Recent History Says the Blue Jays Should Think Twice Before Selling at the Deadline
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Many think the Blue Jays should sell at the trade deadline. Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho, and George Springer could all bring healthy returns, particularly Gausman.
Buying or selling is probably the top question on the minds of Blue Jays fans right now, with many moving to the sell camp after the disappointing ending to the first half.
A look back at the Blue Jays' return from their last trade deadline sell-off in 2024 says to think twice.
Part of the reason for the Blue Jays' struggles so far this year is that the 14 players acquired at the trade deadline or subsequently acquired for some of those players (e.g., Brandon Valenzuela for Will Wagner) have contributed a total of only .5 bWAR (Baseball Reference WAR) to this year's Major League club.
In fact, the most noteworthy aspect of the Blue Jays' 2024 trade deadline selloff came just weeks later, when Danny Jansen became the first player ever to appear for both teams in the same game, after the game was suspended when he was a Blue Jay and resumed when he was a Red Sox. Jansen, in fact, became the catcher for the Red Sox for an at-bat that began when he was a Blue Jay and even batted for both teams in the same inning.
There are still some prospects in the organization that could bear fruit, so the final story is not written, but Toronto's return from the 2024 trade deadline should give pause to those advocating for another sale.
The prospect lottery ticket trades that yield a Junior Caminero or a Yordan Alvarez are the exception and not the rule.
2024 Trade Deadline Summary
Two years ago today, on July 15th, 2024, Toronto had a 45-52 record, nearly identical to their 45-51 record today. Because the American League is so middling this season the Blue Jays had just a 2% chance of making the playoffs according to Fangraphs odds at the time versus their current 20% chance.
The direction was clear. Sell anything not nailed down, and especially players who were going to be free agents after the season.
The front office went to work:
The work has not yielded much to date.
The Major Leaguers
Five players acquired from that deadline have played for the 2026 Toronto Blue Jays with a combined WAR of +.5.
Brandon Valenzuela, who arrived at the 2025 deadline in return for the 2024 deadline acquisition of Will Wagner, is the only one with a solidly positive WAR of 1.0. Yohendrick Pińango and Jesus Sanchez have been so poor defensively that the limited offensive upside they have displayed has been more than offset by poor defense, a big reason Pińango is now in Buffalo.
The Prospects
The most heralded prospect Toronto acquired at the 2024 deadline was Jake Bloss, who arrived in the Yusei Kikuchi deal. Bloss had an ERA under 2 with the Astros' Double-A affiliate in Corpus Christi and had even made three starts for the Astros before the deadline. His time in Toronto has been marred by Tommy John surgery and ineffectiveness.
He has pitched to a combined record of 0-9 as a Blue Jay minor leaguer with an ERA well over 6.
And Bloss is the highest-ranked prospect in the group, ranking 8th on MLB Pipeline's Blue Jays Top 30.
Three others also rank in the Top 30 - RJ Schreck at 9th, Cutter Coffey at 23rd and McAdoo at 24th.
Jay Harry has probably had the most impressive season among the prospects acquired at the 2024 deadline, even though he is not in the Top 30 lists. After struggling mightily in 2025, he has a combined .937 OPS and 13 home runs across Double-A and Triple-A. But with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 61:15, he is no sure thing either.
Still, none are anywhere near Top 100 prospects and none are anywhere near locks to become solid major league contributors.
The Story is Not Yet Complete
We are still just two years out from the 2024 Deadline. The story is not yet complete as to what some of the acquired players could become. Development is not linear.
All that said, with a 20% chance of making the playoffs and a wide-open American League with no dominant team, Toronto should not be so eager to start selling. Holding for two more weeks would make the most sense to see if the Blue Jays can play up to their 2025 potential.
Deadline selloffs don't always bear much fruit.
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Adam Steinmetz writes about the Toronto Blue Jays for On SI. Adam is also the editor and publisher of the Boston Sunday Sports Section, a weekly digital publication covering the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins. A two-time winner of the Best Collegiate Sports Writer award in Philadelphia, he began his career with freelance work for The Philadelphia Daily News and The Palm Beach Post before building a successful career outside of journalism. He returned to sports writing last year, contributing to Pitcher List—including coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays—before launching Authorenticity on Substack, where he explores the human stories within baseball. The Boston Sunday Sports Section is his most ambitious project — the thinking fan’s modern Sunday Sports Section focused on the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins.