Blue Jays Have More Reasons for Optimism Than Their Record Suggests
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Zooming out on the Blue Jays' season, it certainly has not gone as expected.
The expected strengths, like hitting and defense, have been weaknesses, while the question marks, like the bullpen and, to a lesser extent, the rotation, have become strengths.
Injuries have been a huge part of the story. Toronto has not quite had injuries from A to Z, but it has from B (Barger, Berrios, and Bieber) to Y (Yesavage), with the S's particularly well represented by Santander, Scherzer, and Springer.
Sprinkle in letters for Cease, Garcia, Kirk, Lukes, and Ponce, and the injured list has been an alphabet soup.
There is a next man up mentality in sports, but if, during Spring Training, you foresaw a lineup in late May that included Charles McAdoo, Yohendrick Piñango, and Brandon Valenzuela, come on down as the next contestant on The Price Is Right.
And if you had a premonition that on May 29th, Toronto would run out a bullpen game of Adam Macko, Austin Voth, Connor Seabold, Mason Fluharty for the win, and Braydon Fisher for the save, please buy a lottery ticket.
And buy one for me as well.
Yet, the Jays did win last night, moving to .500 (29-29) for the first time since April 4th, when they were 4-4. They have won eight of their last ten.
Despite All the Injuries, Toronto Would Be a Wild Card Team
If the season ended today, Toronto would be the third-wild-card (1.5 games up on the Athletics) and travel to the Pacific Northwest for a rematch of the ALCS with Seattle.
Fangraphs gives the Blue Jays a 56% chance of making the playoffs, but just a 3% chance of winning the AL East. They have Toronto with a 3.2% chance of winning the World Series, which ranks 9th, well behind the Dodgers (24%) and Yankees (17%).
Of course, the season does not end today.
If the Major League season were a hockey game, we would be 1:29 into the second period. So let's use this as a marker to take stock of what has gone well, what has not, and what history tells us about the Blue Jays' chances.
The Big Picture — Toronto Is the Very Definition of a .500 Team So Far
What Has Gone Well
Strong Starting Pitching Especially at the Top of the Rotation
As the table above indicates, the pitching has been really good. The Blue Jays rank 9th in Runs Allowed per 5th in K/9 at 9.2, 8th in BB/9 at 3.1, and 4th in K/BB at 2.95. The latter is one of the best indicators of pitching performance since it removes some of the luck associated with batted balls. The Pitching Wins Above Replacement as a staff is 8.8 versus just 3.2 for the batting.
Perhaps more importantly for the rest of the season and a potential playoff run, the front three of Gausman, Cease, and Yesavage have been exceptional. Among starters with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, Cease (3.05) and Gausman (3.13) rank 10th and 12th in the American League, respectively.
If Yesavage had enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, he would rank 5th at 2.25. and is the only starter in baseball with more than 30 innings pitched who has yet to yield a home run.
A Now Settled Bullpen Has Become A Strength
Early in the season, the bullpen was one of Toronto's biggest question marks. It included arsonists like Brendon Little and his 24.55 ERA.
Now it is one of Toronto's strengths.
Louis Varland has been the best reliever in baseball, even ahead of the more renowned Mason Miller. Varland has a 0.30 ERA and leads the team in WAR at 1.9, which is almost unheard of for a reliever. He would very likely be voted the Team MVP. He is the only reliever in baseball with more than 30 innings pitched who has yet to allow a home run.
Varland taking over as closer for the struggling Jeff Hoffman has also helped settle bullpen roles. Hoffman has righted the ship as a setup man, and the 7-8-9 of Hoffman, Rogers, and Varland is a clear strength. Braydon Fisher is also squarely in John Schneider's Circle of Trust,
What Has Not Gone Well
The Hitting — The Stars Have Not Come Out Yet
Last year Toronto ranked 4th in baseball at 4.93 runs per game. This year it ranks 22nd at 4.03 runs per game. That has to change for the Blue Jays to get where they want to go.
Some of this dip is due to injuries, but the two biggest stars, Guerrero Jr. and Springer, have not played up to their usual standards, especially in terms of power, and Daulton Varsho has regressed as well.
In the two League Championship Series and World Series last year, there were 18 total games. In three of them, the two teams hit the same number of home runs. In the remaining 15, the team that hit more home runs went 14-1.
World Series trophies dig the long ball.
The Defense Has Taken a Step Backwards
Defensive statistics are harder to measure, but many metrics show the Toronto defense has not been nearly as good as last year, despite having former Gold Glovers in Guererro Jr., Gimenez and Varsho, plus 2025 nominees Clement and Kirk.
Last year, Toronto ranked 16th in Defensive Efficiency (balls in play converted to outs). This year they are 27th. Last year, Toronto had 5% more errors than the MLB Average (86 vs. 82). This year as a team they have 31% more (38 vs. 29).
Some of this is due to having to put poor defenders like Piñango in the field due to the injuries. And it is not just errors. He butchered two balls on Monday that broke open a winnable game.
Recent History Provides Reasons for Optimism
- 15 of the past 16 World Series losers have made the playoffs the following season.
- 14 of the 16 won at least 90 games, and the lowest win total among the 16 was 87.
- 11 of the 16 made the League Championship Series.
- 5 made the World Series and 2 won it
Slow Starts Have Not Been Fatal
- On May 25th last season, the Blue Jays were 25-27, seven games back in the division and three games back in the Wild Card.
- On May 24th, the 2019 Washington Nationals were 19-31. They won the World Series.
- The 2021 Braves did not have a winning record until August 6th and had lost Ronald Acuna Jr. due to injury. They went on to win the World Series
Kirk, Barger, and Bieber are progressing towards returns. Yesavage is back. Springer is back and getting healthier.
If the big bats wake up, expect Toronto to easily make the playoffs and once again be a formidable foe when they get there.
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Adam Steinmetz writes about the Toronto Blue Jays for SI.com. Adam is also the editor and publisher of the Boston Sunday Sports Section, a weekly digital publication covering the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins. A two-time winner of the Best Collegiate Sports Writer award in Philadelphia, he began his career with freelance work for The Philadelphia Daily News and The Palm Beach Post before building a successful career outside of journalism. He returned to sports writing last year, contributing to Pitcher List—including coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays—before launching Authorenticity on Substack, where he explores the human stories within baseball. The Boston Sunday Sports Section is his most ambitious project — the thinking fan’s modern Sunday Sports Section focused on the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins.