Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Tremendous Start to the Season is Lacking One Key Component

The Toronto Blue Jays are slowly getting healthier as Trey Yesavage returned to the mound on Tuesday. José Berríos is getting closer to a return from a right elbow stress fracture, and the lineup got a boost from George Springer's return.

At full strength, this team can compete with the league's best, but fans haven't seen that product quite yet. They enter Saturday with a 15-17 record coming off a 7-3 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Friday.

Despite the talent, obviously, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains the heart of this operation. One week ago, he became the 12th player in franchise history to play 1,000 games with Toronto. He's had a tremendous start to the year, but there is one category he's surprisingly lacking in.

Guerrero Jr. Hasn't Hit Many Home Runs This Season

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a double. | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

This isn't anything against what Guerrero Jr. has done at the plate this season. The 27-year-old has posted a .339 batting average (second in the American League) and a .426 on-base percentage. His 40 hits lead the team, and he's driven in 15 runs. However, Guerrero Jr. has only hit two home runs this season.

His first home run came on April 4 against the Chicago White Sox, and his second was 16 days later against the Los Angeles Angels. It's still early in the season, but it's been a surprising trend for the Blue Jays' slugger.

According to Statcast, Guerrero Jr.'s average exit velocity sits at 91.3 mph, the lowest since his first season in 2019. His hard-hit percentage (46.1%) is also the lowest since his rookie season. His average launch angle has increased from last year, which could be a good sign that the home runs can start happening more frequently.

Guerrero Jr.'s Power Can Give a Massive Boost to the Lineup

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. runs the bases. | Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images

However, this isn't anything entirely new for Guerrero Jr. In 2024, he hit four total home runs in April and May before hitting eight long balls in June. It hasn't been a huge issue yet, but Toronto is hoping for a similar pattern this season.

Currently, Kazuma Okamoto leads the team with seven home runs, followed by Daulton Varsho and Jesús Sánchez, who have four each. It's not a matter of if Guerrero Jr. can start hitting the long ball; it's when. And when that starts to come around, he raises the ceiling of this lineup.

While Guerrero Jr. is putting up eye-popping numbers in every other category, the lineup could use some more power out of the third spot. There is still plenty of time for that to come together, and it feels like Guerrero Jr. is close to unlocking the power.

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