The Blue Jays Blueprint for Beating the Rangers
In this story:
The Blue Jays and Rangers have a "Hey, you lookin' at me?" history.
From the iconic Jose Bautista bat flip.
9 years ago today, Jose Bautista gave us this iconic bat flip 🔥 pic.twitter.com/q7lBXB8dz5
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 14, 2024
To the infamous Rougned Odor punch.
On this day five years ago, Rougned Odor landed this punch on Jose Bautista 😳
— Yahoo Sports MLB (@MLByahoosports) May 15, 2021
(via @MLBONFOX) pic.twitter.com/1lul88f5tG
The temperature has cooled in recent years, but the two clubs are now looking each other square in the eye in the American League wild-card race. And the season is likely over for whoever blinks in this weekend's huge three-game series at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
Both teams trail Cleveland by two games in the "I've got it, no, you take it" race for the American League's third Wild Card spot.
Both own the tiebreaker against the Guardians, who currently hold the third Wild Card and host the Athletics this weekend.
Both would lose a tiebreaker against the White Sox if Cleveland passes them for the AL Central crown.
The Rangers, who hold the tiebreaker over Toronto after a four-game sweep in June, also have a chance to win the AL West. They trail the Astros by just one game, though Houston holds the tiebreaker.
This is essentially a playoff series. The loser won't technically be eliminated, but their playoff chances will dwindle to a Lloyd Christmas-like "So you're telling me there's a chance?" from Dumb and Dumber. It is hard to envision Toronto winning its last six games, which still may not be enough, when their longest winning streak all season is just four games.
Heading into the series, Toronto's Fangraphs playoff odds are 24.8%, while Texas's are 33.3%.
The Pitching Matchups
Friday: Dylan Cease (11-5, 2.38 ERA) vs. Kumar Rocker (5-11, 4.54 ERA), 8:05 p.m.
Saturday: Jose Soriano (12-7, 3.56 ERA) vs.Cal Quantrill (9-5, 2.90 ERA) 7:05 p.m.
Sunday: TBD vs. Jacob deGrom (11-9, 3.79 ERA(, 2:35 p.m.
The Friday night pitching matchup favors Toronto with Dylan Cease, who leads the American League with 236 strikeouts and is battling Cam Schlittler for the AL Cy Young Award, facing off against Kumar Rocker.
While Cease has had the far better season, when the two teams met in late June, Cease only lasted 4.2 innings and took the loss in the Rangers' 7-4 victory.
Meanwhile, Rocker pitched six scoreless innings the next day in a 3-2 win in Texas, completing a four-game sweep.
Since that game, Cease has pitched at least five innings in all thirteen of his starts, going 7-1 with a 1.73 ERA, .89 WHIP and 108 strikeouts in 83 innings.
The Blue Jays will likely throw bullpen games on both Sunday and Tuesday.
On Saturday, Jose Soriano faces the rejuvenated Cal Quantrill.
Soriano has been a different pitcher since coming to Toronto. A big concern is that his strikeouts are way down, though his walks are also down and his ground balls are up. On July 7, while pitching for the Angels, Soriano allowed two runs in six innings against the Rangers.
Cal Quantrill, meanwhile, has been a revelation for Texas. Since August 1st, he has posted the 4th-best ERA (1.80) and 6th-best WHIP (.90) among qualifying pitchers in baseball.
He is particularly tough at home, with a 2.28 ERA versus 3.54 on the road, and has held right-handed batters to a .546 OPS.
On Sunday, the Blue Jays are throwing TBD, which likely stands for Total Bullpen Day, against Jacob deGrom, who has the fifth-best K-BB% in the Majors at 24.9%, just ahead of Dylan Cease at 24.6%.
If the Blue Jays can get into the Texas bullpen, they have a big advantage. The Rangers rank just 21st in bullpen ERA at 4.45, and closer Jacob Latz gave up a go-ahead three-run home run to Trevor Story in Thursday night's 4-3 loss to Boston. The Blue Jays bullpen comes into the series better rested, as the Rangers' closer Latz and top setup man Jakob Junis both pitched Thursday night.
At The Plate
Texas ranks 25th in baseball in runs scored, and the Blue Jays are tied for last with the Los Angeles Angels. The Rangers' home ballpark, Globe Life Field, has been the second-best pitcher's park in baseball over the past three years, behind only Seattle.
The Blue Jays, though, have been much better since the trade deadline, ranking 15th in baseball in runs scored thanks in part to trade deadline acquisitions, Brett Bateman and Josh Smith.
Bateman has been a catalyst at the top of Toronto's lineup with a .333 average and a .400 OBP. Smith, who came over from the Rangers, has an .896 OPS in Toronto with five home runs versus just one home run and a .571 OPS with Texas.
The Rangers' offense is led by Corey Seager, who has a .590 SLG in September. From a power standpoint, Joc Petersen and Jake Burger are tied for the team lead with 26 home runs, and Burger leads the Rangers in RBIs with 84.
A surprise second in RBI is Ezequiel Duran, who leads the Rangers by a wide margin in Fangraphs WAR at 4.7, thanks largely to his defense and versatility. Duran has played everywhere this season except as a pitcher or catcher.
In The Field
Fielding is the Blue Jays' biggest edge over Texas. Toronto ranks 7th in baseball with 44 defensive runs saved, while Texas ranks 19th with six defensive runs saved.
Toronto's biggest defensive advantage is at catcher, where the tandem of Alejandro Kirk and Brandon Valenzuela has helped the Blue Jays lead baseball with 21 defensive runs saved, ahead of the 2nd-highest team with 12.
The Blue Jays Blueprint to Winning the Series
Win Friday night and have Dylan Cease pitch at least six innings
For the Blue Jays to take the series, they must win Friday night. Cease needs to pitch well and go deep into the game to set up the bullpen for the weekend. In his earlier start against Texas, he walked five batters, which kept him from making it through the fifth inning.
The Blue Jays will likely throw bullpen games on both Sunday and Tuesday.
With more openers than Taylor Swift, not using all their high-leverage arms on Friday would set them up well for the rest of the weekend.
John Schneider, however, needs to treat every remaining game like an all-hands-on-deck playoff game when it comes to using his bullpen, or they will have all winter to rest.
Play from Ahead
In the June series, the Blue Jays did not score in the first four innings in any of the four games. They trailed 6-0, 5-0, 5-0, and 2-0.
When opponents score in the first inning this season, Toronto is just 13-35, the 2nd-worst record in baseball. They are just 7-62 when trailing after seven innings, the 5th-worst mark in baseball.
It is a vrery different story when playing from ahead.
#BlueJays50 are an MLB-best 28-5 when scoring first since June 16, 2026. pic.twitter.com/BPgUdNOxiW
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) September 18, 2026
The Blue Jays' high-leverage reliever trio of Varland, Rogers, and Miles is one of the best in the game. When they fall behind, arsonists like Michael Lorenzen and Brendan Little make it hard to claw their way back.
Miles is the only Rule 5 pick from last year's Rule 5 draft ick still on the roster of the team that selected him. And for good reason. He has allowed no runs in 19 of his last 20 appearances, including his last 14.
Offense From Vladdy
Guerrero Jr. has struggled mightily all year, but especially against right-handed pitching. Before this season, Guerrero Jr. had a career slugging percentage of .509 against right-handed pitchers. This year, it is .337, trailing Ernie Clement, Myles Straw, and Davis Schneider. Late in games, John Schneider often pinch-hits for the latter two against righties.
The Blue Jays really have only Bateman, Lukes, Gimenez, and Smith as left-handed batters to face the Rangers' three right-handed starters. The Blue Jays' right-handed sluggers, Okamoto, Springer, and Guerrero Jr., will need to step up. With the aircraft carrier off his back for not having homered at home, perhaps he can heat up just when Toronto needs him most.
A Prediction
Ella Langley might be Choosin' Texas, but I am choosing Toronto. The Blue Jays will win two of three: a blowout Friday night behind seven strong from Dylan Cease, a tight, low-scoring win on Saturday, and a frustrating Sunday loss to Jacob deGrom, while Rangers fans are busy watching the Cowboys.
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Adam Steinmetz writes about the Toronto Blue Jays for On SI. Adam is also the editor and publisher of the Boston Sunday Sports Section, a weekly digital publication covering the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins. A two-time winner of the Best Collegiate Sports Writer award in Philadelphia, he began his career with freelance work for The Philadelphia Daily News and The Palm Beach Post before building a successful career outside of journalism. He returned to sports writing last year, contributing to Pitcher List—including coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays—before launching Authorenticity on Substack, where he explores the human stories within baseball. The Boston Sunday Sports Section is his most ambitious project — the thinking fan’s modern Sunday Sports Section focused on the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins.