With Boston 13.5 Games Back, the Blue Jays Should Be Calling About Aroldis Chapman
Brandon Valenzuela walked off the Phillies Monday night.
Toronto should have him keep walking all the way to Boston. And not for when the Blue Jays visit Fenway Park next week for the first time this season. Rather, to convince the Red Sox to trade the best reliever on the market this summer, Aroldis Chapman, to Toronto.
After four consecutive losses to division foes New York and Tampa Bay, it might not be long before the Red Sox flip the sign on the Boston Bullpen Store from Closed to Open. Boston is a season-worst twelve games below .500 and 13.5 GB in the division.
The Red Sox are only 5.5 GB of the Wild Card, but the eight-car pileup in front of or tied with them includes every team in the American League save the Los Angeles Angels. And your season is not going according to plan when you are lumped in with the Angels.
Let's break this potential trade down into two parts - what Toronto gets, and what they would be giving up.
Aroldis Chapman is Pitching the Best Baseball of His Career
Most pitchers don't peak at 37 and 38. Most pitchers are not ArOLDis Chapman.
'The Cuban Missile' is a freak of nature. He holds the MLB record for the fastest pitch ever at 105.1 mph. And while he no longer throws that kind of smoke, he still brings the heat, with an average fastball over 97 mph, which is in the 90th percentile among MLB pitchers.
Those of a certain vintage might remember the Saturday Night Live skit Bill Swerski's Super Fans. These fans of 'Da Bears, and especially their coach Mike Ditka, would ask each other questions like 'Ditka vs. a Hurricane'?
This picture from the National Baseball Hall of Fame raises the question of 'Chapman vs a Tornado'?
And like a tornado, Chapman blows hitters away.
Since the start of 2025, Chapman has pitched 81 innings and allowed a grand total of nine earned runs, which nets out to an ERA of 1.00. This year, in 19.2 innings, he has allowed one earned run for a tidy Varland-esque ERA of 0.46.
In those 81 innings, he has allowed a total of three home runs.
That is a typical Wednesday for Jeff Hoffman.
His peripheral stats are not quite as strong as last season, but he is still striking out one-third of batters. He is a perfect 13-for-13 in save opportunities.
The Blue Jays Will Need A Deeper Bullpen This October
I fully believe Toronto will make the playoffs, even though Fangraphs' current odds put their postseason odds at only 46.6%. As it stands, they would be the third wild-card, and that is with a mash unit on the injury list and Vladdy colder than a January morning in Winnipeg.
I also believe Toronto will be a wild-card team this year rather than a division winner, given the current eight-game deficit to both the Yankees and the Rays. Tampa is playing over its head, and the Yankees will be without Aaron Judge for an extended period of time, so it would not be impossible for Toronto to win the AL East, but Fangraphs playoff odds give the Blue Jays a 3% chance of winning the division.
When Vladimir Guerrero Jr. debuted in 2019, his walk-up song was 'Old Town Road'. Last season in October and even into November, Toronto rode its bullpen 'til it couldn't ride no more.' Louis Varland set a postseason record with 15 appearances. But Mason Fluharty (11) and Jeff Hoffman (10) also reached double digits.
As it stands tnow, Fluharty would be the top lefty out of the Toronto bullpen with the recently demoted Adam Macko likely the second option.
Let's not even give John Schneider the option to use Brendon Little.
With Chapman and Varland, you could essentially make crucial playoff games seven-inning games and let them cover the final two innings in either order, depending on matchups.
That pushes Rogers, Fluharty, and Hoffman to the sixth and seventh, if you even need them. Gausman, Cease, and Yesavage can get you through five plus, and Bieber or Scherzer should give you at least four. It allows you to use Fluharty as more of a lefty specialist earlier in games, knowing you have Chapman still to come.
In the NBA Playoffs, most teams shorten their rotations to around eight players.
The same should be true of MLB Playoff pitching staffs. Gausman, Cease, Yesavage, and Bieber start, and Varland, Chapman, Rogers, Fluharty, and Hoffman in the bullpen would be the same idea (yes, that is nine, but assume one is injured or this wouldn't be the 2026 Blue Jays).
The Blue Jays Bullpen Is Running on Fumes
The other reason to go get Chapman now is that the Blue Jays.' bullpen usage has been alarmingly high thanks to all the injuries in the rotation. This kind of usage usually comes home to roost later in the season.
John Schneider has already walked 500 miles from the dugout to the mound this season. And even a healthy Bieber and Scherzer are likely to five and dive, putting him in the position to walk 500 more.
At the current pace, he will be the man who walks a thousand (Spencer) Miles to the bullpen door. Four of the top 12 American League leaders in relief appearances are Blue Jays. This team needs another late-inning option, especially from the left side.
Don't Cry For Me Valenzuela
Brandon Valenzuela has been a revelation. He arrived at the trade deadline last year with a strong defensive reputation, both for his receiving and throwing. The bat was always the big question mark. From 2022-2025, his minor league OPS were .682, .711, .663, and .692. That screams backup catcher.
But Valenzuela's Major League stats do not at all scream fluke.
As shown by his Baseball Savant page, he is already an elite defender at everything except blocking balls and is an exceptional pitch framer.
His expected slugging percentage of .454 is right in line with his actual slugging percentage of .463, meaning his emerging power has not been a fluke. He walks. He has been above average at barreling the ball.
He has an OPS+ of 120, and Monday night against Jhoan Duran, he showed no moment is too big for him.
You Have to Give In Order To Get
The looming issue is the return of Alejandro Kirk. It seems increasingly unlikely that Valenzuela will be sent back to Triple-A Buffalo. This means Toronto will either need to keep three catchers on the roster to retain Tyler Heineman but limit flexibility elsewhere, or DFA Heineman and, in all likelihood, lose him.
WAR Leaders by Team — Catcher pic.twitter.com/iBJuMuqjq9
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) June 8, 2026
The argument is shifting to whether Valenzuela and Kirk should be a 1A and 1B-type timeshare. As the above tweet illustrates, only five teams have a catcher with a higher WAR than Valenzuela, and two of them, Jeffers and Baldwin, are currently injured. Losing Valenzuela would hurt for sure, but will he be the same guy playing, say, twice a week as a catcher and once a week as a DH?
Or is he more valuable as a trade chip who can get Toronto the best reliever on the market? Put differently, would you rather have Kirk and Valenzuela or Kirk, Heineman, and Aroldis Chapman?
Backup catchers don't play much in October.
With apologies, Toronto fans, elite relievers do.
Aroldis Chapman is a veteran of October baseball and ranks 10th all-time on the MLB saves list with 380. The next left-handed reliever just ahead of Chapman on the all-time saves list is Billy Wagner at 422.
Wagner was known as 'Billy The Kid'.
The Jays traded 'Billy The Kid's' kid, Will Wagner, to San Diego at the trade deadline last summer to get Brandon Valenzuela.
Could Valenzuela net them the reliever they need to get big outs in October? And to help them get there.
Losing Valenzuela would hurt the Blue Jays in the future. He looks like a stud catcher. But rookies often have a hot month, and then the league adjusts.
Flags, on the other hand, fly forever.
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Adam Steinmetz writes about the Toronto Blue Jays for SI.com. Adam is also the editor and publisher of the Boston Sunday Sports Section, a weekly digital publication covering the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins. A two-time winner of the Best Collegiate Sports Writer award in Philadelphia, he began his career with freelance work for The Philadelphia Daily News and The Palm Beach Post before building a successful career outside of journalism. He returned to sports writing last year, contributing to Pitcher List—including coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays—before launching Authorenticity on Substack, where he explores the human stories within baseball. The Boston Sunday Sports Section is his most ambitious project — the thinking fan’s modern Sunday Sports Section focused on the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins.