How Alex Bregman’s Reported Red Sox Offer Helps Blue Jays in Free Agency

The Toronto Blue Jays are believed to be interested in signing one of the top three free agents position players on the board.

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For much of the offseason, the work around how much Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette might get paid in free agency has been theoretical.

On Friday, two reports put a bit less theory and a bit more actual around the pursuit of Bregman.

Earlier in the day, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Red Sox had made an “aggressive” offer to Bregman, indicating that he believed the slugger would ultimately land in Boston. Later that day, Marino Pepén, who covers the Red Sox and the MLB for Spanish-language publications and radio, had sources that put numbers to an offer — five years, $160 million.  

If the latter report is accurate, that would be an average annual value of $32 million per year. It’s $8 million less than he would have made had he not triggered his option on the deal he signed last year. But it’s a longer term, five years as opposed to three years with options.

Assuming this report is accurate, it gives the Toronto Blue Jays a glimpse of what it might take to sign Bregman, Tucker or Bichette.

Blue Jays Chasing Top of the Market Hitting

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At the start of free agency, MLB Trade Rumors projected deals for all three players. Tucker was 11 years at $400 million. Bichette was eight years at $208 million. Bregman was six years at $160 million.

The reported offer hits the exact figure MLBTR posted in November at one fewer year. The AAV is something that players crave. But is this a sign that the market is softening for all three players, or that the market the site predicted two months ago is still there for all three players?

It’s possible both things are true. If so, then it means the Blue Jays need to prepare to act on acquiring their target, whoever that might be.  

Toronto met with Tucker at their Dunedin facility last month. This isn’t necessarily a Shohei Ohtani situation. He’s from nearby Tampa and makes his offseason home there. Tucker would augment Toronto’s already powerful outfield and lineup. But the cost is high, if MLBTR’s projection is correct. He would add $36.3 million to the payroll each year and, given the duration, he would likely end his career in Toronto alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Blue Jays have been willing to spend money this offseason. Is Tucker a bridge too far? What about Bichette?

MLBTR’s projection had him making $26 million per year. He solves Toronto’s middle infield issue and his flexibility at second base could allow Toronto to move Andres Gimenez back to shortstop.

Olney’s report reveals the market is moving for Bregman. Once it starts moving for Tucker and Bichette, the Blue Jays have a decision to make.