What History Tells Us About A's New Strikeout Record

Getting swept by the reigning American League chamopions to start the season certainly isn't ideal, but it's understandable. The Toronto Blue Jays added to an already solid roster over the offseason, and the A's ended up being the guinea pigs for them to show off their new additions. Dylan Cease held the A's in check on Saturday, and Kazuma Okamoto drilled his first homer on Sunday.

It's not the fact that the A's got swept that's the issue from the first three games, but instead how it happened. On Friday, the green and gold defense is what propelled the Jays to victory, while on Saturday it was the deployment of the bullpen that left us scratching our heads.

On Sunday they were largely shut down, while starter Eric Lauer and the Toronto bullpen continued a streak that had been started the previous two games. Jays pitchers ended up striking out another 15 batters on Sunday, giving the A's 50 total strikeouts over the three-game series.

This is now a new MLB record, surpassing the 2020 Detroit Tigers previous tally of 46. That Tigers team actually won two of their first three against the Cincinnati Reds, but they finished with a 23-35 record in the shortened campaign.

History with strikeouts provides some hope

Since 2020, those Tigers lead the way in worst strikeout rate by an entire team with a 27.3% rate across those 58 games. Last year's Los Angeles Angels rank second (first in a full season) at 27.1%. Interestingly, both clubs also finished with a 92 wRC+ as a team. The A's are projected to be a much better offensive club, perhaps even as high as a top-5 offense when the season is through.

Right behind both of those clubs are the 2020 Tampa Bay Rays, who finished with a 26.9% strikeout rate, but also had a 111 wRC+ as a team, which could be closer the expectations for the A's this season. That team also made it to the World Series, and one of their best arms was relief pitcher Nick Anderson, who is in the A's system at the moment.

While the A's have struck out 50 times this season, good for a rate of 45.45%, it's tough to see Jacob Wilson and Jeff McNeil not making some adjustments. Both are extreme contact hitters, with Wilson striking out just 7.5% of the time last year, and McNeil at 11.9%. So far this season McNeil has struck out three times in eight at-bats (37.5%), and Wilson has K'd in 5-of-13 (38.5%).

Those rates don't figure to continue at that clip.

The other side of the coin

Going back to the history of teams with high strikeout rates, hanging around the same area were the 2024 Seattle Mariners, who struck out 26.8% of the time and held a 104 wRC+. They ended up winning 85 games that season, and missed the postseason. That club also had a team ERA of 3.49, which was tied with the Atlanta Braves for the best in baseball.

The 2020 Rays similarly ranked highly in ERA, fifth overall, with a 3.56. So the teams that finished with positive records while striking out a lot also had top-of-the-line pitching staffs.

The 2020 Tigers held a team ERA of 5.63, ranking them last, while the Angels from last year were a spot behind the A's at 4.89, ranking them 28th. The A's pitching staff has some players that could take a step forward and make them a better group than last year, but we're going to have to see a few more games before making any declarations on that front.

It also doesn't help that the A's play in a hitter-friendly environment, which will do wonders for their run totals, but may not set them up to have the pitching staff needed to ultimately compete for a postseason berth, if the strikeouts continue.

The A's offense is too talented to continue striking out at this rate, so the hope is that this isn't a lasting issue for the club to contend with. Because if these strikeouts linger deep into the season, the A's may not have the high-level arms to combat the recent history that comes with it.

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