Middling Projections Make Blue Jays' Need for Starting Pitching Urgent
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The Toronto Blue Jays have surprised a lot of people with their recent performance, seizing control of the American League East with their torrid play.
They have opened up a 5.5-game lead over the New York Yankees with a 63-43 record, now owning the best record not only in the AL, but in the entire MLB.
Performing at an incredibly high level, the Blue Jays are in a great position just a few days ahead of the MLB trade deadline.
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With things being wide open, they should be aggressively pursuing upgrades to address the weaknesses that currently exist on their roster.
At the top of that list is the starting rotation, as Toronto ranked No. 3 in the MLB trade deadline urgency index from by The Athletic (subscription required) when it comes to starting pitching.
“The Blue Jays rotation is OK. Over the last month, it has had an ERA near four with good peripherals (the fifth-best strikeout-minus-walk rate) and the 10th-best Wins Above Replacement. Going forward, FanGraphs has the group as the 16th best by WAR. There are credible veterans on this squad who know how to pitch,” wrote Eno Sarris of The Athletic.
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Toronto has received solid production from Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman throughout the campaign, as all three have consistently taken the ball when it has been their turn through the rotation.
That trio has all made at least 21 starts, has an ERA between 3.82 and 3.88 and has thrown at least 120.2 innings. Their ERA+ figures are 109, 108 and 110, respectively.
That is an incredibly solid for manager John Schneider to rely on, but as Sarris pointed out, projections have them as a middle-of-the-pack group going forward, at best.
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A big reason for that is the uncertainty in the rotation behind that trio.
Max Scherzer has flashed at times, but just turned 41 years old and has already spent significant time on the injured list this season. Bowden Francis, who struggled to replicate his success from 2024, is currently sidelined.
Arguably their best performer over the last few weeks has been veteran Eric Lauer, whose 2.1 bWAR is the highest on the entire pitching staff.
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Alas, not only do the Blue Jays have questions about the rotation down the stretch in 2025, there are long-term questions to answer as well.
Bassitt and Scherzer are both set to hit free agency this winter. Gausman will do the same after the 2026 season.
Finding a pitcher who not only helps this year, but is under team control beyond 2025, would be an ideal outcome.
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