Blue Jays Slugger is in a Serious Drought in One Important Category

The Toronto Blue Jays need more production from one of their top players.

A detailed view of a Toronto Blue Jays hat. | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

There are plenty of areas to point to when evaluating the Toronto Blue Jays' slow start to the 2026 season. Injuries may be chief among them, as they've been dealt several blows to the starting rotation and the lineup.

The offensive inconsistencies are another reason for Toronto's 18-23 record. In May, the offense has looked terrific at times, scoring 21 runs in three games against the Minnesota Twins and turning in a 14-run effort against the Los Angeles Angels on Saturday.

But they've also scored two or fewer runs four times in May. The Blue Jays rank 24th in total runs scored (169) and 20th in home runs (39). There is one player who can help with both of those issues.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is Lacking Power

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reacts after striking out. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The month of May has not been kind to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He's currently 5-37 with a .220 on-base percentage. However, he's only struck out five times with four walks. His slash line still sits at .300/.386/.387 with 17 RBIs.

It's that .387 slugging percentage that is concerning. Guerrero Jr's last home run was on April 20th against the Angels. In Monday's 8-5 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, shortstop Andrés Gímenéz hit as many home runs in one game as Guerrero Jr. has all season.

In fact, Guerrero Jr. hasn't had an extra-base hit in 50 plate appearances. He hit a double on April 28th and hasn't been able to achieve that since. That is shocking. It's still early in the season, but the Blue Jays need their superstar to hit for power and drive this offense.

The Numbers That Attribute to Guerrero Jr's Slower Start

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits. | Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

As mentioned earlier, there are certainly some positives when assessing Guerrero Jr's 2026 season. His 11.7 percent strikeout rate ranks in the 95th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. Putting the ball in play is always better than striking out, obviously.

His bat speed also ranks in the 95th percentile, so he's coming around to the baseball fine. The problem is that his average exit velocity (90.4 mph) dipped from last year, and his 9.2 percent barrel percentage is in the 58th percentile. Essentially, Guerrero Jr. is putting the ball in play but not hard enough to warrant extra-base hits.

In the meantime, third baseman Kazuma Okamoto has been a tremendous bat in the lineup, leading the team with 10 home runs, and is currently riding a 10-game hit streak. Worrying about Guerrero Jr. should only be a short-term issue. He's one of the best hitters in baseball, but Toronto needs more slug from their star first baseman.