent months. The team is still among the top teams (currently fifth in the majors) in home runs, but their numbers have considerably cooled off since the end of July.

Up to the end of July, the Astros were averaging 1.39 home runs per game. Since then, they have been hitting 1.03 home runs per game with just one game of more than two home runs since the beginning of August. This ‘since-July’ home run rate would rank in the bottom six in the majors.

Hitting home runs correlates strongly with winning, as one might expect. In losses this year, the Astros have averaged fewer than a home run per game (0.94 home runs per game) compared to wins (1.67 home runs per game).

Alvarez’s Cooling-Off

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Yordan Alvarez is a big factor in these numbers dropping off. He has hit two home runs since the beginning of August (51.0 at bats per home run) compared to his red-hot pace in the first four months of the season when he posted a home run every 11.3 at bats.

Luckily for Alvarez, his downward slide has also come with a higher batting average on balls in play. He had a .332 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in the first four months compared to .342 in August and September.

As a result of the lower home run output, Alvarez’s OPS took a dip in the last 30 games, with a still respectable .874 OPS compared to 1.077 in the first four months of 2026.

Home Runs With Runners On Base

A number that held the Astros back this year is their runs per home run metric. The Astros have seemed to hit more solo shots than their opponents in 2026. The Astros have 0.508 runners on base per home run with 185 home runs and 279 RBI on those homers. The major league average is .584 runners on per home runs.

Astros pitching has allowed .650 runners on base per homer. This is probably attributable to some bad luck, but it may also be the Astros having weaker pitching out of the stretch. It’s hard to say why the Astros offense does not hit as many home runs with runners on base as the rest of the league. This statistic could be flipped by year’s end.

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Astros offense has taken a dip in home runs about the same time Yordan stopped hitting home runs at a torrid pace. The team has managed to play well during this stretch thanks to an increase in value from their starting pitching.

If the team does make the postseason, you would like to see them back to their old home run-hitting ways to score runs and chase pitchers from ballgames.