Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Has Struggled to Find His Power at Rogers Centre
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been flat-out bad this season by his usual standards and has been particularly punchless at home. He returns to Rogers Centre on Tuesday to begin a six-game homestand, starting with a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals. Guerrero enters with seven home runs this season, and every single one has come on the road.
Guerrero last went deep there during the regular season on Aug. 17, 2025, when he homered against Texas Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi. MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson noted on the one-year anniversary that Guerrero had gone 333 plate appearances without another regular-season homer.
He went deep three times at Rogers Centre during last year’s postseason, including his grand slam against the New York Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS. The drought is therefore limited to the regular season, but that qualifier is unlikely to soothe Blue Jays fans who expected far more from the half-billion-dollar slugger.
Has Vlad Always Been This Bad at Home?
There is enough year-to-year variance in Vladdy’s home-road splits to make you wonder whether he flips a coin to determine where he will hit better. In 2026, 2025, 2023 and 2019, Guerrero has been better on the road, posting OPS marks of .731, .901, .858 and .865, respectively.
In 2024, 2021 and the shortened 2020 season, Guerrero was better at home, posting OPS marks of .970, 1.133 and .946, respectively. Those seasons do come with some important context, though. Toronto played its 2020 home schedule in Buffalo, while its 2021 home games were split between TD Ballpark, Sahlen Field and Rogers Centre due to pandemic restrictions.
That makes the enormous 2021 split (1.133 at home compared to .875 on the road) more difficult to compare directly with a normal season in Toronto.
Statcast’s three-year park factors show that several of Guerrero’s division rivals play in ballparks that are more favorable to home runs than the major league average. Rogers Centre has an overall park factor of 101 and a home-run factor of 106, while Baltimore and New York sit at 110 and 117, respectively. Tampa Bay is the exception, with an overall park factor of 97 and a home-run factor of 91.
Tampa Bay does favor triples, although that particular quirk is unlikely to matter much for Guerrero.
What matters is how well he rakes when in Baltimore and New York. Guerrero owns a .365 career average with 10 home runs at Camden Yards and has hit .301 with 16 homers at Yankee Stadium.
There are some ballparks that help bring the best out of Guerrero, but he is simply too talented a hitter for park variance to explain his struggles. If the Blue Jays are going to make a serious postseason push, they need their star to start looking like one regardless of which stadium he is in.
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Wesley Dixon is a sports writer focused on thoughtful analysis, roster-building angles, player development and feature-style storytelling. He has covered the Philadelphia 76ers and the NBA, with work centered on breaking down team direction, player fit and the larger stories behind the game. Wesley is a lifelong MLB fan, following multiple teams throughout the league. He is excited to bring that same detail-oriented approach to On SI.